/kloc-people living in Europe in the 0/7th century believed in one thing-all swans are white. Because all the swans that could be seen at that time were really white, which was the true truth according to empiricism.

It was not until 1697 that the explorer discovered the black swan in Australia, and the explorer was amazed. Then the deep-rooted beliefs of Europeans collapsed instantly, causing a sensation of "concept change" at that time. This is the "black swan effect".

The basis of our cognitive judgment comes from the world in our own mind, not the real world outside. Most people tend to be self-righteous, and the decision-making mistakes caused by cognitive limitations are the essence of the Black Swan incident.

Black swan exists in all fields, no matter financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control. For example, Titanic sank, 9 1 1 event, snowstorm, earthquake. ...

Why can't we predict the black swan event? Because our understanding of the truth of the world is biased.

Speaking of the story of the black swan, in China in 1930s, some writers' subjectivism was also very bad. On one occasion, Lu Xun was asked to talk about this problem. Lu Xun didn't say much, but told two stories:

First of all, there is a farmer who carries water every day. One day, he suddenly realized: "What does the emperor use to carry water to eat?" Then he said to himself, "You must use a gold pole!" "

Secondly, a peasant woman wanted to eat persimmons, so she thought, "How did the Empress enjoy her happiness? It must be that I ordered it as soon as I woke up, and I quickly took a persimmon to eat! "

This is the limitation of cognition. Farmers usually carry water because of their own experience and experience limitations, thinking that the emperor should also carry water. Two limitations of human nature:

1, time limit: summer insects are far from ice;

2. Space limitation: the well frog can't talk about the sea;

Zhuangzi said, "Young people don't know how old they are", and those who live short don't know how long they live. This is a time limit. Living space is the environment. It is like a cage, which gives birth to us, nurtures us and fetters us, especially our thoughts.

I am thinking that time and space are very dazzling things. Many times, we only see some people in a time, a space, or a time and space. We don't know their past, and they don't know ours, so everyone has limitations and often doesn't know it. The so-called authorities are fascinated.

In other words, the so-called "correctness" is correct in a certain time and space, not absolutely correct. From the point of view of the Book of Changes, time and space are constantly changing. Therefore, no viewpoint is absolutely correct, only relatively correct. The key is to accommodate all kinds of different views, not to be centralized!

Zhuangzi wrote in "On Earth": "It is extremely tolerant of things without cutting people." In other words, tolerance is the highest wisdom.

I hate it when someone tries to deny each other's values and forcibly input their own values when they disagree. They also call others brain-damaged. This behavior is both stupid and rude. One of the signs that people become mature and powerful is that they can tolerate and accept different opinions and ideas more and more-not agree or understand, but feel that such different opinions are completely wrong and accept the fact that such ideas exist in the world. This is the so-called big country mentality. There are hundreds of rivers, and there is a lot of space.

On the internet, many people pretend to be free, but attack others at will. Hu Shi said: "We can't judge whether this matter is right or wrong by our own truth. As liberals, we must tolerate different opinions before we can talk about freedom. "

True freedom, without inner confrontation and bad temper. He always has a way to keep his mind and emotions calm. Beautiful love from Chen Guo.

Recently, I am chasing the TV series "The Longest Day in Chang 'an". Up to now, the biggest feeling is that no matter how smart a person is, he still can't escape the limitations brought by age and times. Few people can live upright without God's perspective.

The essence of history is a combination of all kinds of broken things, which cannot be said, but people can also try to refine, analyze and summarize. No history book is completely objective, it is always based on a certain position and always has limitations. For example, a hero committed suicide because of historical limitations, and a revolutionary committed suicide because of historical limitations. Almost everything in ........................ is more or less related to limitations. Although everyone has their own limitations, the difference is that some people try to expand their circle and broaden their horizons. Some people will never step out of this circle, and life will get narrower and narrower. Once something happens that is inconsistent with their limitations, they shout, fight and kill, and they are extremely angry. I have never seen anyone I know who can break through the limitations.