The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, referred to as Yugoslavia. It only existed for 11 years. What was the real reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia? Below is the real reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia that I prepared for you. I hope you like it!
The real reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia
6 On March 17, he set off for a state visit to Serbia, Poland, and Uzbekistan.
Professor Zhang Weiwei, dean of the China Institute at Fudan University and researcher at the Chunqiu Institute of Development Strategy, once observed the local area before and after the disintegration of Yugoslavia. He later lamented in the article that the former Yugoslavia is like a Pandora's box. Once opened, there will be no end to the problems. Kosovars are worried about "Greater Serbia", Macedonia is worried about "Greater Albania", and in Greece next door, people are worried about "Greater Macedonia". The fate of a country is like this. You cannot make mistakes in a few key steps.
For China to rise smoothly and wonderfully, it must learn from the strengths and lessons of others. Speaking from my own experience, my on-the-ground observations before and after the disintegration of Yugoslavia were unforgettable experiences worth sharing with readers.
In July 1986, I visited Yugoslavia as an English translator. Our special plane took off early in the morning from Bucharest, the capital of Romania, and arrived in the sky over Belgrade in less than an hour. Looking down from the plane, to be honest, we were surprised. Below were spacious highways and countless fast-moving cars. There are also small villas with orange-red roofs dotted among the green mountains and green fields. From Romania, which is economically distressed, to Yugoslavia, which is prosperous and wealthy, the contrast is too great.
Xie Li, China’s ambassador to Yugoslavia at the time, was a senior diplomat. He gave us a very concise introduction to the situation in Yugoslavia. He said, “One, two, three, four, five, six can be used. , Seven to summarize Yugoslavia: one country, two scripts (Russian alphabet and Latin alphabet), three languages ??(Serbo-Croatian, Macedonian, Slovenian), four religions (Orthodox, Catholic, Jesuit, Islamic religion), five nationalities (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro), six independent countries (Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia), seven neighboring countries (Albania, Greece, Romania) , Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria, Italy).
At that time, the per capita housing area in Yugoslavia had reached 18 square meters, and on average there was one car for every eight people. The market seemed prosperous. But behind the prosperity there are already hidden crises, such as inflation and excessive decentralization of political power. At that time, the central government of Yugoslavia had almost only diplomatic and defense powers left. After Tito's death on May 4, 1980, the Yugoslav federal government implemented the practice of collective rotation of heads of state. As a result, it was unable to form a strong leadership core, and the six communist republics operated independently.
Tito's economic policies also made serious mistakes during his lifetime. He always wanted to treat all countries and countries equally, but failed to act in accordance with economic laws and failed to form a unified and efficient domestic market. A Serbian scholar later told me that Tito's approach was that if Serbia wanted to build a steel plant, then several other communist countries would also build one. As a result, a large number of "political factories with low economic efficiency" were built in Yugoslavia. ".
In retrospect, Deng Xiaoping repeatedly emphasized that China should pursue two openings, one is internal opening, the other is external opening, and two markets, one is the domestic market and the other is the international market. This is extremely important. Visionary. The so-called internal opening and domestic market is to build a huge, unified, and efficient domestic market. With this market as the backing and docking with the international market, China will have its own strength and capital, and have a strong and unified national economy. foundation and institutional structure. Although there are still varying degrees of local protectionism in China, through more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China is forming the world's largest unified market, which is of great significance to China's long-term stability and stability. It will also help China eventually surpass the United States and become the world's largest unified market. economy will be of decisive significance.
In retrospect, Yugoslavia in 1986 was already very open. The lobby on the first floor of the Federal Building (hit by a NATO missile in 1999), where foreign leaders hold talks, is decorated like a modern art museum, displaying some large modernist paintings and abstract sculptures to great effect. Displaying abstract artworks in a huge space gives people an unconstrained visual shock, but the entire atmosphere is still integrated and majestic. When Yugoslav Mikulic held a welcome banquet, he usually did not choose it in a state guesthouse or a five-star hotel, but in a bar street where local artists, poets and petty bourgeoisie liked to gather. It was roughly equivalent to Xintiandi in Shanghai and Shichahai in Beijing. At that time, There is no such fashionable place in China yet.
