Specifically, Gu, vice president of Qingdao Automobile Research Institute of Jilin University, wrote in the WeChat circle of friends: "Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., the world's earliest mass-produced sodium battery, has the best price, 30% cheaper than lithium ferrous phosphate, and analysts have ordered hundreds of millions of pieces." He also quoted a screenshot showing that according to the relevant research report released by Guotai Junan Securities in March this year, the battery cost of sodium ion is 30% lower than that of the current mainstream lithium iron phosphate battery.
Then, the content of this circle of friends was forwarded by people from all walks of life in the industry. Among them, "the cost of sodium battery is 30% cheaper" seems to be the main difference between advantages and disadvantages.
It is worth noting that today's sodium ion battery plate has strengthened significantly, with multiple daily limit. At the close, Huasheng Lithium Battery rose by nearly17%; Peng Hui's energy rose by more than12%; Tongxing Environmental Protection, Fengshan Group, Polyfluoride and Chuanyi Technology 10% daily limit.
In this regard, the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily found that the root of the differences between the parties may lie in the inconsistency in the definition of "cost": "30% cheaper than lithium batteries" is more calculated from the perspective of material cost, while the opposing party focuses on the comprehensive cost of the final product.
Behind this, it also reflects the market's two completely different perspectives on new technologies-some people see the immediate difficulties in a down-to-earth manner, and some people look up at the stars and focus on the future space.
_ Cheap materials ≠ Cheap products
In response to the content of the circle of friends that has aroused great concern today, