After the closing of 65438+ 10/3, Dongfeng Motor Group (HK:00489), the "second child" of the six state-owned automobile groups, finally released the production and sales express train of19+February. Data show that Dongfeng Motor Group produced a total of 2.937 million vehicles last year, down 4.32% year-on-year; The cumulative sales volume of automobiles was 2.932 million, down 3.94% year-on-year.

Although it ranks second in the group, the advantage of the whole Dongfeng Motor Company in leading the overall sales of FAW Group has been reduced from about 465,438+00,000 vehicles in 2065,438+08 to 654,380+05,000 vehicles in 2065,438+09.

In 20 16, Dongfeng motor group finally broke through the sales mark of 3 million vehicles, but failed to maintain it. After reaching 3.28 million vehicles in 20 17, it began to decline. After 20 18 dropped to 3.05 million vehicles, 20 19 missed 3 million vehicles by 70,000 vehicles.

At the close of 65438+ 10/4, Dongfeng Group (HK:00489) closed at HK$ 7. 18 per share, down 1.37%.

Focus of attention:

As a typical representative enterprise of China automobile industry, it is also the enterprise with the largest number of joint ventures. In 20 18, Dongfeng Motor Group experienced the first decline in sales in the past six years. In 20 19, the group's sales continued to show a downward trend; The year 2020 has already begun. What kind of sales volume and performance will the group have this year?

In 20 19, the news that FCA and PSA established the fourth largest automobile group in the world became a hot event in the circle. Dongfeng Motor Group, which is involved, will reduce its shareholding in PSA, and its joint venture with PSA, namely Shenlong Automobile Company, will also introduce new brands ds except Peugeot and Citroen. Can this change the current embarrassing living environment of Dongfeng Motor Group's legal car sector?

Although relying on Japanese cars with a "solid foundation", the sales data of the Group will not be too ugly, but the legal and independent business departments still need to stop losses as soon as possible.

K-line analysis:

Next, K-line will analyze the sales situation of Dongfeng Motor Group in 20 19 years, and make a simple explanation of the development of the Group in 2020.

First, the recession is irreversible.

20 19 In the last month, Dongfeng Motor Group sold 285,400 vehicles, down 7.4% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter. However, its sales in the last two months of last year exceeded 280,000 vehicles, an increase of nearly 9% compared with September, and its impulse performance was obvious at the end of the year.

Last year, the cumulative sales volume of Dongfeng Motor Group was 2.93 million vehicles, down nearly 4% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of passenger cars was 2.464 million, down 5.67% year-on-year; The cumulative sales of commercial vehicles was 468,000, up 6.3% year-on-year, and the phenomenon of "business is stronger than weakness" was obvious.

Second, Dongfeng Nissan overdraws and Qichen is marginalized.

As the absolute sales pillar of Dongfeng Motor Group, the limited sales volume of Dongfeng Motor Group in February last year was159,000 vehicles, down 5.67% year-on-year and up 6.5% month-on-month, and its month-on-month growth rate was as high as 9%, showing the year-end impulse. Its sales volume in 65438+February is also the highest in a single month of the year.

Last year, the limited sales volume of Dongfeng reached 6.5438+0.536 million vehicles, which was a steady trend, with a slight decrease of 0.68% year-on-year, and 90% of the sales target of 654.38+0.7/kloc-0.000 million vehicles was achieved.

Among them, the cumulative sales of Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Ying finidi and joint-stock companies increased year-on-year, while Dongfeng Qichen and Zhengzhou Nissan decreased year-on-year.

Dongfeng limited plays the role of Dongfeng Nissan. In 20 19, the sales volume1159,000 vehicles increased slightly by 0.27% year-on-year, achieving 97% of the annual sales target. According to the data of monthly production and marketing express, its sales in June 5438+065438+ 10 and February both exceeded 1 1 10,000 vehicles, which also reached the highest level in the whole year.

Meanwhile, according to the official news of Dongfeng Limited, Dongfeng Nissan sold 1 17000 vehicles (including imported cars) in 20 19, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Among them, the overall sales volume of Dongfeng Nissan SUV models for the whole year was 476,000 units, up by 4.4% year-on-year, and the terminal sales volume of Qi Jun, the main model, was 2,654.38+0.3 million units, up by 3.9% year-on-year; At the end of the year, hackers sold 654.38+082 million vehicles, up 9.9% year-on-year. In the Dongfeng Nissan sedan segment, the sales volume of Xuanyi combined terminal reached 466,000 units, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year; Tiida terminal sold 75,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22%; The seventh-generation Tianzhu terminal sold 86,600 vehicles.