Our welcome banquet was held in a bar and restaurant called "Three Straw Hats". Neither party made a formal speech. Everyone gathered around several long wooden tables and drank wine produced by Yugoslavia. We ate authentic Belgrade-style steak, and a middle-aged singer with a mustache and his three-piece band played and sang to entertain us.
The singer sang many patriotic songs, one of which was called "Ode to Yugoslavia." An official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Yugoslavia who was sitting next to me told me that in the days after Tito's death in 1980, no matter where you went, people sang This song was played constantly on radio stations, "We must unite, this was Tito's promise during his lifetime."
The mustachioed singer also played and sang a song he wrote for us. The song is called "Welcome Visitors from Away", and the lyrics roughly mean: "The heart of Belgrade is beating because we welcome friendly envoys from a great country far away. In this turbulent world, people are divided into good people and bad people, but come All good people come here. Welcome, here are the best wishes of the people of Yugoslavia. A poet said that where friendship and love bloom, there is a place where poverty and loneliness die. The young man who speaks Chinese very well translated the lyrics just right, like a beautiful prose, which pushed the atmosphere of our dinner to a climax. Everyone stood up and raised their glasses to wish "the everlasting friendship between China and South Africa." To be honest, our generation has some kind of Yugoslav plot. We have all seen "Walter Defends Sarajevo", we all know that the Yugoslav guerrillas fought bravely and skillfully against the German invaders, and we all know that Chairman Mao Zedong said, "Tito is like iron." Just as hard." Similarly, most people in Yugoslavia also know about the Long March of the Chinese Red Army and about Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
Stills from "Walter Defends Sarajevo"
Later we set off to visit Slovenia, the richest province in Yugoslavia, close to Austria, and stayed at the official residence where Tito lived during his lifetime.
I asked the hotel receptionist where in Yugoslavia are you from? She gave me a bright smile and said, "I am Yugoslavia." I suddenly realized that this was the result of long-term education in Yugoslavia. Everyone only said that they were Yugoslavs. Don't say which country he is from. This is different from China. In China, you can say that you are from Hunan or Jiangxi, because it is self-evident that everyone is Chinese, but the concept of "Yugoslavs" needs to be cultivated.
Later anti-war proved that South Korea’s long-term political education was no match for the nationalist sentiment incited by populists. Serbian Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Vokovich, once said to me: "Looking back now, when Tito was alive, everyone's identification with Yugoslavia was still very strong. If Tito could live a few more years, maybe we could complete the negotiations with the European Union. Negotiations on the independence of Yugoslavia will allow the entire Yugoslavia to join the EU as a whole, so that subsequent national disintegration and war can probably be avoided. Of course, everything is irreversible now. ”
The disintegration of Yugoslavia was first caused by. The economic crisis triggered persistent inflation, reaching a peak of 2,400%, people's living standards dropped sharply, and various strikes continued. Since 1988, the Mikulic government has been in a state of turmoil.
The person who succeeded Mikulic was Markovich, who had a better grasp of Yugoslavia’s problems. He once said that Yugoslavia’s past policies made two mistakes: First, the market and capitalism In other words, more thorough market reforms have not been carried out. Second, the entire Yugoslav economy has become a "contract" economy, which is not a "contract" formed based on the laws of market economy, but an "autonomy agreement" reached through administrative means based on some political principles. There are various agreements between workers and management, between governments and countries, between central and local governments, and between enterprises. Once there is a problem in one link, it will affect a large area or even the economic operation of the entire country. This connection is not organic market-based, but man-made and administrative, and its centrifugal force is even greater than the centripetal force.
President of the former Yugoslavia: Iron Drag
Under the impact of the "democratization" wave promoted by the West, the entire intellectual community of Yugoslavia completely accepted the Western political discourse, and the core of this discourse It was a naive dream: if only Western political systems were adopted, all the problems facing Yugoslavia would be solved. A radical revolutionary atmosphere quickly formed. The local party headquarters of the Yugoslav Republic of China also successively accepted Western political discourse and launched one more radical political reform plan.
The Slovenian Communist Party first proposed "ending the one-party system and implementing a multi-party system" in March 1989. After that, the entire political situation became out of control, with the federal government and the South African government *The central organization of the alliance has been completely eliminated. In fact, this is not a question of the superiority of a one-party system or a multi-party system, but that under the specific national conditions of Yugoslavia, promoting the political changes hoped for by the West will definitely lead to the disintegration of the country and war. However, the general public and even most intellectuals No one saw this at the time.
