As for the issue of who is responsible for the resumption of fighting after a short ceasefire, both parties in the Ukrainian conflict must have their own explanations, but now it is not who has the loudest voice who can confirm the reason. Putin's accusations against the Ukrainian government did not include any mention of Russian-Ukrainian interests, but he confirmed that the Ukrainian government should authorize the military to carry out shelling and rocket attacks on densely populated areas and cause a large number of civilian casualties, intending to make the Ukrainian government fall into moral blame. The phrase "under the banner of propaganda of longing for peace" is an overall tone-setting counterattack against Ukraine and its behind-the-scenes supporters, the US-European alliance.
Although Russia has repeatedly denied being a supporter of the separatist armed forces in eastern Ukraine, whether it is a practical stakeholder in geopolitics or a leader in the Crimea issue, it is difficult for Russia to make the Ukrainian government look back. . The Ukrainian issue is a recognized manifestation of the strategic contradiction between the United States and Russia, and Ukraine's firm choice of sides also caused Ukraine to eventually lose its strategic room for maneuver and fall completely into the conflict between the United States and Russia in the eye of the storm in Europe. The author does not want to speculate on who on both sides of the conflict in Ukraine broke the ceasefire agreement. But judging from the situation of the Ukrainian government, Putin's accusation cannot be said to be unreasonable.
The first point is that the Ukrainian government will not allow the southeastern region to go further along the trend line of division and repeat the mistakes of the Crimean Peninsula. This mentality stems from the high level of distrust Ukraine has developed towards Russia through the Crimean Peninsula issue. The formation of a confrontational situation between the United States and Russia makes the prospects for a political solution to the southeastern issue bleak. After receiving a new round of strong support from the United States and Europe, Ukraine believes that it has more tough capital. Therefore, solving the current strategic dilemma of the southeastern issue through force may become the only option for the Ukrainian government.
The second is that the Ukrainian government’s financial crisis and energy crisis may trigger a new round of political turmoil in Ukraine. Especially in the current difficult winter, the pressure on the Ukrainian government will increase day by day. Increasing the intensity of the attack on the armed forces in the southeast and re-intensifying the conflicts between the United States, Russia, Europe and Ukraine can divert the attention of the domestic public and reduce attention to the economic crisis in Ukraine, thereby achieving the short-term purpose of alleviating the social pressure on the Ukrainian government and avoiding the collapse of Ukrainian society. Conflicts intensified again.
Third, the confrontation between the United States, Russia and Europe has become fatigued over time, which is not a good phenomenon for Ukraine. Moreover, the terrifying rise of ISIS in the Middle East has also shifted international attention. It should be said that the United States, Russia and Europe all want to take the opportunity to make strategic adjustments, but Ukraine, as the center of the conflict, has no capital to rest and wait. Letting the United States, Russia and Europe return to confrontation will not only win more military and economic assistance for Ukraine, but also allow the current Ukrainian government to gain deeper political capital and public support.
Putin said at a meeting with permanent members of the Federal Security Council: "The ones responsible for this are those who gave such criminal orders. Those who did so must understand that there is no alternative to peaceful negotiations and political means. Any other way to resolve such conflicts. "Putin's above statement does not highlight Russia's military strategic bottom line. However, with military assistance and high-profile support from the United States and Europe, if the separatist armed forces in the southeast are in dire straits, the probability that Russia will stand aside militarily and continue to insist on a negotiated political settlement is almost zero.
Russia has always refused to admit that sanctions from the United States and Europe have caused its current economic difficulties, but the current economic difficulties have indeed weakened the foundation of Russia's tough military strategy on the Ukraine issue. But if Russia believes that there is no way out by making concessions, then launching a limited Russo-Ukrainian war to get rid of the overall strategic disadvantage may be a last resort. In this case, Ukraine, like Georgia before it, will become a grassland where the two bears fight between the United States and Russia, and will eventually become a victim of the strategic conflict between the major powers.
(Military commentator Gao Feng) 2015-1-26