This Golden Week is the bleakest Golden Week in the past five years.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other big brothers in the real estate market in the past have stalled one by one and been crushed one by one.

In the huge city of Beijing, the transaction volume of second-hand houses during the National Day period was as low as single digits, with only 41 houses sold in 6 days.

▼Residential transaction volume during Beijing’s “Golden Week” from 2014 to 2019

Even if the transaction volume of new homes is included, the number is only 200 units.

Golden Week trading volume fell to the lowest level in the past six years.

The most miserable thing is not Beijing. During the Golden Week in Shanghai, the transaction volume of new houses did not exceed 50 units.

Even in Shenzhen, where the landlords want to teach you how to be a good person every minute, even with the support of the demonstration area, the number of online signings is only more than 300, which is basically the lowest number of transactions in the past few years.

In contrast to the transaction volume, the number of second-hand house listings in most first- and second-tier key cities is rising steadily.

In 19 key cities, the number of second-hand housing listings was close to 1.2 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 80%.

The number of second-hand housing listings in some core cities has hit a new high in the past three years -

Chengdu exceeded 110,000 units; Chongqing nearly 120,000 units; Wuhan exceeded 100,000 units; Guangzhou Close to 60,000 units;

Hangzhou has exceeded 50,000 units due to the rush for new houses. If nothing goes wrong, it will exceed 100,000 units by the end of the year...

The past two In September, among all first- and second-tier cities in the country, more than one-third of the cities had second-hand housing prices that stopped rising sideways.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Hefei... these cities with the best fundamentals in the country have entered the "frozen housing cycle"——< /p>

New houses are not allowed to rise, second-hand houses cannot be sold, and transactions fall, making it harder to find buyers.

You must know that these cities are the backbone of China's real estate market, and they are the warehouses that accumulate the most funds in China's real estate market. These warehouses anchor more than 70% of the purchasing power in China's real estate market.

Nowadays, first- and second-tier cities have entered the "housing freeze cycle" one by one, and the money warehouses anchoring purchasing power have been defeated one by one by policies.

A huge problem has emerged over this huge country -

China's property market has entered a chaotic cycle in which hot money is fleeing in all directions and retail investors are fleeing for their lives.

A stock hunt around retail investors and hot money has begun.

In the past two months, I have been traveling around the country and Southeast Asia.

We went to all popular cities and visited all popular countries.

The more I look at it, the more confused I feel, and the more I look at it, the more I want to scold my mother.

1. The anchor of the domestic property market was shattered, and retail investors fled to Southeast Asia to buy blindly.

Many people saw that the domestic property market was no longer likely to have a critical impact in the short term, and began to look for other opportunities in Southeast Asia.

It is not impossible to go out, but the first goal of going out is to "avoid danger."

Unfortunately, as soon as greed comes online, IQ goes offline. As soon as the idea of ??critical attack arises, the probability of falling into a trap increases tenfold.

In Bangkok, you don’t want to buy a good house in the core urban area with subway, commerce, industry, population, and rent; you go to the empty cities in the outskirts to chase high-speed rail, gamble on concepts, and play crit. Be harvested.

We learned to speculate in off-the-plan real estate from Hong Kong, and Bangkok learned to speculate in high-speed rail from us.

Bangkok Bang Sue, using the concept of China-Thailand high-speed rail, sold more than half of the houses in the outer suburbs to Chinese speculators.

Anyway, it’s a gambler’s style of real estate speculation. If you don’t gamble on the high-speed rail new cities that are everywhere in the country, why go to Bangkok to gamble?

What kind of spirit is this?

This is a kind of "that spirit" that is not self-interested but only benefits others, filling holes and adding bricks and stones to the construction of international friendly relations.

2. The anchor of Shanghai's real estate market was shattered, and retail investors dispersed and bought blindly.

Before, we have mentioned that the purchasing power of the property market in the Yangtze River Delta is actually firmly anchored by the core cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou.

However, these cities are shutting down one after another. In the huge Shanghai, no more than 50 houses were sold during the Golden Week. Can you believe that this is still the same "Chinese money warehouse"?

When the core cities are in decline, purchasing power begins to follow the concept to find critical hits.