In July 1990, Yugoslavia passed the Political Association Law and officially implemented a multi-party system. More than 200 political parties suddenly appeared in Yugoslavia, which has a population slightly larger than that of Shanghai, and won the most votes. All are political parties that hold high the banner of populism. Their slogans are "Slovenia belongs to Slovenes," "Croatia belongs to Croats," and "Kosovo belongs to Kosovars." The more intense and extreme the slogans, the more votes they will win.
In 1991, starting with Slovenia, one after another Yugoslavia and Yugoslavia declared independence and seceded from the federation, and the "Civil War" in Yugoslavia immediately broke out.
The first to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia was Germany. Although most members of the European Community still have doubts, their doubts are not because they are in favor of maintaining the unity of Yugoslavia, but because judging from relevant EU legal documents, Croatia, which has declared independence, is not yet capable of protecting local minorities on human rights issues. The rights of the nation (Serbs) caused a refugee wave of more than 200,000 Serbs to migrate to Serbia. However, Germany lobbied the members of the European Community to recognize the independence of these two countries on the grounds that the EU should be unified externally.
Former Federal Republic of Germany Brandt knelt on his knees in front of the Memorial to the Victims of Polish Jews
I later asked a senior Serbian diplomat how to explain Germany’s keenness to recognize Slovenia and Croatian independence. He believes that Germany, which has just achieved reunification, needs to rebuild its sphere of influence. Slovenia is its close neighbor, while Croatia was a puppet state of Germany during World War II. Regardless of whether this view is tenable, European powers can do it for their own interests. There is no doubt about sacrificing principles and interests of other countries.
I generally have a favorable impression of Germany because Germany made serious introspections on World War II, which is in sharp contrast to Japan's attitude. But on the issue of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, I think Germany's behavior is extremely irresponsible. Even if the country of Yugoslavia should be disintegrated, it should not be done in such a way as to open Pandora's box. But neither Germany nor the West as a whole cares about the interests of others. After Slovenia and Croatia gained independence with the support of Germany and the West, the wars in Yugoslavia were like dominoes, happening one after another, eventually leading to the death of more than 200,000 people, countless people being maimed, and millions of people displaced. , setting the biggest human tragedy in Europe after World War II.
In fact, they all have strong ideological complexes deep in their hearts: for many of them, today's China is an East Germany magnified dozens of times. They don’t understand, and they don’t want to understand, how many turmoils the Chinese have experienced in their history, and how many families were destroyed and people were killed in each turmoil. They don’t understand why Chinese people today cherish their country’s stability and development so much. They are unwilling to believe that this is the best time for China since 1949, and they are even less willing to accept the Chinese people’s firm will and determination to follow their own path.
Of course, China is not the Soviet Union, nor is it Yugoslavia. Their wish is destined to fail. Deng Xiaoping said eloquently as early as 1982: "No foreign country should expect China to be their vassal. Don't expect China to be their vassal." I hope China will swallow the bitter consequences that harm our country’s interests.”
Twenty years later, I embarked on a journey to revisit the old place. In July 2006, I took a long-distance bus from Zagreb, the capital of Croatia, to Belgrade, which had once made my heart beat. During the 20 years of China's rapid development, Serbia has experienced one disaster after another, especially the Kosovo crisis, which triggered intensive bombing by NATO. The Belgrade long-distance bus station I arrived at looked like a county-level bus station in China 20 years ago. It was noisy and dusty. The ticket sales area was crowded with people. Six or seven people came over and asked me to take their taxi, and asked for a change. in foreign currency. But after leaving the station, Belgrade still looks like a big city, with wide streets, beautiful European-style buildings, cafes in every corner of the city, and well-dressed men and women. It’s just that the shop windows and furnishings feel very outdated. , and there are still the ruins left by NATO bombing.
I left my luggage in the hotel, called a taxi and rushed to the "Three Straw Hats" bar and restaurant that was unforgettable to me. It seemed that that place also retained a part of my youth, even though it was just a A unique dinner party.
I met the owner of the restaurant. When he talked about what happened 20 years ago, he said: "I know, I know, that happened when my father was there." So he entered the back room and started from a red door. I took out three thick VIP signature books from the big cabinet, and helped me find the signatures of the then US President Bush Sr. and Tito. Pointing to Tito's handwriting, he sighed: "The old man has eaten here several times. He is the person we miss the most. After the old man died, our country went from bad to worse."
