At the beginning of 2006, the Asian Development Bank introduced a concept of currency symbol called "Asian Monetary Unit" (ACU). Similar to the "European monetary unit" before the introduction of the euro, this is not a real currency that can be used in circulation, but a virtual currency weighted based on the currency value, GDP and trade scale of several Asian countries. ADB will verify its exchange rates against the US dollar and the euro and publish them on its website to measure the changing rules and fluctuation controllability of Asian currency exchange rates. Relevant countries can adjust their financial and monetary policies accordingly, so that the monetary mechanism will gradually move closer to the "Asian monetary unit", thus laying the foundation for the formal introduction of the Asian dollar in the future. However, due to political and technical disputes over which currencies should be included in the Asian monetary unit and how to allocate their weights, the plan was postponed.
"10,000 years is too long, just seize the day." The outbreak of the financial crisis has prompted the top decision makers in Asian countries and around the world to fully face up to the necessity and feasibility of Asian monetary union. Relevant Asian countries should put the great cause of building the Asian dollar on the formal agenda, set up full-time institutions to take charge, and actively promote the design and construction of the Asian monetary cooperation framework.
Drawing lessons from the experience of the euro development process, the prerequisite for the maturity of regional monetary integration is economic integration, political will, extensive cultural identity and necessary cohesion.
Overall balanced economic development is the basic condition for establishing "Asian dollar". There are already some free trade agreement networks in Asia, and the conditions are relatively mature. All parties can maintain their own currencies and start with economic integration and implement regional integration in different regions and stages. By establishing regional economic cooperation organizations, free trade zones, economic integration, monetary cooperation alliances and financial crisis prevention systems, we will strengthen regional economic cooperation, seek stable development, adopt a relatively fixed exchange rate mechanism, greatly reduce internal transaction costs, narrow the gap between countries' economic systems and development levels, and create conditions for cross-regional and expanded cooperation.
Therefore, the virtual currency of "Asian monetary unit" separated from political sovereignty should be introduced as soon as possible, and the fields of trade accounting, clearing and reserve should be developed from comparative observation to practical attempt, and then transformed and upgraded in stages through "virtual Asian dollar", "trade Asian dollar" and "small Asian dollar" to "big Asian dollar", so as to finally realize the Asian single currency area.
Compared with Europe, Asia has a vast territory and many countries, and there are huge differences in economic development, social system, geopolitics and values (including differences in ideology and religious beliefs). The historical and profound gap between territorial disputes and feuds makes the maturity of these premises far from each other. Therefore, the establishment of a unified Asian dollar will be an arduous, gradual and long-term process, which requires repeated consultations among countries; But we can start from a place with more mature conditions.
This "mature place" should first include China, Japan, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN; The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is ten countries in "10+3" East Asia. In 2004, the leaders of "10+3" have taken "East Asia * * * * as a long-term goal and a constant direction of efforts. (Mongolia and North Korea are also East Asian countries and can join in due course. In addition, India, located in South Asia, is not a member of APEC, but has become an observer of ASEAN. In recent years, he has actively participated in the ASEAN negotiations, shown strong interest in joining Asian monetary integration, and may become a recent partner of "East Asia".
ASEAN is an active promoter of regional integration; China respects and supports the leading role of ASEAN in promoting regional integration, and this position is very clear. The diversity within ASEAN is obvious. There are great differences in religious traditions, national habits, social systems and political systems, and there are often many contradictions within ASEAN. However, ASEAN seems to be particularly good at taking diversity as a positive resource, and it can still form a * * * understanding on many major issues. These characteristics of ASEAN have a very good experience for East Asian integration.
10 ASEAN leaders have reached a consensus that trade barriers will be eliminated 20 15 years ago, thus creating an economic entity similar to the European union.
1997, Japan put forward the idea of establishing an Asian monetary fund and promised to provide it with 1000 billion dollars. In May 2000, at the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank, finance ministers of various countries signed the Chiang Mai Agreement in Chiang Mai, Thailand, agreeing to extend the scope of currency swap agreements among ASEAN member countries to China, Japan and South Korea. On this basis, the Asian bond fund was launched in 2004, and the Asian bond market agreement was strongly promoted. At present, the member countries have signed the 16 bilateral currency swap agreement under the framework of "10+3", with a total scale of US$ 36.5 billion.
On June 4th, 2002, China and ASEAN 10 countries signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN in Phnom Penh. The two sides reached a timetable, and China and the old ASEAN members Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand will establish a free trade zone in 20 10. The free trade zone covers more than 654.38+08 billion people, with a total GDP of nearly 4 trillion US dollars and an area of about 654.38+04 million square kilometers. It is the largest free trade zone composed of developing countries in the world, and it is also one of the regions with the fastest economic growth, the most economic potential and development vitality in the world.
The leaders of China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and other Asian countries 13 reached an agreement in Beijing on October 24th, 2008 to set up a mutual fund of 80 billion US dollars before June 2009, in order to prevent the regional financial crisis, defend their currencies, and ensure the establishment of foreign exchange channels, especially in view of the depletion of US dollars caused by the export depression. Among them, China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to provide 80% of the funds, about 64 billion US dollars, and the remaining 654.38+06 billion US dollars will be jointly funded by ASEAN member countries. This move undoubtedly means a big step forward in the direction of establishing an Asian monetary fund.
Asia is vast and complicated. In the near future, the reality of Asian dollar lies in the introduction of virtual currency, trade currency and even unified currency in East Asia. Not the whole of Asia, including West Asia, the Middle East and CIS countries. Strictly speaking, Shunyi, a unified currency originated from the same body in East Asia, should be called "the first Asian dollar"; However, as the regional unified currency with the strongest economy, the largest population and the earliest start in Asia, it is not necessary to call Asian dollar directly. Compared with the euro, since its birth, all European countries have not been included, so the British Empire still insists on the pound lineup.
