On June 5438+February, 2009, robert shiller came to Shenzhen to participate in the activities of an enterprise. When answering a question at the scene, he said: "China's economic development is very hot, but there are also some phenomena that must be guarded against. In Shenzhen, real estate is very hot and house prices remain high. "
Schiller said, "In Shenzhen, Shanghai and other big cities in China, people are buying houses, so the house price is actually several times their annual income. I don't know what the specific ratio is. We analyzed the ratio of house price to income by computer in California, and the figures we saw were 8 times and 10 times, which we thought was too high. If it is 8 times, it takes 8 years to buy a house. "
In 2009, Robert Shiller went to Shanghai to attend the EMBA Forum held by the School of Advanced Finance of Shanghai Jiaotong University. At that time, he said in an interview with the media that he was worried about the housing prices in Shanghai. "I have long heard that the housing price in Shanghai is basically one hundred times the annual income of an ordinary person. In other words, he has to work for a hundred years before he can buy a house with all his income. In that case, why did he buy this house? The answer is that he expects house prices to rise again. People are speculative. He thinks that the house will definitely rise in the future, but I think this is definitely irrational. " Robert Shiller said at the time.
20 1 1 At the 201annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (Davos Forum), Schiller once again talked about the real estate problem when interviewed by the China media, bluntly saying that there was a bubble in China real estate.
He said: "American house prices are still falling, and I am worried about when they will fall." The household debt ratio is still high, and many people lose their houses or move to other cities because of changing jobs. At the same time, the debt ratio of the United States has risen to an unprecedented high level, which makes people worry about whether the government has the ability to introduce new stimulus policies. The real estate bubble in China is very serious now. If the bubble bursts like the United States, it will hit China's economy. "
On March 5th, 20 14, Schiller said that the real estate prices in China are likely to fall, because the high housing prices in China are dangerous. For example, the housing price in Beijing is similar to that in London and new york, in other words, it is the highest in the world, so the risk of falling is very great. But I can't predict whether the real estate market in China will collapse in the future. I can only say that it is possible. The frequent real estate transactions in China last year caused a certain bubble, which can be solved by increasing transaction tax.