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How to innovate my country’s macro-control policies under the new economic normal

1. Highlight supply thinking to cope with potential growth decline.

2. Clarify the "upper limit", "lower limit" and "bottom line" to improve interval regulation

3. Understand economic heterogeneity and growth imbalance and pay attention to structural regulation

4. Hand in hand with strategic planning and fiscal and monetary policies to broaden the horizons of macro-control

5. Establish a new baton for regulation and restart local competition

6. Consider the game of interests and grasp the political economy of macro-control Learn

7. Pay attention to the spillover effects of major countries and implement responsible macro policies

8. Respect "market determinism" and macroeconomic regulation cannot conquer the world

9. Advance The construction of "institutionalized" macro-control basically follows the 1. The main contradiction facing China's economy is medium- and long-term deceleration. Therefore, supply management thinking is more important in the medium- and long-term. China's economy is in terms of population and labor force. There are various "supply constraints" in terms of capital and finance, resources and property rights, technology and innovation, systems and division of labor. Only by relaxing population planning and family planning, relaxing the household registration system, reducing capital and financial controls, and optimizing land and resource property rights. Only by improving the economic structure can the long-term potential growth rate of the economy be improved.

2. Many problems in economic operation also need to be fundamentally solved, such as overcapacity. . From the perspective of the reasons for overcapacity, although there are cyclical factors, the more important reasons are institutional and supply-side reasons. This is mainly reflected in the increased support and competition of local governments in order to obtain preferential treatment for industries (such as providing land and capital). , preferential treatment in taxation, etc.), leading to the convergence of industrial policy orientations, leading to a more general homogeneity of regional industrial structures, which in turn leads to a large amount of overcapacity. Therefore, to fundamentally solve the problem of overcapacity, it is also necessary to highlight supply. Management ideas.

3. Emphasizing supply thinking does not mean giving up demand management, but expanding demand sometimes depends on supply management. In economic downturns, expanding demand is necessary, but only relying on demand management. Expanding domestic demand is not enough. In terms of investment demand, the main problem is not the total amount, but the structure. In the future, the important investment direction should be infrastructure construction, but in this regard, adjustments are needed. Investment structure. As far as consumer demand is concerned, if the income distribution structure and the industrial structure and factor input structure are not changed, it will be difficult to achieve the goal of expanding consumer demand. From this perspective, expanding domestic demand is not just about demand management, but also requires supply. Management. We should reduce the heavy reliance of micro entities on demand expansion policies, give full play to the incentive effect of supply policies, and focus on structural optimization and sustainable development.