Cao Renchao talks about galloping through the financial market for 3 years
Pang: Many readers and I have many clients who have been reading your column by Cao Sheng. You have made many good suggestions in the past and always made money. Why is personal finance so important? The younger generation has no study at school. When should we start making personal financial plans? What should be the scope of personal finance?
Cao: In modern business society, if you want to live happily, I believe it is best to have a certain amount of money. For example, you want to ask your girlfriend to have a good candlelight dinner; Or you suddenly decide to travel overseas during the summer vacation; When children grow up, they want to study abroad; Even when it comes to marriage, you want to make it splendid; If you have some money, I believe it will at least make your life more enjoyable. Pang: But how to get the first money? What about the so-called first bucket of gold?
Cao: Personally, I often have a wish that it is better to have a father's shadow. If the previous generation worked hard and left us a legacy, it would be very happy. However, I believe that not everyone has a father's shadow, so it is important to build a fortune by yourself.
pang: hmm.
Cao: I remember when I left middle school, I saw on TV that a bank bought an advertisement asking people to save money, saying that savings can make people rich, and there are pavilions and pavilions for saving, and every little makes a mickle, and in the future, everyone will be rich. At that time, I thought it was a big joke, because since the beginning of the Second World War, the followers of Keynes have dominated the decision-making power of all free economic countries in the world. They often use deficit budgets to stimulate economic growth, which has become the established policy of the central bank. In the long run, the deposit interest rate must be lower than inflation. Take 1 yuan as an example, the bank will give you 5% interest, and you will get back 15 yuan after one year. However, the inflation rate in Hong Kong is 8%, so your real purchasing power is only 96.6 yuan.
if you want to save money all your life, you are simply taking part in a battle that you will never win; Getting rich by saving is just a banker's tone, which is the biggest reason for the slow rise of personal finance.
pang: if personal financial management is based on what you said, it is hoped that investment will be higher than inflation, of course, there are two ways to do it. Some people may work hard, work hard to start a business, and even take the initiative to find investment opportunities with funds; But some people don't work so hard and invest only when they have extra money. What is the difference between the two methods?
Cao: As the saying goes, you can be a gentleman only if you eat bitterness. Many people want to be bosses.
pang: yes!
Cao: Frankly speaking, there are only over 5 listed companies, and the chances of success are not so high. Therefore, before you become a boss, you'd better ask yourself whether you are rich or not. As far as ordinary people are concerned, I advocate being a "middleman", which means being a middle class and getting a job. Saving 1 thousand yuan should be able to achieve the goal in three years, and the rest is the welfare problem; If you want to appreciate 1, yuan by 2% every year, it will be 62, in ten years, 3.8 million in twenty years and 23 million in thirty years.
Pang: Very impressive!
Cao: In other words, I believe that many friends, most of whom can become multimillionaires in their own lifetimes, should be clear, however, with the purchasing power of 23 million yuan in 3 years, as for when to start investment and financial management, I think the sooner the better, since they are already multimillionaires at the age of 2 and 5; On the contrary, if you start at the age of 5, you won't be a multimillionaire until you are 8. Pang: I've tried it myself. When I earn some money at the age of 2, I buy a beautiful car or spend all my money. How can I save to get the first money? For young people, sometimes it is really difficult to do it. How can young people save enough investment capital when they are worried, don't spend money indiscriminately, and don't take their girlfriends to the theatre or go shopping?
Cao: It's hard to be a "master", but it's easy if you want to be a "servant". I turn on the TV myself, and sometimes I feel a little bored when I see many old people living on public assistance. I believe most elderly people used to work hard. Why are they so miserable now? The biggest reason is that they don't know how to manage their personal finances. As a result, the money they have worked so hard to save has completely lost their purchasing power and become old and helpless under the erosion of inflation. It is really pitiful. I personally think that the media has the responsibility to tell readers or listeners that if you start to suffer for those three years earlier, you will be very happy in this life; On the contrary, if you spend money recklessly in the beginning, then I'm worried that by the time you are 6 or 7 years old, you may become a "human servant".
pang: what's the difference between Cao sheng and 197s and 198s and 199s? Actually, what's your past experience?
Cao: In the 197s, it can be said that we experienced an era of high inflation. The most important point, I believe, is that the US dollar was divorced from gold in 1971? Therefore, all physical objects have become investment targets, such as gold, antiques, famous paintings, properties and stocks. It can be said that the whole policy is in terms of preserving value.
