Similar to Song Jiang's appearance in Chapter 18 of Water Margin, Zhuge Liang appeared in Chapter 38 of Romance of the Three Kingdoms. But his late arrival does not detract from his position as the protagonist of the novel. Because before this, although the romance has been written more than 30 times, the words "Three Kingdoms" have never appeared. It was not until Zhuge Liang appeared that the Romance of the Three Kingdoms was officially "titled", and such a long masterpiece began to qualify as the Romance of the Three Kingdoms.
; Zhuge Liang's words, like a bright light, lit up the chaotic world and confused prospects. The History of the Three Kingdoms seems to have completed its whole process step by step according to Zhuge Liang's design and arrangement. It can be said that Zhuge Liang is the designer of the Three Kingdoms and the brain and core of The Romance of the Three Kingdoms, and all this is mainly accomplished through the description of his decision-making activities.
Regarding Zhuge Liang's appearance, the 24th topic of the new version of The Romance of the Three Kingdoms in Pinghua is "Kongming Going Down the Mountain", and the eighth volume of Jiajing's popular Romance of the Three Kingdoms is "Setting Three Points to Show the Cottage". The seventh volume of the original Romance of the Three Kingdoms in the London Museum is Liu Bei's Three Visits to the Cottage and Three Points to the Prophet of the World. By the thirty-eighth time of Mao Zonggang's Romance of the Three Kingdoms, it was written as "decisive three points" and the word "decisive" came out, which can be said to be very insightful. of course
Mao Zonggang's so-called "decision science" cannot be confused with the present "decision science". However, as a social practice, decision-making has existed since human society, and the success or failure of all decision-making activities should also conform to the law of "decision science". What is "decision"? At present, there is no unified definition in academic circles. Generally speaking, decision-making is the act of choosing the best scheme among various schemes in order to achieve the best goal. Liu Bei, because of "the downfall of the Han Dynasty, the treacherous court official stole his life" and "trying to extend the righteousness to the whole world", has worked hard for half his life and achieved nothing so far. The goal that Liu Bei wants to pursue is, of course, the goal that Zhuge Liang decided to achieve. However, Zhuge Liang's choice of action plan is not only different from what Liu Bei once practiced, but also out of common sense:
Let Cao Cao dominate the north for one day, and let Sun Quan occupy the land in the south, and the general can occupy the people and peace. Make Jingzhou your home first, and then take it.
Give up the foundation, you can become a foothold, and then you can figure out the Central Plains.
This decision "not to persuade Xuande to take the land of Sun Tzu and Cao Cao, but to persuade Xuande to take the land of Er and Liu, will help the Han Dynasty and turn its imperial clan" (the 38th review of Romance of the Three Kingdoms) is based on his comprehensive evaluation of the objective situation of China and China. Chapter 43 describes Liu Bei's situation with medical methods when writing about the dispute between Zhuge Liang and Confucianism, and holds that "people should drink it with porridge and take it with medicine;" When the zang-fu organs are in harmony and the body is gradually safe, they should be supplemented with meat and treated with strong drugs; Then the root of the disease disappeared and everyone was born. Give a strong medicine without waiting for the pulse to ease, and I am embarrassed to seek a sense of security. " In sharp contrast to his own strength, Cao Cao "has millions of people, relying on the son of heaven to establish a vassal", and Sun Quan "has a river east, stretching for three generations, and the national danger is attached to the people". These two people can't be caught for the time being. But for Sun and Cao, different countermeasures should be taken: "Sun Quan is not desirable, so it should be punished" and "Cao Cao is not desirable, so it should be punished" (Chapter 38 of The Romance of the Three Kingdoms). Zhuge Liang later summarized this decision as "rejecting Cao Cao in the north and Sun Quan in the east". This decision to avoid a strong rival was first to establish its own inheritance in Jingyi, and then in Xu Tu Zhongyuan, which was generally in line with the situation of political and military struggle at that time. Alexander H. Kornel, an American management expert, said: "The policies, strategies, short-term plans, long-term plans and even daily work of all enterprises and institutions are composed of firm practical decisions and more firm foresight. These decisions and forecasts should be the best "(required reading for decision makers, Decision and Information,No. 1984). Zhuge Liang's decision-making activities in The Romance of the Three Kingdoms not only wrote his firm foresight of "three points", but also wrote his firm practical decision to realize this foresight. Write that he turned his overall decision into a practical decision; And the actual decision is to achieve the overall decision. This description fully embodies the holistic view, comprehensive view and long-term view of Zhuge Liang's decision-making From the description of Zhuge Liang's decision-making process in The Romance of Three Kingdoms, we can not only see that Zhuge Liang's decision-making itself is unsuccessful, but also see that it is wise to write about his victory or failure, which conforms to historical and artistic logic and dispels the mystery. Moreover, we can see how the Romance of the Three Kingdoms handled the failure and bluntness in this decision in order to realize its overall creative intention and express its general ideological tendency, and how it was handled artistically.
From the classification of decision-making subjects, Zhuge Liang's decision belongs to personal decision-making. Whether individual decision-making can play its positive role depends on whether he has certain personal and social conditions. As far as personal conditions are concerned, Zhuge Liang's quality, wisdom, talent, experience and energy should be said to be completely competent; As far as social conditions are concerned, Zhuge Liang is complacent about Liu Bei's trip to the cottage, that is, he entrusts him with a heavy responsibility and gains considerable power. However, this is not static. We can divide Zhuge Liang's decision-making activities into two stages according to the changes of social conditions. The first stage is from visiting the thatched cottage to entrusting an orphan to Baidicheng. The second stage is from Baidicheng to Wuzhangyuan. Mao Zonggang said in the eighty-fifth review of Liu's Will Entrust Orphans: "Since Taoyuan, it can be described as a happy ending. However, since then, the first master's business has ended, and Kong Ming's business will start again. Take Xichuan and Hanzhong before, from Caotang and Sangu; After Meng Huo was captured alive for the seventh time, he went out of Qishan six times and asked Bai Di for help. Therefore, it is very reasonable that an article in the front picture is the end and an article in the back picture is an introduction.
Look at the first stage first. Liu Bei was complacent about Kong Ming, saying that "fish can get water", but the fish was Liu Bei himself. Liu Bei, an extraordinary master, has his own subjective will and belief, so it is inevitable that there will be interference and violation of Zhuge Liang's decision, and this interference and violation comes from Zhuge Liang's strength, so the result is extraordinary. Zhuge Liang came out of the mountain, "The defeat is fatal." Liu Bei asked Cao Bing to reject his plan. Kong Ming said, "I heard that Liu Jingsheng was dying recently, so I can take this opportunity to take Jingzhou as a place to live, and I can refuse Cao Cao." "Taking Jingzhou as home" was originally a very clear decision of Longzhong, which belonged to the actual decision in short-term planning, but Liu Bei refused with the grace of "being promoted by Jingsheng and forbearing". Liu Biao died, and Liu Cong arrogated the nine counties of Jingxiang to Cao Cao. Kongming agreed to Yi Ji's proposal to capture Liu Cong alive in the name of mourning and take Jingzhou, but Liu Bei refused. Mao Zonggang commented: "If you don't take it, you will make Jingzhou the Jingzhou owned by Cao Cao and the Jingzhou that Sun Quan wants. So you borrowed Jingzhou, divided it into Jingzhou, took Jingzhou, and returned it to Jingzhou, leaving countless kudzu vines, all of which are the mistakes of this volume "(comment on the 40th chapter of Romance of the Three Kingdoms). Jingzhou could have been easily won, but Liu Bei's "excessive benevolence and righteousness" led to a missed opportunity, and it was still full of difficulties, which interfered with Zhuge Liang's decision. However, Liu Bei's move accords with Longzhong's decision-making spirit of "occupying people's peace". The so-called "people-oriented", so it is hard to say that Liu Bei is wrong.
Liu Bei did not listen to Zhuge Liang's decision and once again crusaded against Wu Dong. Zhuge Liang remonstrated, saying, "The thief of Wu used trickery, which led to Jingzhou's downfall: the stars fell on the bullfight, and the Tianzhu fell on the Chu land; I can't forget this sad feeling. But those who want to move to Ding Han are all condemned by Cao Cao; The people who moved Liu Zuo have surpassed Sun Quan. Stealing means that if Wei thief is removed, Wu Zibin takes it. May your majesty accept Fu Qin's words and stones to support his soldiers and not make a good plan. " Liu Bei, eager for revenge, led his troops to the East and was defeated by Lu Xun. Liu Bei sighed, "If I had listened to the Prime Minister, I would not have lost today."
Coupled with Liu Bei's interference, Guan and Zhang, the veterans of Taoyuan Sanjieyi, are all above and beyond control. Guan Gong wanted to compete with Ma Chao in Sichuan, but later he didn't want to associate with Huang Zhong, so Kong Ming only used words like "peerless master" to follow his heart. People who leave Guan Yu alone in Jingzhou are also embarrassed to have enough people to make friends with them. Guan Gong's pride in underestimating his enemy led to the destruction of the decision of "Dongping Sun Quan" and caused irreparable losses.
But on the whole, at the end of Liu Bei's life, Zhuge Liang gained handy planning power and coordination power, which made his decision come true step by step.
The first major achievement of Zhuge Liang's decision-making was Jingzhou, which involved the clever use of the strategy of uniting with Wu. In the face of Cao Cao's invasion to the south, both Sun and Liu had the desire to unite. However, in terms of strength comparison, Liu Bei is obviously at a disadvantage. In this unbalanced relationship, Zhuge Liang used his decision-making ability to turn passivity into initiative. "Kong Ming is very clever. I don't need help, but people will come to me." "The meaning of asking for help is very urgent, so he pretends to disdain asking for help; The chest is very important and the mouth is hesitant. " (Comment on Chapter 42 of Romance of the Three Kingdoms) He not only played honest Lu Su in his palm, but also stood out in front of clever Zhou Yu. In the alliance, Kong Ming always kept a clear head, paying attention to both the overall situation and the struggle in the alliance, thus ensuring Chibi's brilliant victory over Cao. However, Zhuge Liang did not turn this practical experience of unity struggle into theory and an organic part of decision-making. He never mentioned that the foundation of Sun-Liu alliance was only to resist Cao Cao, and once Cao Cao withdrew, the contradictions between the two sides would be irreconcilable. Liu Bei wants Jingzhou, but why doesn't Sun Quan want Jingzhou? The death of Liu Bei captured Jingzhou not so much by Cao Cao as by Sun Quan. Although Confucius said that Jingzhou was "attacking Cao Shi, not Dongwu, taking what Dongwu must take, not taking what Dongwu has taken" (the fifty-first review of Romance of the Three Kingdoms); But from a moral point of view, this attack on the allied victory made Kong Ming feel guilty. In order to slow down the sudden attack of Dongwu, Liu Qi was first used to slow it down, then Xichuan was used to slow it down, and finally a document of "temporarily borrowing Jingzhou" was made to slow it down. From the literary point of view, the writing style is solid and tortuous, and it seems that good and evil are distinct; However, from the point of view of decision-making, there are many options for keeping Jingzhou, but the strategy of "borrowing Jingzhou" has laid endless hidden dangers for the future. Zhao Yi believes that "the theory of borrowing Jingzhou comes from the theory of Wu personnel, not the matter of the day". His reason is:
1, "My husband lent me all, pretending to be others, and Jingzhou is the land of Liu Biao, not the thing of Sun Shi";
2, Zhuge Liang said Sun Quan, once said that "the general can break the drill with Yuzhou, then Jing and Wu are both strong, and the three pillars are separated", so "there are three points at this time, rather than begging for power to take Jingzhou and borrow it";
3, "Battle of Red Cliffs, Yu and Bei * * * broke Cao", "I have never been independent of, but I am ready to enjoy the success"; 4. "After breaking Cao Cao, prepare the table for Jingzhou Secretariat. The emperor is no different, Jingzhou is the land "; On the 5th, Liu Qi died of illness. "The group pushed for Jingzhou Pastoral ... and sent troops to station separately, but under the command of Bei, they didn't participate at first, so there was no need to have white electricity for Bei, so the power didn't come to hinder Bei" [Zhao Yi: Notes on the Twenty-two Histories]. The Romance of the Three Kingdoms is exactly the same as that revealed by Zhao Yi, so Zhuge Liang won't worry about it. However, he chose to borrow Jingzhou because his behavior was inconsistent with the theory of "East and Sun Quan", so he wanted to make up for it and delay the opportunity. Pang Tong is dead, Zhuge Liang is going to Sichuan, and when he gives Jingzhou to Guan Gong, he only tells him that he "loves Sun Quan in the east and refuses Cao Cao in the north", and the connotation is even worse. It should be noted that with the rapid changes in the situation, the relationship between Sun and Liu is far from comparable on the eve of Battle of Red Cliffs. As far as Liu Bei is concerned, to resist Cao is to unite with Wu. But for Sun Quan, retaking his dream Jingzhou is the first priority for his development. At