165438+ 10/9, Malaysia 15 general election ended. According to the preliminary results announced by the Election Commission on the 20th, no single political party or coalition of political parties has obtained a simple majority in the lower house of parliament.
Among the three most powerful camps, the Hope Alliance and the National Alliance are evenly matched, and the National Front, which has been in power for a long time, suffered a crushing defeat.
Some commentators said that this was the first time in Malaysian history that a "suspended parliament" was elected. So far, the prospect of forming a cabinet is still unclear, and local small parties may become "kings".
"Malay tsunami"
As the highest legislative body of the country, the Malaysian Parliament consists of the House of Lords and the House of Commons. The House of Commons has 222 seats for a five-year term and is elected by general election. A political party or alliance with a majority in the House of Commons can form a government with its leader as its prime minister.
The last general election in Malaysia was held on 20 18, and the term of office of elected members will end in 2023. However, the Prime Minister has the right to seek the dissolution of Parliament at any time before the end of his term. In June+10, 5438, the current Prime Minister Ismail said in a speech that he was going to dissolve the parliament and hold a new general election because of the serious social, economic and political impact, and it was approved by the Supreme Head of State Abdullah.
1 65438+1On October 20th, the Election Committee announced the ownership of 2 19 seats in the House of Commons, another1seat was postponed, and another two seats were postponed due to the weather.
Generally speaking, the three camps have not reached the threshold of 1 12 seats. Ximeng continued to maintain its position as the "boss" of the National Assembly and won 82 seats; The League of Nations won 73 seats, which was regarded as the "biggest surprise" of this election. BN swallowed the biggest defeat in previous elections and won only 30 seats.
At the local level, the three local political parties in Sabah and Sarawak in the east played a stabilizing role and won most of the seats except the three camps.
This is the first time since Malaysia's previous general elections that no one has passed. After the results were announced, both the Greek League and the League of Nations claimed that they had enough support to form a government. BN indicated that it would accept the people's choice, but did not admit defeat in the election. It is reported that although the BN has only 30 seats, it is still possible to join hands with the League of Nations to regain power.
Public opinion believes that it is generally consistent with the poll forecast, and no one has an absolute advantage. The outstanding performance of the League of Nations, the fiasco of the BN and the pivotal role of local political parties are the main features of this election.
"It is not surprising that the three political parties did not obtain a simple majority." Luo Yongkun, deputy director and associate researcher of Southeast Asia and Oceania Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that from the final result, the seats of the three parties are not much different from those before the election. As the outside world said, the League of Nations has made great progress, but this result is not completely satisfactory. The League of Nations originally hoped to be in power alone, but now it is the second place, but it has not achieved the expected goal, but it has more room for change than the BN.
"The performance of BN is too poor, which is still beyond my expectation." Xu Liping, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute of the China Academy of Social Sciences, said that from the previous local elections, the BN election was obviously dominant, but this election was a complete failure. There may be two reasons for this.
First of all, the failure of BN leaders in strategy. Its chairman, Zahid, rejected the candidate of the current Prime Minister Ismail camp out of personal interests when determining the candidate, which undermined internal unity. Second, the 2.0 version of the "Malay Tsunami" is stronger than expected, and a new round of political power differentiation and combination is underway.
Since the last general election on 20 18, Malays have shown a tendency to split and change because of their disgust and dissatisfaction with UMNO's long-term governance and corruption scandal. Umno's traditional ticket warehouse was seriously lost and its 60-year rule was overthrown. More young people pin their hopes on the League of Nations, which also takes defending the rights and interests of Malays as its slogan. "For example, the Indigenous Unity Party in the League of Nations has sprung up suddenly." Xu Liping said that there were only six seats in 20 18, and later it became a very important parliamentary party because it attracted "job-hopping" members from other political parties such as UMNO.
Lian Po, an old general, is old now.
Equally surprising is that Mahathir, a 97-year-old political veteran and former prime minister, also lost in Langkawi constituency. This is his first election defeat in 53 years.