As Hong Kong people, the best investment is of course gold. In 197, gold was more than 2 yuan an ounce, and by 198 it had risen to 4,8 yuan, an increase of nearly 2 times. It can be said that no other investment has such a big increase except oil. However, in the 198s, the monetary policy of the United States changed and federal reserve system used high interest rates to suppress inflation, so the era of high inflation came to an end. On the other hand, interest rates have also dropped step by step from the peak period. In the case of downward interest rates, of course, it is best to buy houses and stocks. I remember that in 1984 or 1985, when I asked people to buy a flat, the price was over 6 yuan a foot, but by the first quarter of 1994, the price per foot had reached over 6, yuan.
pang: tenfold increase!
Cao: right. The Hang Seng Index was 8 points at that time, and it reached 22, points in 1994, an increase of 15 times. Although it is not as good as the increase of gold price in the 197s, it is believed to be another opportunity to get rich. The problem is that in the 199s, Hong Kong's economy has also entered a mature stage, and those investments that have increased by more than 1 times are hard to exist. It is like taking a cable car, going to the top of the mountain, and then circling and looking down at the Taiping Mountain, the scenery is infinite, but it is quite difficult for you to think of by going up one flight of stairs! Pang: This metaphor is really appropriate! If I spend all my time in circles at the top of the mountain and do personal finance, inflation is still low, about 7%. How should we invest now? Should we invest in China or look at the world?
Cao: It can be said that Hong Kong's high-speed growth period has passed. I believe that when it finally enters a period of steady growth, there will certainly be opportunities in the future, but it is not easy to grasp. Based on Hong Kong's development experience, I believe that the Asia-Pacific region has blossomed everywhere. If we look at South Korea, Taiwan Province, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia with the experience gained from Hong Kong, they are repeating what happened in Hong Kong in the past one or two decades. We have gone to these places to invest as experienced people.
Pang: Today, many Hong Kong people have visited Xingmatai, and they often see these places. For example, when we went to Taiwan Province in the past, the development there was different from today, and so were other ASEAN markets. I want to ask.
Cao: I believe in the saying that "young people don't work hard, but old people are sad", so I strongly encourage young people to scrimp and save for three or several years and start making financial plans as soon as they leave school. Because when people reach the prime of life, they usually have a considerable burden, such as getting married, having children, or paying for a flat. \ \
Pang: So it's hard to save?
Cao: saving is very hard. As for the elderly, I am afraid that time will be bad for them. Therefore, I strongly encourage young people to make their own personal financial plans from the beginning, so that you can enjoy the golden age in middle age and old age. When you are old, you can pass on your 2 or 3 years of experience to the next generation to help them establish correct financial management methods, and the life of a family, big or small, will be very happy. Pang: That is to say, we should be bitter before sweet, eat less and suffer less first, and then the fruit should be good!
Cao: right.
pang: what's the difference between wage earners and entrepreneurs? Do different genders have any influence and difference on personal finance?
Cao: wage earners and entrepreneurs are basically two kinds of people. The average entrepreneur, except for your father's shadow, usually doesn't have enough funds when he starts his business. If he is asked to take some more money for other investments at that moment, it will be quite hard. Therefore, my only advice is that I hope he will work hard. As the saying goes, "If you work hard, the stone will open the door." I believe that starting a business can be successful.
As for men and women, Hong Kong has basically reached the stage of equality between men and women, so there is not much difference. However, in terms of personality, men and women are always different, so I advocate that it is best to have a husband and wife file, so as not to worry about money in the future, and it is best to use a limited company, because it is not expensive to organize a limited company in Hong Kong; In this way, the man's character is enterprising, and the woman's character is steady and the combination is the most perfect.
pang: yes. This will have a balancing effect.
Cao: yes.
pang: if you have property, that is, how should people who already have a sum of money manage their finances?
Cao: The biggest difference between different people in this world is whether you have money or not. Suppose you have more than 1 million, it can be said that the role of money is getting smaller and smaller. For example, the house you live in may be bigger, or you can take a Benz and I will drive a Japanese car. You have a yacht, but I don't. As for having more than 1 million yuan, my feeling is just a number game. It can be said that you can already buy what money can buy; As for things that money can't buy, you can't buy them even if you are richer.
My idea is that, for ordinary people, when your wealth has broken the 1 million mark, I think the goal of life should be transferred from money to other places, such as your own health, whether your family life is happy, whether you care enough for your children, whether you help your friends, etc., so as to avoid working hard all your life, except money, which is blank. Pang: Therefore, apart from the good arrangement of money, personal financial management should actually have a balanced life, so that life is happy.
