On August 2nd, Xiaomi, the "first stock of young people", fell back to the issue price of HK$ 17/share after the price stabilization period ended, and even broke for a while. Investors who have taken a wave of roller coasters can't help but ask, is there a good "double" market?

On June 22nd, Xiaomi founder Lei Jun, Lin Bin and other senior executives formally signed the prospectus of Xiaomi, and Xiaomi immediately launched the global public offering. On the morning of the same day, Xiaomi CEO Assistant "Xiaomi Company Chen Xi" shouted at the Weibo: The first stock with the same share and different rights on the HKEx, stock code: 181 (listed in 18 years, founded in 1 years), the first stock of young people, dear rice noodles, have you opened the account?

However, "Young People's First Stock" staged a roller coaster drama in the first month of listing.

Although the founder Lei Jun thinks that "Xiaomi is a rare all-round enterprise in the world, which can make hardware, e-commerce and Internet" and "Xiaomi's valuation should be Tencent times Apple", in the face of unsatisfactory IPO results, Lei Jun finally set the lowest issue price at HK$ 17/share.

although lei jun thinks that the issue price has been set to the lowest level, Xiaomi has not escaped the fate of breaking the first day. On July 9, Xiaomi suffered a break as soon as it opened, and the lowest price fell to HK$ 16/share, which was nearly 6% lower than the offering price, and it was very close to the cost price of HK$ 15.8/share when F-1 investors entered before IPO.

The situation quickly turned upside down under the impetus of people from all walks of life such as the "Green Shoes" support fund. On the first day of listing, Xiaomi's "green shoe mechanism" was triggered, and over-raised funds came out to support the market. The stock price fluctuated and rebounded, and finally fell by 1.18% to close at HK$ 16.8 per share.

On the evening of the first day of listing, Lei Jun held a celebration banquet for the listing of Xiaomi's main board in Hong Kong with his new and old friends. During the banquet, Lei Jun said, "Investors who bought Xiaomi's shares on the first day of listing should earn twice as much!" The data shows that Futu Securities, the gathering place of young investors, ranked second among Xiaomi's top ten net buying brokers on the first day and the next day of listing.

after that, Xiaomi was invincible. After recovering the opening price of HK$ 17 per share, it took only seven trading days to rush to HK$ 22.2 per share, and the market value of Xiaomi soared from US$ 5.7 billion to US$ 7.3 billion.

Seeing the sharp rise of millet, rice noodles seem to see the hope of "doubling for young people for the first time". However, the situation soon reversed again.

With the approaching of the deadline of price stabilization period and the sharp decline of global technology stocks, Xiaomi began to stage a diving market, "how to go up and how to go down". After only 11 trading days, the stock price returned to the vicinity of the issue price and broke again.

In Xiaomi's current roller coaster market, the "green shoe mechanism" has played an important role. According to calculations, in order to "stabilize" the stock price, Xiaomi spent 5.6 billion Hong Kong dollars to support the market.

Xiaomi announced on the 29th that the stable price period related to the global offering ended on July 28th, and Morgan Stanley fully exercised its over-allotment option on July 17th, overselling 327 million Class B shares at a price of HK$ 17 per share, accounting for about 15% of the global offering.

over-allotment is the "green shoe mechanism" commonly known in the market, and almost all slightly larger new shares in the international market will set up a "green shoe mechanism" to stabilize the share price of new shares. With the full exercise of the "green shoe mechanism" and the end of the price stability period, where will Xiaomi's share price go?

Southwest Securities compared Xiaomi with Amazon, a US stock company, and believed that Xiaomi's ecological circle had just formed, and the two freewheels of Internet service and ecological chain were spinning rapidly, and the road to future growth had just begun. However, unlike traditional Internet companies, Xiaomi has one more dimension (the number of device connections). As a new variable in the IOT (Internet of Things) era, the third flywheel based on IOT pan-interconnection and AI pan-intelligence will be the sea of stars explored by Xiaomi.

Southwest Securities gave Xiaomi a PE valuation of 4 times in 219, corresponding to a target price of HK$ 3.3 per share, and upgraded to a "buy" rating. Macquarie maintained Xiaomi's "out-of-market" rating on the grounds that Xiaomi's mobile phone shipments increased by 49% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, and gave a target price of HK$ 3 per share.

Different from the optimism of the organization, many young investors of Xiaomi chose to leave the market in this round of stock price decline, because they are worried that the financial report that Xiaomi will release in the middle and late August will not look good.

in April p>218, Xiaomi issued 63.96 million shares of Class B common stock to Smart Mobile Holdings Limited controlled by Lei Jun at a consideration of US$ 1,599. In response to the feedback from the mainland regulatory authorities, Xiaomi said that the equity incentive confirmed the share payment fee of 9.827 billion yuan. The equity granted to Lei Jun this time has been issued before listing and will not dilute the rights and interests of depositary receipts holders after listing.

but really? Some investors pointed out that Xiaomi's move may not dilute the rights and interests of depositary receipts holders, but it will definitely affect the performance in the second quarter.

Some analysts believe that Xiaomi's short-term stock price performance is still worth looking forward to. Restricted by the lock-up period, Xiaomi's cornerstone investors and original shareholders can only wait for half a year before shipment, and Lei Jun has the need to maintain stock price stability and market value management.

In addition, judging from the recent news that "Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 218 increased by 48.8% year-on-year" and "Xiaomi announced to enter the air-conditioning field with great fanfare", perhaps Lei Jun has not given up the dream of Xiaomi's market value of 1 billion US dollars.