It is rare to screen stocks directly through changes in the number of shareholders in the market. Today, the author selects some stocks through the change of the number of shareholders, and then analyzes the correlation between them and the stock price.
The more people, the lower the stock price, remember!
As a vulnerable group in the capital market, small and medium-sized investors can't know the shareholder structure and number of listed companies in real time, so the change of the number of shareholders in regular reports has always been regarded as an important investment reference. However, with the main focus on the information of the number of shareholders, using some technical means or loopholes in trading rules, this indicator is becoming more and more unreliable.
How to analyze the change of the number of shareholders
There is a certain correlation between the change of the number of shareholders of listed companies and the trend of their secondary market. The smaller the number of shareholders, the more concentrated the chips, and the trend of stock price often has an independent personality and often moves against the general trend. This is the first choice for short-term experts to abandon the stock market. The more shareholders there are, the more dispersed the chips are, and the stock price tends to be weak and independent, and then follow the trend.
However, due to the information that mainly emphasizes the number of shareholders, the use of some technologies or loopholes in trading rules are making this indicator less credible. There are several common tricks:
1. The number of shareholders analysis data is lagging behind.
At present, the data of the number of shareholders can only be obtained from annual reports, interim reports and quarterly reports. The annual report data is often 3-4 months behind, and the interim report is also 1-2 months behind. A few months is enough time for the main dealer to complete a certain stage of chip operation. Shareholders must pay attention to the changes in the disk during this period, especially the changes in quantity and energy, and judge the effectiveness of the number of shareholders according to these changes. Generally speaking, if the stock price fluctuates little and the amount of energy does not increase significantly, the shareholder data is more effective, because it shows that there is no large-scale inflow and outflow of large funds.
2. The number of shareholders analysis data confusion
The number of shareholders published in the annual report of listed companies is the total number of shareholders, and the number of A-share shareholders, B-share shareholders or H-share shareholders is not indicated separately. In the process of analyzing the number of shareholders, we must pay attention to the influence of these factors, and we cannot infer the correct analysis results with inaccurate statistical data.
3. Deception of the analysis data of the number of shareholders
With the popularity of stock number analysis skills, more and more investors are involved in the application, and the main institutions have begun to use this analysis method to mislead retail investors and cover up their own operation direction. Its specific operation is often to change the number of shares by opening positions suddenly or at the end of the period. In addition, in recent years, the use of two-in-one accounts can also hide the identity of shareholders. Due to the existence of credit guarantee account, the number of shareholders of listed companies will be technically reduced compared with the actual situation, which makes the shares tend to be concentrated, which makes investors who could have traded stocks according to the degree of chip concentration cheated.
4. One-sidedness of the analysis data of the number of shareholders
The increase or decrease in the number of shareholders is not the only factor that causes the stock price to rise or fall. The analysis of the number of shareholders is one aspect of individual stocks, and other aspects are not considered. Such as: market trends, policies, international situation, capital situation, performance, theme and other factors. It is not enough to judge the market only by the number of shareholders. It is also necessary to cooperate with other fundamental analysis and technical analysis to judge individual stocks and general trends from multiple angles and in an all-round way in order to achieve the best results.