According to the Election Commission, Mahathir ranked fourth in the five-party competition in the above-mentioned constituency, with only more than 4,500 votes, a difference of more than 20,000 votes from the winner. He not only lost his seat, but also lost his election deposit because of his low votes. In addition, the candidates of the political party "Motherland Action Front" led by him were completely annihilated.
"Mahathir not only lost, but also lost in an amazing way." Al Jazeera said that as an evergreen tree in Malaysian politics, Mahathir served as prime minister for 24 years. During his tenure, Malaysia built highways and ports, created industrial parks, attracted foreign investment, and gradually turned from a backwater into one of the largest exporters of high-tech products in the world. He also won the title of "Father of Modern Malaysia". Today, the complete defeat of him and his party also marks the end of an era in Malaysia.
In this regard, Xu Liping pointed out that Mahathir's failure was still the result of the split and turn of Malays. They are looking for a new political party that can really form a government and safeguard their own interests. Mahathir himself is old, and his political parties are mostly new faces with limited influence. Indigenous Unity Party and Islamic Party have become important choices for Malays.
Luo Yongkun believes that Mahathir's defeat is not difficult to understand. Since he stepped down in February 2020, his influence has been weakening, and political circles need young power to supplement it. "But it is still surprising that no one in his party was elected. This reflects that in Malaysia, the three major alliances still control the whole situation. It is still difficult for small parties to make waves. "
Fight without breaking
Under the pressure of slow growth and rising inflation in Malaysia, people hope to provide greater impetus for economic recovery by ending political uncertainty for a period of time through elections. Now in the state of "floating parliament", can this simple wish be realized?
Some Southeast Asian scholars are optimistic that "suspending parliament" and "uniting the horizontal" are not bad news for Malaysia's political stability.
From a global perspective, "floating parliament" is widespread in Europe and several Commonwealth countries, which also brings them political stability, economic vitality and social inclusion.
From Malaysia's point of view, a major cause of political turmoil in recent years is the power struggle around corruption cases. The current government has an excessive advantage and can appoint the Minister of Justice, who has the right to selectively prosecute or dismiss the charges. This virtually encourages corruption and incites inner-party struggle. Now that all parties are holding each other back, it may help to accept each other's long-term existence and create a relatively level playing field.
Two analysts pointed out that the major camps are negotiating behind the scenes, the formation of a cabinet is advancing, the deadlock in Congress is unlikely to occur, and the League of Nations is in a better situation and has a greater chance of winning. One possible solution is that Ximeng cooperates with local political parties or the League of Nations in Sabah; Another potential solution is for the League of Nations to cooperate with the BN and draw local political parties to form a cabinet together. But what is certain is that no matter who comes to power, the political situation in Malaysia will fluctuate and the parliamentary struggle will continue for some time.
"Judging from the recent elections, the political structure in Malaysia has changed, and ethnic and religious issues are no longer the core contradictions. The most intense competition is the infighting between several Malay political parties, especially the struggle between political elites. " Luo Yongkun pointed out that no political party can govern alone, and the future opposition party will certainly not accept it. The final ruling Coalition is still only a simple majority in Congress. It is not necessarily the political party with the most seats that takes office to form a cabinet, and the competition among various forces is still fierce.
Xu Liping pointed out that if the League of Nations, the BN and the Sarawak Party Coalition are jointly in power, they will return to the present caretaker government. The structure of the Coalition government has not changed, only the dominant factions have changed. The new prime minister may be the leader of the League of Nations. The existing domestic and foreign policies will basically continue. However, the future Coalition government and political division and reorganization are not stable.
However, although the struggle is still a main line, the two analysts still mentioned two stable points.
First, the general direction of Malaysia's political situation is overall stability, local fluctuations, and there will be no too much confusion. 20 18 Up to now, Malaysia has experienced three prime ministers and fought with each other three times. The political situation is still under control and there is no violent impact.
Second, China-Malaysia relations will continue to improve in the next few years. Leaders of several major political parties, including leaders of the League of Nations and former Prime Minister Muhideen, have had many contacts with leaders of China. China-Malaysia relations will remain stable.