Dongfeng Qichen, a joint-venture independent brand in dongfeng shares, sold 1 18000 vehicles last year, down by 10.85% year-on-year, and only achieved 79% of the annual sales target of 15000 vehicles.

According to the official news of Dongfeng Qichen, its terminal sales in 20 19 were123,000 vehicles. Among them, Qichen D60 terminal sold 7.2 vehicles, up 18. 1% year-on-year. The cumulative annual sales volume of Dongfeng Qichen SUV models (including T60, T70 and T90) is 44,000. In the second half of 20 19, Dongfeng Qichen mainly focused on the field of pure electric vehicles, and successively launched three pure electric vehicles: D60EV, e30 and T60EV.

Qichen brand, which was spun off from Dongfeng Nissan, was in an embarrassing situation after entering the independent system of Dongfeng University, and its "pseudo-independence" origin has been criticized by the industry.

In the field of fuel vehicles, Dongfeng Qichen faces the risk of being marginalized by the market due to the serious homogenization of products and Dongfeng Nissan and the lack of technological leadership. In the field of new energy, it can be regarded as "getting up early and catching up late". Neither the morning breeze before nor the D60EV and e30 now seem to have become the mainstream of the market.

Finidi, a high-end brand of Dongfeng Motor Group, sold 35,000 vehicles in 2065,438+09, a year-on-year increase of 265,438+0.36%, which is the most dazzling increase of the whole group. But objectively speaking, on the one hand, because the brand's sales base is low, it is prone to large fluctuations; On the other hand, compared with Lexus or Volvo of the same level, the sales volume of one in China exceeded 200,000 last year, and the other has reached 1.5 million. Therefore, Britain and finidi are still "blocked and long".

Third, out of the shadow of the "engine oil door", Dongfeng Honda will carry a heavy load.

Dongfeng Honda, another Japanese brand under the Group, sold 800,000 vehicles last year, up 65,438+065,438+0.02% year-on-year. Judging from the monthly sales last year, Dongfeng Honda experienced a year-on-year decline in only three months, and maintained a year-on-year growth in the rest months. Therefore, the overall sales volume of 20 19 is obviously better than that of 20 18, and the adverse effects of the "oil valve" incident have been overcome.

Dongfeng Honda's main models Civic, CR-V and XR-V sold more than 220,000 vehicles, 200,000 vehicles and 65,438+10,000 vehicles respectively last year, and its first pure electric vehicle X-NV was listed at the end of last year 10.

According to the data of Honda China, in 20 19, the terminal sales of Honda brand in China market reached1554,000, a record high, of which Dongfeng Honda contributed 788,900 vehicles, up 13.2% year-on-year.

According to Honda's official plan, in 2020, Dongfeng Honda will launch a brand-new UR-V, a mid-term modified CR-V and a five-door hatchback Civic. At the same time, plug-in hybrid system SPORT? Half-breed? E+ will also be introduced into China market and will be the first to be installed on CR-V vehicles.

However, it is worth noting that with the gradual efforts of Guangqi Honda Hao Ying after listing, Dongfeng Honda CR-V market share may be affected to some extent; In addition, the market performance of Dongfeng Honda's high-end model INSPIRE has not improved significantly.

Dongfeng Renault will be the first joint venture company to file for bankruptcy?

The cumulative sales volume of legitimate brand Dongfeng Renault in 20 19 years was only18,600 vehicles, a sharp drop of 63% year-on-year. The annual sales even lost to the monthly sales of some single brands and models, which is inevitable.

As can be seen from the K-line chart of sales volume, the monthly sales volume of Dongfeng Renault was almost halved compared with 20 18 before last year. Although sales in the last two months of this year increased significantly year-on-year, it still didn't help.

"Renault is not a luxury brand first, nor is it a mass-produced brand that can be seen all over the street, nor is it a low-priced brand. In my understanding, Renault brand is a niche, personalized and high-value brand. " Ge Wenshu, who joined the Renault brand in April last year and served as the president of Dongfeng Renault, expressed his position on Renault.

In recent years, Dongfeng Renault has a single product, and only two domestic models, Kolejia and Koleos, are on sale. As the first model of Dongfeng Renault's "Re-starting", since its listing in June 2008+00, although the starting price is less than 654.38+million, it has not attracted enough consumers to open their hearts to Renault, including the Renault Enoch (listed in September) of about 70,000 yuan.