that time, Mrs. Sun had already left, and the alliance between Sun and Liu had actually broken down. In the right place, it is not enough for Kong Ming not to teach the plan of coping with the war and not to be alert to the danger of Sun Quan supporting the alliance. What is particularly wrong is that when Cao Cao was negotiating to take Xizhou, Zhuge Liang actually set up three counties, Jiangxia, Changsha and Guiyang, which made Wu attack and affect the trend of integration. According to Jing Xiang, Liu Bei asked Ma Liang about his conservative plan. Ma Liang said, "Jingxiang is under attack from all sides, so I'm afraid it won't last long ... and then it's a long-term plan to conquer Wuling, Changsha, Guiyang and Lingling in the south and collect money and grain." Guiyang, Changsha and so on. It is not the land of Wu, but Zhao Yunhe's income. Kong Fangming won Xichuan and ceded three counties. This practice of seeking reunification by concession is all wet. Although the loss of Jingzhou was attributed to Guan Gong underestimating his enemy, it was fundamentally Kong Ming's mistake. After Pang Tong entered Shu, Kong Ming stayed, Zhang Fei and Zhao Yun guarded Jingzhou. Pang Tong died, Zhuge Liang went to Shu, and Zhang and Ye Zhao took him away, leaving Guan Yu alone, which was a sign of neglect. Later, it was learned that Guan Gong refused Wu Dong's proposal of marriage, and Kong Ming said, "Jingzhou is in danger. Can someone repay Guan Gong?" However, it has not been implemented; Jingzhou front-line good news frequently spread, and the novel said, "Therefore, Liu Bei was relieved." Is Kong Ming relieved? There is nothing in the book, so it seems at least reassuring. The strategic goal of Liu Bei's attack on Wu is to recapture Jingzhou, so it is completely correct and necessary. Decision-making should be a dynamic process of taking decisive actions to adapt to environmental changes, rather than a fixed means. Under certain circumstances, Soochow brazenly attacked Jingzhou, which led to the loss of its strategic position. At this time, the conflict with Dongwu has risen to a dominant position and must be resolved with all efforts. Even if we want to talk about unity, we can't exclude struggle and compromise, which is really detrimental to unity. However, Kong Ming was too persistent in the rule of "rejecting Cao Cao in the north and Sun Quan in the east", and even said that "Wu Zibin would take the Wei thief if he had been removed early". Imagine how to achieve the goal of "getting rid of Wei thieves early" if Jingzhou is not recaptured. Regardless of Zhuge Liang's remonstrance, Liu Bei mobilized 750,000 troops and won the pavilion in one fell swoop. All the people in the south of the Yangtze River were frightened, and Sun Quan was timid and bound to surrender, and promised to hand Jingzhou over, return his wife, form an alliance forever, and destroy Wei. The change of the situation proves the necessity of struggle within the alliance. Liu Bei refused to let the wind turn and made up his mind to "destroy Wu first, then Wei." This policy is not calm enough, but it cannot be said to be unreasonable. Mao Zonggang said: "Whoever does not eliminate cruelty must first cut his party. For example, Yin wanted to attack Jie Li, but first attacked Wei, Gu and Kunwu; It is also right to cut Chong and Mi first when cutting Zhou. " (Comment on Chapter 81 of Romance of the Three Kingdoms) Wu Wei conspired to sneak attack on Jingzhou, which was really the behavior of the Party and Wei. The problem is that Liu Bei's soldiers benefited from anger and arrogance, and finally lost to Lu Xun. The failure of Wu Zhizhi was mainly due to subjective command errors, and there was no reason to lose. If Liu Bei wins Wu Dong, it is hard to guarantee that he will not realize his heroic plan to destroy Wei. Unfortunately, the defeat in this battle made him lose his strength. Zhuge Liang attacked the contradiction between Wu Youqing and reason. When Liu Bei was defeated in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Zhuge Liang sighed: "If the filial piety of the law exists, it can control the Lord and make him not east; If you go back to the East, you won't be in danger. " The Romance of the Three Kingdoms didn't mention it, but Zhuge Liang didn't know the significance of attacking Wu, but he couldn't make a comprehensive and accurate judgment on the factors of decision-making. If he actively supports Liu Bei's decision to go east with the army, he can at least guarantee that he will not be in danger. Tracing the cause made a plan to burn the camp, that is, he said, "I have this plan, but I can't hide it from Zhuge Liang." Fortunately, this person is not here, which makes me a great success. " It can be seen that Zhuge Liang has a serious responsibility for the emergence of this dangerous situation of reversal.