As far as immediate interests are concerned, the United States will not want the world financial market to be polarized by the dollar, the euro and the Asian circle, but it is impossible for the United States to stop the inevitable trend of historical development. East Asian integration will not exclude the legitimate interests of the United States, but will respect the necessary rights of the United States to participate in multilateral affairs in East Asia. Therefore, although the United States expressed its opposition at the beginning, it is no longer opposed. On June 19, 2006, Tim Adams, US Deputy Treasury Secretary, said at the World Economic Forum meeting in Tokyo that the United States was not opposed to the creation of an Asian monetary unit, which showed that the attitude of the United States had changed on this issue. Adams said that the attitude of the United States towards Asian monetary units is "somewhat confusing" and the United States is not afraid of strengthening monetary cooperation in emerging Asian economies. "We are not opposed to the creation of Asian currencies. On the contrary, we hope to play a constructive role in this process and help the formation of Asian currencies."
Facing the shock wave of the financial crisis, it is imperative for the international community to vigorously promote global cooperation to save the market and strive to restore the normal operation of the financial system as soon as possible; Focus on reforming financial supervision. As for the current reform of the international monetary system, an important issue involving the status of the US dollar and the development of a diversified world monetary system should also be put on the agenda. It is very necessary for the leaders of the world's major economies to establish a clear understanding, give the green light, fully support and create favorable conditions, especially the commitment of the United States, the world's financial hegemon, which will be an important step in the diversification of international settlement currencies. But you can't expect a fairy to make a decision to return to the gold standard; It is also impossible to break away from the basic principles of the open market and forcibly accept non-US dollar dominant currencies without rigid value guarantee.
Recently, European leaders strongly advocated the slogan of rebuilding the Bretton Woods system. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is particularly prominent. He said that the capitalist system that has ruled the entire international financial transaction since World War II should be "re-established". We have no right to let the luck and opportunity of the financial system established in 2 1 century flow away from us. Two other political giants in Europe, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are staunch supporters of Sarkozy.
Some European officials, such as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, suggested that in order to reshape the world financial system, it is necessary for countries to re-formulate relevant principles similar to the Bretton Woods system after World War II.
Obviously, these ambitious leaders hope to establish a new international financial system with great potential with the euro to replace the current international financial system centered on the US dollar. Like all freely convertible international currencies, the actual position or weight of the euro in today's "non-systematic system" is determined by the market. If the euro performs well, it can compete with the dollar in market operation; In fact, before the financial crisis broke out, some countries outside the EU had accepted the euro as the international trade settlement currency. The exchange rates of Cape Verde, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Comoros, French overseas franc, Central African franc and West African franc are all directly linked to the euro. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also often discusses pricing oil in euros. Venezuela and Iraq under Saddam Hussein supported the Euro oil plan.
However, in the information revolution known as the third wave of human history, Europe shows that its creativity and competitiveness are far behind the United States. Lack of a unified political environment and the ability to take unified actions among EU member States; After the euro was founded, there has always been an inherent depreciation trend, which once showed a strong appreciation against the US dollar, largely because of the active depreciation of the US dollar.
According to the currency composition data of official foreign exchange reserves (COFER) published by the International Monetary Fund, the proportion of euro in official foreign exchange reserves has increased in recent years, but it is far from replacing the dominant position of US dollar. At the end of 2007, the proportion of US dollar foreign exchange reserves still reached 63.9%. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves in industrial countries or emerging developing countries has not fundamentally changed. The dollar is still the standard of international credit and pricing settlement, the main means of payment for international settlement and the main body of international reserve currency. The rule-making power in the United States has not changed.
In this financial crisis, the dollar did not fall to the ground as many economists thought. On the contrary, the dollar is regarded as a safe haven in the storm, and its upward trend is more and more obvious under the impetus of continuous safe-haven buying. Since the beginning of August 2008, even if the United States kept cutting interest rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro rose by 23%, against the British pound by 34%, and even more for some developing countries. The US dollar has strengthened again, indicating that the subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis have not brought about a rapid decline in the overall strength of the United States, and it is expected that the United States will take the lead in getting out of the predicament. Although ambitious and aggressive French President Nicolas Sarkozy is eager to lead the euro out of the predicament, Sarkozy may still be unable to solve the internal contradictions between the still powerful United States and the euro zone.
In other words, Europe's one-on-one fight against the dollar is actually weak and difficult to achieve. Today, the world economy has been divided into three parts: the United States, Europe and Asia. Emerging economies in East Asia are the main force driving global growth. Only when these three factors play their due roles in the modern diversified world monetary system can we effectively establish a fairer, just, healthier and more stable new international financial order.
It is hard to imagine that major Asian countries such as China and Japan will be willing to give up their own currencies, but they can first establish a * * * currency composed of a certain group of currencies in Asia, and strive to make a regional currency circulate in Asia without giving up their own currencies; And then expand the effect, from "small Asian dollar" to "big Asian dollar", and gradually form a diversified world monetary system of US dollar, Euro and Asian dollar.
At the same time, due to the impact and urging of the financial crisis, the seemingly distant prospect of unifying the world currency has also appeared the possibility of building a primary "world dollar." This is similar to the above-mentioned "Asian monetary unit" or the once popular "European monetary unit" global application; For example, Wagner Opera Overture plays a practical role in virtual testing, standard comparison, international trade accounting, liquidation and currency reserve in nearly 200 countries and regions around the world. The author also has an article to demonstrate this point.
Once the primary "world yuan" is on the right track, it is similar to the previous task of creating Asian yuan, which echoes each other at different levels and complements each other.