In fact, the Renault brand has a good reputation and sales in the European market, but it is gradually losing in the China market.

Che K believes that brands can actually spread brand cultural values through sports events, such as F 1, Le Mans. After all, Renault is a century-old brand with a story to tell, and there is no shortage of technology, which may improve China consumers' cognition and goodwill towards Renault brand; In addition, new energy vehicles are also a good entry point for Renault. The most important thing is to know what consumers really want.

In terms of product planning, Renault plans to launch a domestic car one year and import an imported car one year, so as to ensure that there is a main model (three 1 strategy) in each important market segment, and implement measures such as "sales of 1 1 models in 2022" and "full electrification in 2025". A richer product matrix and power and energy path will help improve the brand status. Ghosn's absence and failure to reach a strategic cooperation with FCA may put Renault into a more passive development situation.

5. The effect of "broken arm for survival" of Shenlong Automobile remains to be seen.

In 20 19, he was my brother from Dongfeng Renault. The cumulative sales volume of Shenlong Automobile was113,600 vehicles, down 55 17% year-on-year, and 48.3% of the sales target of 235,000 vehicles was achieved, which is quite ironic.

Last year, the monthly sales of DPCA dropped sharply year-on-year, with a year-on-year drop of 62% in June 5438+February. The total sales volume of Dongfeng Peugeot and Dongfeng Citroen brands is only 5,000.

From the peak of 705,000 vehicles in 2065,438+05 to 235,000 vehicles last year, the sales volume dropped by nearly 70% in four years. Perhaps it is not an exaggeration to describe Shenlong Automobile with "loss all the way". As one of the earliest joint venture automobile enterprises in China, the glorious history of Shenlong Automobile may only be used for aftertaste.

In September last year, news of large-scale layoffs, the sale of factory equipment and the sale of land for self-help leaked out. At present, it seems that the prospect of its "broken arm survival" is not clear. For the arrogant French cars, if we still face China consumers with a condescending attitude, instead of lowering our heads and carefully studying the market to improve product quality and service, it will be futile to launch more products.

Sixth, it is too early to be a high-end brand without foundation.

In 20 19, the cumulative sales volume of Dongfeng passenger cars, the home base of Dongfeng Motor Group's own brand, was 77,000 units, down 65,438+09% year-on-year, and 64% of the annual sales target of 654,380+020 units was achieved.

It can be intuitively seen from the K-line chart of sales below that in the last three months of last year, Dongfeng passenger cars concentrated on sprinting sales, and the sales volume in the fourth quarter reached 30,000, up 30% year-on-year, almost equal to the sum of sales in the first nine months.

According to official data, the cumulative sales volume of Dongfeng Shen Feng 20 19 was 75,000 units, up 8.5% year-on-year, of which the sales volume of Fengshen Yi Xuan was 2065,438+088,500 units in the four months after listing; Fengshen AX7 series has sold 35,700 vehicles.

Or inspired by this, the sales target of Dongfeng Shen Feng in 2020 is set at 6,543,800+vehicles, up 33% year-on-year, and three new models will be launched, with a mid-term change of 654.38+ 0 and two annual changes.

Although this growth rate is much higher than the industry expectation, it is lower than its sales targets of 20 19 and120,000 vehicles. The situation is good and the goal is falling. Is Dongfeng passenger car going to abandon the style of "empty slogan" for many years?

At the same time, Dongfeng Motor will launch a high-end brand this year and set up the H division, which really makes people have no bottom. After all, it is different from FAW Hongqi in its profound background and feelings. If a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources are invested, it is likely that the bamboo basket will draw water with a sieve in the end. Isn't the lesson of Dongfeng A9 enough?

In 20 19, Dongfeng Motor Company sold 3.609 million vehicles in the whole year. According to Dongfeng Company's 2020 work conference on June 16, its sales target in 2020 is 3.75 million vehicles, up 4% year-on-year, and the company's planned total profit and operating cash flow are not less than 40 billion yuan.

Big waves wash sand, and gold sinks.

According to china automobile dealers association's forecast, the auto market may not improve until the end of 2020, so many auto companies still have to undergo tempering and testing this year. Whether it's a large state-owned automobile group, a private automobile enterprise or a young new car-making force, who can stay until the end and become the shining one?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.