When it comes to the concept of speculation, we still have to bow to these magical old punks in the Yangtze River Delta.

Shout "society", "society".

This group of magical old punks are hyping up new areas and concepts.

Starting from Ningbo in the east, there is the Qianwan New District; heading west to Shaoxing, there is the Binhai New District; connecting to Hangzhou, there is the Qiantang New District; heading north to Huzhou, there is the South Taihu New District... The dots are connected into a patchwork, and there is a long history everywhere. The conceptual dividends of triangular integration;

From artificial intelligence to financial towns, there are also big data applications, modern manufacturing upgrades, robots in between... and Bitcoin has just been delisted after it became notorious. Blockchain town.

A concept creates a pit, and a string of retail investors are buried in each pit.

After Suzhou became cold, retail investors with hot money went to Changshu, Changzhou and Zhangjiagang.

I was just shocked by the fact that the ceiling in Changshu exceeded 30,000 yuan, and the house price in Jiangyin has reached 18,000 yuan/㎡...

Some people say that this is called house price rotation;

If you ask me, this is called IQ tax rotation.

3. The anchor of the residential property market was shattered, and retail investors rushed into apartments.

Two months ago, I wrote an article about apartments.

An hour after the article was posted, the backstage was already occupied by white shirts.

Roughly speaking, more than three generations of my ancestors have been greeted by this group of magical guys in shirts and ties.

Today, I don’t want to talk too much about the pitfalls of apartments. I just want to tell you a cruel reality:

The sales commission for apartments in many cities has been 10%;

The down payment is 20,000 yuan to buy an apartment, and the agent earns 100,000 yuan in agency fees.

In the investment community, there is an old saying: "The intermediary's margin is inversely proportional to the actual value of the underlying asset."

You taste it, you taste it carefully.

The past two months may have been one of the most difficult years for the property market.

Why "one"? Because there may be more difficult years ahead.

The amazing thing is that although the years are difficult, the harvest is getting stronger.

After the domestic property market confidence, the property market confidence in core cities, and the residential property market confidence were shattered, all kinds of monsters and demons took shape. Even those who are engaged in capital market want to hack the property market and get a scoop of traffic.

There are middlemen everywhere, everyone wants to make a profit.

Confused? Don't worry, tomorrow may be even more chaotic.

In the past ten years or so, the transaction volume of China's property market has been doubling and hitting new highs.

However, this doubling rate is getting slower and slower.

From 1998 to 2008, the annual growth was about 25%, doubling in three years;

From 2008 to 2012, the annual growth was about 15%, doubling in five or six years;< /p>

From 2012 to 2018, the annual growth rate was about 7%, doubling in nine to ten years.

2018 has entered an inflection point, and the transaction volume in 2018 only increased by 1.8% compared with 2017.

In the next ten years or so, it may even gradually shrink, from the peak of 1.7 billion square meters to 1 billion square meters.

China’s property market is moving from the “incremental era” to the “stock era”.

It was a good time in the past, when everyone had an increase. You had rice in your pot, and I still had meat in my bowl, so hello, me, hello, everyone;

Starting from this year , it may mean that there is rice in your bowl, and there is only soup in my bowl, so I have to stare at the rice in your bowl and try to snatch it away.

How to grab it? Speculate concepts and harvest!

Facing the more shameless snatching of stock and the more intense and disorderly market, I have three words for you.

These three sentences may not be able to help you with a critical attack or help you snatch the rice from other people’s bowls, but they can help you to the greatest extent to protect the rice from your own bowl.

First, the underlying value of investment products lies in solving a practical problem.

Before you choose an investment product, first think about who will buy it? Does it solve a real buyer problem?

Second, the underlying value of real estate lies in meeting the underlying needs of more people.

Behind the house is not the concept, but the users, living people.

The value of a house lies in meeting more people’s most basic needs for food, work, clothing, schooling, and medical treatment.

Third, it is best not to touch a target that has high returns but cannot be understood.

If a certain venue promises a stable annual return of more than 10%, but you don’t understand it, there is a high probability that there is a fool playing in the venue.

Always focus on these three sentences, which will help you avoid most harvests in the future.