Jobs famously said: People don’t know what they want until you put it in front of them.

We often have the illusion that we know exactly where we will go in the future, and we also knew exactly where we will go in the past. The success that others achieved in the past also stemmed from clearly knowing their own direction.

A long time ago, I was a less confident person, so every choice I made was made with almost 100% certainty. My articles were always revised again and again. Homework is often put off until just before it is due. Because I want to be in the best learning condition and have the most ample time. In short, I want to eliminate all uncertainties as much as possible. So I kept waiting.

Teacher Xiaolai often said that you know a lot of truths, but you still can’t live a good life. A large part of the reason for this is the lack of practice and the lack of connection between theory and practice. So why is there no practice? Putting aside things like consciousness and inertia, another important factor here is the lack of a fault-tolerant mechanism, that is, the inability to accept uncertainty. But the biggest truth in this world is uncertainty, that is, matter cannot be accurately measured.

01

If you want to travel to Australia during this year’s winter vacation, one way is to determine the specific flights and flights by checking other people’s travel notes, local websites, travel books, etc. Stay in a hotel every night, rent a car, or decide on transportation at each stop, or even decide on a lunch and dinner location based on the delicacies recommended on Lonely Planet; the other is that you want to go to the warm southern hemisphere during the winter vacation and experience The local culture and natural scenery, you only confirmed the round-trip air ticket. When you arrived in Sydney, you suddenly found that there was an Australian Open match in which Li Na participated, and you happened to want to experience the Australian Open in person, so you decided to go to the match first. match. Or maybe you accidentally discovered an opportunity to invest in Sydney real estate because you participated in a local event. After research, you feel that it has potential and you happen to have funds, and all the results have changed.

The difference between the two is that the former assumes the integrity of the vision and locks it into a plan that is difficult to revise, while the latter will rationally revise his goals based on the latest information available to him.

02

Let’s look at the example of another person, Wang Yongqing, founder of Formosa Plastics Group. In 1932, Wang Yongqing was sent by his father to be an apprentice in a rice shop in Chiayi County. A year later, at the age of 16, he borrowed NT$200 from his father to start a business and opened a small rice shop. Problems ensued. Wang Yongqing's store didn't have much business after opening. It had no competitive advantage and no regular customers. However, the rice processing technology at that time was relatively backward, and the rice sold was mixed with rice bran, sand and small stones. After seeing this, Wang Yongqing came up with two ways to create differentiation: one is to pre-process the bran, sand and small stones in the rice. The sand and gravel are selected and sold to customers with high-quality rice; the second is to create a file for each customer, estimate that the customer's rice is about to be eaten, and take the initiative to deliver it to the customer's door. Later, the rice store business was interrupted by the ethnic war. In 1942, Wang Yongqing ended his rice selling business and started a brick factory and timber business. The reason is that after the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, Taiwan's economy began to develop, and the construction industry had the best momentum. Wang Yongqing keenly discovered this and seized the opportunity to run the timber business, which resulted in huge profits. The establishment of Fumao Plastics Company in 1957 (later renamed "Formosa Plastics"), as well as the subsequent "Six Lights" plan, each step of the turn is closely related to the development of the times and the needs of history. If you blindly stick to the rules, you may be in trouble. There will be no subsequent Formosa Plastics empire. By the time Wang Yongqing passed away in 2008, the output value of the "Six Lights" had reached NT$1.47 trillion, accounting for 11.9% of Taiwan's GDP that year.

03

There are countless examples like this. For example, when Steve Jobs founded Apple, he probably never thought that one day he would be fired from the company he founded. He founded NEXT and When I was at Pixar, I probably didn't foresee that one day I would return to Apple. From iPod, iPad to iPhone, every step has exceeded people's expectations.

"There is no such thing as a wasted road, every step counts." The important thing is to listen to your inner voice and make a choice based on the available resources and available information.

As Taleb, the author of "Antifragility" said, if a person can change an action, it means that he has the choice to change. Optionality can take us many places, but fundamentally it makes you antifragile, helping you benefit from the positive aspects of uncertainty while not suffering severe consequences from its negative aspects. harm.