If the impact of internet finance and the development of direct financing market, the importance of banks as the main intermediary of social financing gradually declines, and it is not so easy for commercial banks to make money and their development prospects are not so good, is it the "cold winter" of the banking industry? In my opinion, the impact and influence are inevitable, but it is also an opportunity for the transformation of the bank's business model-the transformation of the business model, not the transformation of the profit model. No matter how banks operate, the profit model is nothing more than spreads and charges. Commercial banks are a strong regulatory industry. Before the marketization of interest rates, indirect financing (that is, borrowing) was the main financing channel, and high profits could be obtained through high spreads. At present, the operation mode of banks mainly depends on opening as many outlets and setting up counters as possible, and relying on account managers to pull customers and deposits (loans can only be made after deposits). Banks in this mode are human resource-intensive industries, and the investment of banks is mainly human input, network construction and IT input. Look at the bank's statements. Generally speaking, the proportion of labor costs to operating expenses is above 55%, and depreciation and amortization generally account for more than 5% (depending on different stages of development). I haven't counted the rental and operating expenses, but according to my impression, it is normal to reach 20%. At this stage, the banking industry is facing the following situations: the interest rate is basically marketized, on the one hand, the competition among banks is intensified, on the other hand, the economy is going down, the country continues to implement monetary easing policy, the loan interest rate is also going down, and the spread is narrowing (why the loan interest rate is going down, why the spread is narrowing, and the actual influencing factors are complicated, which can be explained in another article); The state has vigorously developed the capital market, and the scale of direct financing has been continuously expanded (according to the data of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of June, the proportion of corporate bonds and stock financing in the total social financing was 14.6%, which was 9.24 percentage points higher than the 5.36% since the data was released by the People's Bank of China in 20 12+0), and the proportion of indirect financing through credit decreased accordingly.