He said: " From the 1970s to the early 1980s, those were our best days." He said with regret: "Tito was a politician. One person and one vote could not elect Tito, but Milosevic was elected. In the end, the country. They all fell into the hands of these politicians."
He also said angrily: "Look, now Kosovo is going to be independent again." I can understand his feelings, just think about these 20 years. Serbs experienced great disasters. But in the end, he smiled and said to me: "People who have experienced war like to say: 'No matter what, I am still alive.' You should feel happy when you are alive."
He raised the phone in his hand. Cup, finish that bitter Serbian beer with me.
I met a Serbian electrical appliance businessman who had just returned from Shanghai in the hotel that day. He said: "Shanghai is changing with each passing day and you publish a new map of Shanghai every six months.
We change our passports here every six months, first it was a Yugoslav passport, then it was a Serbian and Montenegro Republic passport, and now it is probably going to be a Serbian Republic passport, because the Montenegro Republic passport was changed a few days ago Also declared independence. "His sigh really revealed the different fates and vicissitudes of China and Yugoslavia in the past 20 years.
When taking a bus from Belgrade to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the border inspections are very strict. The police in Bosnia and Herzegovina regard Serbs as thieves. There were four Serbs in our car. The police looked at their documents again and again, then asked them to get out of the car and unpack every piece of luggage. It took us an hour and 40 minutes. , that kind of racial hatred has obviously not subsided. The border post is hoisted with the flag of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the flag of the European Union is also displayed, which shows the influence of the European Union. The euro is also used here. The car kept turning along the mountain road, and finally at dusk. , seeing a large urban area under the mountain and countless mosque towers, I knew I had arrived in Sarajevo.
I went to the old town of Sarajevo. The old town was very antique, the streets were bustling, and people seemed to have forgotten the shadow of the war. The shadow of the war still lingers. When Nina, the Bosnian girl who served as my tour guide, talked about the Bosnian war she had experienced, her eyes became red. She pointed to the hilltop opposite and said, "The shells were fired from that place. Come here, in the town below, four members of my uncle's family were killed on the spot."
Sarajevo
The ruins left by the war are still vivid in my mind. Old Many shops in the city sell handicrafts made from cannon shells and bullet casings. I bought three bullet casings with three different Islamic patterns engraved on them. I asked the shopkeeper what these patterns meant. He said: One is for peace, and the other is for peace. One is happiness, and the other is love. I suddenly thought that these are the three wishes that people in the world pray for. But there are always people in the world who want to deprive people of this wish in various names, even at the cost of force.
A scholar in Bosnia and Herzegovina said to me: "Never believe that people are rational. We all got along very well during Tito's period, but later when politicians incited people's national and religious sentiments, they were mobilized , people become irrational animals and start fighting each other. Yesterday we were friends, today we are enemies. "I walked into a painting shop in the old city, and a quarter of the portraits in it were of Tito. I asked the shop owner, an elderly man with wrinkles on his face: "Do you still respect Tito very much?" He said: " Of course, a leader who truly works for the people will always be remembered by the people. ”
The traces of the war can also be seen in Croatia. The war also left a large number of unexploded landmines on this land, which still threatens people’s lives. Croats hate Milo ?evich said, “We have been fighting for six years, and there are still no exact figures on the number of casualties. Our living standards have not yet returned to the level of the Yugoslav period. "My friend K from Croatia told me. The local newspaper said that 138 large cemeteries have been discovered, and they are all buried in Croats who were killed by the Serbs during the war, but I cannot verify it. We passed by the large cemetery in Zagreb There were countless people praying in the church, and the church was overcrowded. Mr. K said to me: "After the war, everyone has shadows in their hearts. Many people are depressed. Everyone wants to find more comfort from religion, but although religious people are becoming more and more More and more, our suicide rate is still the highest in the world.
"In the evening, I had dinner with Mr. K and his wife. They said that in all the communist countries of the former Yugoslavia, including the first independent Slovenia, the most prestigious politician was still Tito. I Question: "You miss Tito, what do you miss him mainly for?" Mr. K said: "You miss the peace and laziness of that time, and you miss the free medical care, free education, and paid vacations of that time. In Tito's time, you could do anything but march in the streets and get into trouble.
