Only by making a correct prediction can we adjust the bow of business in time and drive on the right course, which is one of the most important strategic qualities of entrepreneurs.
the so-called "knowing a hero in a small way, expecting the end in advance" is a kind of prejudgment.
this sentence is easy to say, but it is not easy to do, because when it comes to the future, it will inevitably involve another word, which is change.
As for change, it can actually be divided into two perspectives or two parts:
First, change is unknowable, because there are many variables that are accidental, and these variables may make the development trend of things completely different from what we think. So Drucker warned us not to try to predict the future. For the unknowable part, the most important thing is that we should hold an awe-inspiring attitude and fear the unknowable factors of future changes, and never have the idea that we have grasped the future, so the future may give us a big lesson.
Second, changes can be known, and the future can also be "predicted". The best entrepreneurs in China, such as Ma Yun, Ren Zhengfei and Wang Jianlin, have the ability to gain insight into changes and the future to some extent.
let's judge the topic of the future, or how to predict the future.
We believe that there are two paths to strategic prediction:
First, predict the future according to the facts that have happened, because the future has arrived, but it is not yet popular.
The so-called future has a certain time dimension. Ten years is the future, 1 years is the future, and 1 years is the future. In a certain time dimension, the best way to predict the future is to look at the facts that are happening now.
Because the occurrence and development of things are gradual, just like babies, they have to grow up slowly. The so-called prediction of the future is not to think about what may happen in the future, but to return to reality and the present to see those things that can grow. They may still be in the "infant" stage and be discovered by us. Those awesome people are those who have judgment on the present, that is, those who can see the micro-knowledge, see today and know the future. Their ability to distinguish themselves from others is to be able to see what is growth and what is a flash in the pan. This is the ability to test their skills. Because some things are said to be the future, wise people often see something different from the mainstream opinion, and they see the "future" from some scraps.
When it comes to entrepreneurs who can foresee the future, Ma Yun is the most typical representative. Many well-known entrepreneurs admire his ability to "see the future". Liu Chuanzhi praised Ma Yun's ability to predict the future, but Ma Yun's ability to foresee the future is not to see what has not happened yet, but to see what has happened now, but has not grown up and grown into the mainstream. So in essence, it is not to predict the future, but to see that the future has arrived, but it has not yet become popular, and then they base themselves on the present and accumulate, and then they have the future.
Just as we judge the direction of the countryside, we can look at the development of the city. Although the development of the countryside will not be completely similar to that of the city, the popularity of some things is similar, so you want to see the future opportunities in the countryside, and you can see clues from the facts that have happened in the city.
Second, according to the eternal law of "invariability", we should speculate on changes.
The second way to predict the future is to look at the changes according to the invariance, because we can deeply understand some laws and the truth will not disappear with the disappearance of time. It was like this in the past, it is like this now, and it is bound to be like this in the future. If you can grasp these eternal laws, you can predict the future, because you know that with the change of time, the true respect of truth will definitely turn into something suitable for that stage.
It's like saying that when I am in spring, I can predict when summer will come, because I know the evolution law of the cycle of spring, summer, autumn and winter, because in spring, although summer hasn't arrived yet, you know that summer will definitely come at a certain time according to the unchanging law.
Bezos has a saying that "it is better to bet on the same thing than to predict the change". Bezos pays more attention to the unchangeable things, such as the convenience of customers to the shopping experience is unchanged, but at each stage, there are different expressions in each format, and the way to carry the customer experience is constantly changing.
For example, the business law of "altruism first and then self-interest" is unchanged, and outstanding companies in every era can become bigger and stronger only by coinciding with this unchangeable law. Grasp the unchangeable truth, and you will naturally have the super power of "knowing the hero in the micro-time and expecting the ending in advance".
Therefore, the author thinks that instead of thinking about changes all over the sky, it is better to base on the eternal truth, combine the truth with the facts that are happening now, and then make solid efforts, and the future will naturally come. As Drucker said, "The only way to predict the future is to create it". Because the future will not come on its own initiative, the future depends on the continuous cultivation and development of the pioneers, and then inadvertently, they lead the future.