Cao: right.
pang: but, how can you earn the first bucket of gold quickly? In fact, which industry is better? Or, there are more than a dozen percentage points of growth every year, so I might as well go to China to do things? Or work in some emerging markets, so that we can easily save money?
Cao: In the past decade or two, I have often received letters from readers asking the same question. Usually, my reply is: "I plant flowers with my heart, but I don't send them;" Unintentionally inserted willows into the shade. " I believe that twenty-five years ago, Mr. Alan Tam didn't know that singing could have developed.
pang: there is a red pavilion.
Cao: I'm sure Jackie Chan didn't even know it. It turns out that you can get rich with kung fu. Today, Mr. Zhang Depei's achievements have clearly told us that tennis can be developed. So I think, don't force yourself to do something you don't like. In this world, man proposes and god disposes; As for your efforts to concentrate on the career you are interested in, I think your luck will come sooner or later. If you only want to be developed and win the lottery for a while, you will earn less money, but I believe it is not a long-term solution after all.
pang: so it's best to work hard on your own, find your own interests, and play along the way, so you will have a chance to get ahead sooner or later. It's called being a champion in your profession. After 1997, China has recovered Hong Kong's sovereignty. Has our personal finance strategy changed? Will it be more productive to look at China? Because China's economic growth is 1% every year, with a high speed. What's your opinion?
Cao: I believe that after Hong Kong's return to China, the era of British rule ended in Hong Kong, and what everyone wants to see is the beginning of the era of Hong Kong rule. In the past, due to political factors, British capital took a lot of advantages in Hong Kong's economy and investment, and this advantage will definitely be lost in the future. However, we hope to see Hong Kong build a fair competition society, which is what Mr. Xu Jiatun said in the article he wrote with us: "A toast from Bai Jin, a toast from the able". I don't want to see Chinese-funded enterprises take the place of British capital, leaving a group of old people and bringing in a group of new rich people.
If the system of fair competition is maintained in Hong Kong in 1997, I believe that the future of Hong Kong is still bright. If today's good civil service system is affected, the spirit of the rule of law that we firmly believe in is shaken, and the rich and powerful people collude with each other step by step, which will make the society full of unfairness, then I am worried that the future of Hong Kong will be pessimistic after 1997. So far, I don't know exactly which direction Hong Kong will take, so I believe it will be a year or two before we can discuss the financial strategy with you in depth. Pang: Should we stay put for the time being?
Cao: I believe that the Asia-Pacific region has provided many good opportunities. Therefore, you might as well use one or two years to build your own understanding of the economic development of the entire Asia-Pacific region, which will certainly help you in the future.
pang: is there any winning investment method for personal finance? What can I do to make myself at least invincible?
Cao: I won't be able to win! I have an invincible position, in fact, it is very simple, make good use of it to stop erosion. If the price of any investment falls below 1% or 15%, you will stop the erosion. I like to use the 18-day average very much. After investing in any stock, if the stock price falls below the 18-day average, I usually sell it back.
pang: sell it back?
Cao: right.
pang: Mr. Cao, what advice do you have for investing?
Cao: I remember Mr. Hu Hanhui told me: "Knowing three days will be rich for thousands of years", so there is no prophet in this world. Really successful people have good strategies, not blindly following the brigade; Therefore, it is better to know more about the incident beforehand than to regret it afterwards.
Pang: Everyone must do their homework before investing!
Cao: right.
pang: if you do your homework, a good beginning is half the battle.
Cao: Yes, yes!
pang: this is very important. In terms of personal finance, Cao Sheng said just now that when there is a price loss, it should be stopped. Everyone has heard a saying: "If you earn, you will earn a candy, and if you lose, you will lose the factory." This is worth remembering.
Cao: yes.
pang: when you make money, you sell it if you earn less; But when it erodes, it sticks to it, so the erosion is even worse!
Cao: Yes!
pang: so it is very important to stop corrosion. Cao Sheng, how do you think personal finance is successful? How to calculate failure?
Cao: Some people like to make quick money. I remember that when I helped Radio Television Hong Kong to make a program of "Great Wealth and Great Strategy", I said something to them in the last episode, that is, "planting trees and flowers".
pang: what is the relationship between planting trees and flowers and investment?
Cao: If a person wants to live a happy life, he will be happy to have a tree. This tree can provide a lot of fruits every year, and it will continue to take care of the next generation for you!
pang: there is a shade!
Cao: Yes!
pang: but trees take a long time to cultivate. As the saying goes, "it takes ten years to grow trees, but it takes a hundred years to nurture people"; Duiwen