His wife added: "There is also Tito's personal charm. The current leader is unparalleled. He is a Communist leader with great self-esteem and personality. He smokes cigars and lives in the house." Villa, wearing a Swiss watch. Mr. K smiled slyly: "There are also stories about him and those beautiful actresses." "When we broke up, Mr. K gave me his latest business card, and I noticed that the email address on it used a Yugoslav domain name.
In Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, I talked with the Kosovo TV station General Manager A chatted with Mr. A, who studied at university in Belgrade. “My best friends at the time were all Serbian,” he said to me. “But later Milosevic launched Greater Serbianism, and my wife and I were Albanians, we are unemployed. This kind of persecution even involves children. Serb children and Albanian children fight every day, and in the end they have to be separated and go to different schools, which is equivalent to racial segregation. "He also told me that he and his wife once went to Macedonia for business. When they returned to Kosovo, the Serb police guarding the border prohibited them from entering. They had to camp at the border and waited for three days and three nights. When traveling by car in Kosovo, from time to time You will see cemeteries one after another, and there are graves all over the mountains and plains in Pristina. “Every family has lost relatives in this war, so it is no longer possible to restore harmony between Serbs and Albanians. . "He said to me with a sigh.
We walked to the city center together and saw Muslim mosques, Orthodox and Catholic churches. Mr. A said, you see, different religions can coexist peacefully. Not far away there is a monument consisting of three tall pillars. He told me: "This was erected to commemorate Tito's last visit to Kosovo before his death. It symbolized the unity of Albanians, Serbs and other ethnic groups. At that time, Kosovo was a model province in Yugoslavia for different ethnic groups and different religions to live in harmony." I I know a lot of Serbs and a lot of Albanians. These two ethnic groups have the same characteristics. They treat people with enthusiasm and it is easy to make friends with them. If there is a good government that can uphold justice, the two ethnic groups can live in harmony. However, under the instigation of populist politicians, a model province of ethnic harmony quickly turned into a place of ethnic hatred and fighting.
Discussing this issue with Serbs, they all emphasized that the intervention of external forces led to the crisis. A Serbian scholar told me: "The so-called 'Liberation Army' in Kosovo at that time killed many Serbs. Before 1998, the United States itself listed this organization as a terrorist organization. However, in order to dismember Yugoslavia, the United States changed its policy. Provide a lot of material support and personnel training to this organization. How much justice is there in international politics? Everything is naked interest." When he said this, his tone was very sure. Now Kosovo has officially declared independence with the support of some major Western countries, but Serbia, Russia and most countries in the world have not yet recognized it. This also means that the crisis caused by the division of Yugoslavia is far from over.
In Skopje, the capital of Macedonia, I met a writer in his 60s. He said: "At that time, the entire Eastern Europe envied us Yugoslavia. They had a rigid planned economy, but here we have US dollars. It can be exchanged at will, and the house can be bought and sold freely. "This writer also met Tito. "Tito was nearly 80 years old at the time, but his face was red and his body looked very strong. He liked jazz and a wealthy life, but he also found ways to make it better. His people became wealthy."
Our conversation turned to Macedonian politics. He said that Tito had political integrity, but what today's politicians lack most is political integrity. “We like to joke about politicians here,” he said. “Our latest joke is that our president goes to Brussels and asks to join the EU. The EU says to him, you have to create a 100% democratic system. We say, no problem, we have already established it. The democratic system has reached more than 110%.” He said that the biggest problem facing Macedonia today is the relationship between Macedonians and Albanians. Albanians now account for one-third of the population. “Maybe one day they will merge with Kosovo.” If this happens, our country will disintegrate."
The former Yugoslavia is like a Pandora's box. Once opened, there will be no end to the problems. Kosovars are worried about "Greater Serbia", Macedonia is worried about "Greater Albania", and in Greece next door, people are worried about "Greater Macedonia".
The fate of a country is like this. You cannot make mistakes in a few key steps. There are too many situations where one mistake leads to eternal hatred, and Yugoslavia is a typical example. Many people in the West hope that China will also disintegrate like Yugoslavia. But their wish will not be realized, because maintaining the unity of China is the firm will of the 1.3 billion Chinese people. However, in the process of China's rise, we still need to think deeply about the lessons learned from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, and draw useful lessons from them, so as to make our rise smoother and more exciting.