With the penetration of new energy vehicles into low-priced vehicles, the market share of fuel vehicles is also being eroded. In terms of sales volume, in 2022, compared with 202 1, the sales volume of fuel passenger cars directly decreased by 2.302 million, and the new energy increased by 2.687 million. During this year1-February, the cumulative sales volume of new cars nationwide was 2.657 million, down 2 1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of fuel vehicles in June 5438+0-February was1910.2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%; The sales volume of new energy was 776,5438+0,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. It can be seen that in the downward environment of the automobile market, the fuel vehicle market is shrinking, but the new energy vehicles have not been affected. Therefore, the traditional automobile manufacturers represented by Dongfeng joint venture brand are facing great pressure. It is to help local automobile enterprises tide over the difficulties, so Hubei began to engage in automobile promotion activities.
Objectively speaking, the car subsidy in Hubei is a good thing for consumers, but the subsidy policy that restricts regions and brands has a strong local protection color. Therefore, other automobile provinces will not sit idly by. For example, Jilin provided a subsidy to an automobile company, and Guangdong provided an additional subsidy policy to GAC cars. The final result is the evolution from local protection to collective price reduction of fuel vehicles.
For example, the first-line brands dropped by 20,000, the second-line brands dropped by 40,000, and the third-line brands dropped more. This step-by-step price reduction has completely disrupted the pricing system of fuel vehicles in the past years. In this way, consumers' awareness of the price of fuel vehicles will stay in the price reduction period for a long time, and the traditional joint venture fuel vehicles are worthless in the eyes of consumers. In the future, if car companies want to raise prices, the market may not pay the bill.
Under the pressure of sales volume, these models with reduced prices will have to exchange quantity for quantity in the future. In order to ensure profits, car companies can only cut corners and reduce costs, which will not only lead to the deterioration of products bought by consumers, but also collapse the good image established by brands over the years, and even some models will simply stop production and not be updated. In other words, although the collective price reduction is temporary, it actually accelerates the decline of fuel vehicles.
At the same time, the continuous price reduction of new cars also makes consumers think that the price of new cars will continue to fall. With the increase of market price reduction expectations, more and more people who are going to buy cars will postpone their car purchase plans, and new car sales are likely to fall to the bottom again after experiencing the short-term prosperity brought by subsidies.
Therefore, enterprises that originally intended to digest their inventory and reverse their financial situation by subsidies may face a more severe market situation just as they catch their breath. Even if the car companies with improved financial conditions are interested in stabilizing prices, the car companies with poor financial conditions cannot cooperate. Just like the car subsidy of Dongfeng Department in Hubei Province, car companies from other provinces originally wanted to bite their teeth and insist. As a result, Dongfeng couldn't hold on for a while.
You know, in the eyes of consumers, as long as the price is cheap, the brand awareness is poor, and there are many product defects, it is not a problem. After all, there is a famous saying now: 200,000 C6 is old-fashioned,1.20,000 C6 is mature and steady. Therefore, under the premise that the prices of second-and third-line brands are quite different from those of first-line brands, the loyalty and appeal of first-line brands will become worthless. Only reducing the price is the truth.
On the other hand, the price of fuel vehicles has plummeted, which will soon put pressure on new energy vehicles. According to the past industry forecast, the cost of pure motor vehicles can be the same as that of fuel vehicles in 2030. However, this year's large price reduction of fuel vehicles released a large part of profits, which suddenly opened the price gap with new energy vehicles, thus weakening the attractiveness of new energy vehicles. Faced with the same size and configuration, if the price of fuel vehicles is much cheaper than that of new energy vehicles, users with small budgets will obviously tend to buy cheaper fuel vehicles. Therefore, the price reduction of fuel vehicles this year is not only for rolling itself, but also for rolling new energy vehicles.
