It's difficult to maintain the Ukrainian army's heavy casualties in the east

The fighting in the east of Ukraine in the past few months is more like a slow and fierce traditional war, and the Russian army has resumed its traditional dependence on large-scale use of artillery and rockets.

Ukraine's strategy is to reduce the number of Russian troops as much as possible. The war between the two sides gradually reached a deadlock and a war of attrition.

The Ukrainian army used drones and long-range weapons aided by the United States, which undermined the Russian army's control over the region.

Before September 8th, the Ukrainian army used the Haima rocket to attack Russian high-value targets for more than 4 times, attacking warehouses, command centers and infrastructure that could not be attacked before, which led to a serious shortage of Russian logistics.

MiG-29 fighters of the Ukrainian army carry anti-radiation missiles and constantly attack Russian radar or electronic warfare systems.

Russia has consumed a lot of troops, and it is difficult to make any significant territorial progress in the future. It seems to focus on consolidating the control of the existing territory.

Russian morale is low, and more and more soldiers refuse to fight or refuse orders from their superiors.

The Ukrainian army's offensive in Hellson distracted the Russian army, but it was not just a feint.

The Russian army transferred its most effective troops to the south to support Hellson, and there were obvious intelligence and command errors, and failed to discover the Ukrainian army's assembly in the northeast.

most of the Russian troops defending in northern Ukraine have not received frontline combat training. The Ukrainian army took advantage of the weak link of Russian defense, and tanks led high-mobility troops to quickly push behind Russian defense lines, ambushing and cutting off Russian reinforcements.

it seems that Russian troops cannot coordinate effective resistance or re-establish defense lines; On September 1th, Russian troops announced their withdrawal from Ikum, which was almost a symbolic statement after the complete rout in the region. Russian troops also withdrew all troops west of the Oskiel River.

the change of command of Russian army

In April, General Dvornikov, the head of the southern military region of Russian army, gained the operational command, but in June, he was relieved of his power, and it was said that General Zideko, director of the Political Bureau of Russian army, took over.

As of August, four of the five Russian military commanders, the head of airborne troops, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet and several junior commanders have been replaced.

According to the report, every brigade or regiment of the Russian army intends to establish at least two battalion-level tactical units, which are composed of 7-9 professional soldiers. In fact, some units only have 4-6 personnel.

Russian core fighters and mobile operational formations are relatively limited, and heavy casualties have aggravated the shortage of personnel.

another key issue is that the Russian army suffered heavy equipment losses, including tanks, armored fighting vehicles and artillery systems, forcing the Russian army to take out the old weapon systems in stock and deploy them on the battlefield.

even if Russia is fully producing, it is difficult to assess how long and to what extent it can make up for the loss of equipment; It is also difficult to determine whether Russia has enough stocks of key components to continue to produce advanced weapons.

Ukrainian troops also suffered heavy casualties in the eastern war.

In June, Ukrainian officials said that 1-2 soldiers were lost every day during the peak fighting. On August 22, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, said that nearly 9, people had been killed.

The report does not accurately predict whether Russia still has the military capability to achieve decisive results, or whether it can maintain operations throughout the winter.

judging from the current situation, the Russian army has been unable to organize large-scale operations in Ukraine, and the move of recruiting 3, troops confirms the shortage of available Russian troops.

1, Russian troops continue to struggle to balance the two fronts in eastern and southern Ukraine, and some commanders may even act as scapegoats.