Greenspan once created a "zero-inflation" economic miracle during the Clinton era. An American media said during the 1996 U.S. presidential election: "It doesn't matter who is president, as long as Greenspan is the chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Greenspan insisted on anti-inflationism and had the courage to Break through the constraints of economic theory. Traditional theory holds that an unemployment rate above 6% will lead to economic contraction, and an unemployment rate below 5% will trigger inflation. At that time, the unemployment rate in the United States was only 4%, and the economy was still growing steadily. Another argument of traditional theory is that economic overheating will inevitably lead to inflation, but he noticed that large-scale high-tech investment reduced production costs while increasing productivity, so he spared no effort in promoting the new technological revolution. He not only changed financial policies, but also changed the U.S. economy and future, allowing the U.S. economy to achieve a safe "soft landing."
Perhaps realizing that his influence is too great, in order not to have too big an impact on the market, Greenspan has always been very vague in his speech, which is why his famous saying: "If you think You must have misunderstood what I said."
The 2007 subprime housing credit crisis broke out in the summer of 2007 after Greenspan left office. A series of financial institutions such as Bear Stearns, Countrywide, Citi, Merrill Lynch, and UBS have made record writedowns of their assets. Some blame Greenspan. In his memoirs, Greenspan said: President Bush turned the U.S. Treasury from surplus to deficit, which was also the main reason for the subprime housing credit crisis.
September 16, 2007: Greenspan stated in his memoirs that for political reasons it was inconvenient for him to admit what we all know was that the reason for sending troops to Iraq was for oil.
Bernanke is nicknamed "The Ben of Printing Newspapers." This nickname originated from his differences with Greenspan on the issue of inflation. The public bestowed this nickname on Bernanke based on one of his views. : If necessary, liquidity can be increased by printing large amounts of money.
However, Bernanke believes that this nickname misinterprets his original intention. He advocates setting a clear inflation target, that is, maintaining the inflation rate at a specific level within a certain period of time. He believes that doing so can both guide market expectations for inflation and help the Fed increase the credibility of its price stability goals.
In 2002-2003, Bernanke had already gained great popularity in the industry when it came to solving the deflation problem in the United States. He strongly advocated an interest rate cut at that time, which resulted in the U.S. federal funds rate falling to 1( 45-year low).
Regarding the rise in oil prices, Bernanke believes that the supply of oil and other conventional energy sources is tight and there are uncertainties, and the rapid expansion of the global economy has brought about growth in demand. In this situation , energy consumers may feel heavy pressure in the next few years. Although rising energy prices may slow down economic growth in the long term, we believe that the already high oil prices are unlikely to rise significantly further, so the long-term impact of oil prices on the economy should be controllable.
As for the "twin deficits" in the United States, Bernanke believes that one of the main reasons for the expansion of U.S. foreign debt is "substantial changes in the current accounts of developing countries and emerging market countries." This change will The country changes from a borrower to a net lender in international capital markets. Money from poor countries fuels the U.S. current account deficit.
As for the "global savings glut" and the real estate bubble, Bernanke pointed out that after the world economic recovery after the downturn, corporate investment desire is sluggish, and a large number of financial assets are looking for investment targets internationally. The collapse of the stock markets in the United States and even many countries still leaves many fund holders with lingering fears, so residential real estate has become one of the most popular investment areas. When the money enters the United States, it first drives up stock prices, thereby encouraging both consumers and investors. When the stock market is flooded with funds, these funds are transferred to the bond market, causing housing prices to rise and consumption to become more active.
Bernanke also has a theoretical contribution, which is to advocate adding more economic indicators to the macroeconomic model to determine the direction of monetary policy in order to achieve more effective economic stability. Moreover, he also wrote a large number of papers to illustrate some of the methods he designed.
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