The collapse of new car prices will naturally affect the used car market. After all, the second-hand hedge rate of a car has always been closely linked to the transaction price of a new car. Recently, the price of new fuel vehicles has plummeted, and second-hand car dealers will definitely lower the price when they collect the cars. After all, no one can guarantee that the price of fuel vehicles will not continue to decline, and second-hand car dealers certainly don't want to smash the cars they have received. This will also directly lead to the serious problem of car depreciation if they want to sell their cars in the future.
As for used cars that have already entered the market, they are naturally not spared. After all, the price of new cars now is cheaper than the second-hand price collected by car dealers. In order not to let the vehicle hit in their hands, car dealers can only bite the bullet and lose money. Take Citroen C6 with the highest price reduction as an example. Last year, in the second-hand market, 1 car-age C6 400THP comfort version sold for1.4000, and now the new car only sells for1.368 million, which is cheaper than the used car.
So some used car dealers immediately put C6? The price of 400THP Comfort Edition is lowered to 65,438+026,800. Of course, some merchants can't bear to cut meat, and they still sell it online at the price of 139800. After this painful lesson, I believe that used car dealers may not dare to touch C6 for some time to come. Even those who dare to accept C6 will greatly reduce their car prices, and C6 will become a very worthless car from now on.
It is worth noting that there are many first-line Japanese brands such as Toyota, Honda and Nissan in this local subsidy list. In the past, Japanese brands gave users the image of preserving value. Even in order to maintain this image, Toyota and Honda even prefer to sell less and not cut prices at all to ensure the stability of new car prices.
For this reason, in the past, the preservation rate of Japanese joint venture cars has been higher than that of domestic cars, coupled with the better reliability performance of early Japanese cars, which has created higher premium ability and brand recognition of joint venture cars in these years. Here we might as well take Honda UR-V as an example. Although the sales volume of this medium-sized SUV is not high, the terminal discount is not large, and the price of the new car is very stable. Therefore, the three-year preservation rate of UR-V is as high as 79.56%, second only to Toyota Highlander.
However, due to the weakness of Japanese car companies in the field of new energy in the past two years, even the hot-selling models of Toyota and Honda have begun to get relatively large discounts at the terminal. This sudden official subsidy further impacted the price of Japanese cars. For example, this year's Honda UR-V in Hubei directly dropped by 68,000 yuan. 1 The original price of the second-hand UR-V 370TURBO two-wheel drive elegant version is as high as 230,800 yuan, and now the new car only sells 2 1. 1.8 million yuan, which is lower than the used car! Therefore, the situation of Japanese cars such as UR-V is very similar to that of Citroen C6 mentioned above, and their used car prices may dive in the future. After losing the golden signboard of value preservation, it will become more and more difficult for Japanese cars to maintain a high premium by fuel vehicles.
In contrast, domestic brands that are rapidly transforming into new energy fields are less affected by this price war. Take BYD as an example. At present, the official discount of plug-in hybrid Song PLUS car is only 6888 yuan, and the discount of pure electric car is only 8888 yuan. Compared with the discount of tens of thousands of joint venture fuel vehicles, the price reduction of domestic brands is simply pitiful. It can also be seen that the dominance of domestic brands in the field of new energy has indeed been effectively reflected in this wave of price cuts.
The collective price reduction of fuel vehicles this year is not only forced to save themselves, but also a Jedi counterattack against new energy sources. But in any case, the price reduction of fuel vehicles is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst. Short-term low prices can indeed increase sales, but the high-priced aura of joint-venture fuel vehicles in consumers' minds is gone forever. Therefore, this big price reduction activity is essentially accelerating the demise of fuel vehicles in the China market, and major car companies have no choice but to transform to new energy sources as soon as possible. The year 2023 is the turning point of China automobile market. Fuel vehicles gradually lost their historical position, and domestic new energy sources rose rapidly. These changes are likely to affect the development of China automobile market in the next few decades. Let's wait and see!
This article comes from the "Radish Report" written by Che Yi, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.