First, the issue of combat power. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine basically did not have the ability to attack the Russian mainland on a large scale. Ukraine had been pursuing a non-aligned national policy for many years before 2014. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the signing of a series of subsequent denuclearization treaties have basically weakened Ukraine’s military value and pinned its national security hopes on the United States and Britain. The promises made by Russia and other five permanent members have been proven to be so stupid and unreliable! This is the tragedy of Ukraine and the tragedy of all countries on Blue Star that pursue a neutral national policy. Today, even if Zelenskiy still has two big "firecrackers" in his hands, and he is using Jin Lianggong's water tank as an embarrassment, he does not dare to fight without restraint.

Second, it is a matter of strategy. Before the Russian air raid on civilian shopping malls at the end of June, Ukraine had been very restrained in attacking the Russian mainland. The reason was that it did not want to overly stimulate the Russian people and make Jinliang There is no opportunity for national mobilization. There have always been anti-war voices in Russia, but they have been suppressed by the tyranny of Jinliang. Once the mainland is attacked by the Ukrainian army and the casualties are serious, it will inevitably incite war sentiments in Russia and contribute to further militarization in Jinliang.

Third, I believe that the Ukrainian military will take action in the future. On the one hand, NATO's heavy firepower will gradually be in place. In particular, the farthest range of Haimas is 300 kilometers, and the Ukrainian army objectively has long-range strike capabilities. On the other hand, the Russian army continues to attack civilian targets in Ukraine, making people and gods angry and resentful. It is natural for Ukraine to counterattack what Russia considers to be its “homegrown” targets. Therefore, I personally believe that the Ukrainian army will counterattack selectively. The most likely target of the attack is the Kerch Bridge in Crimea.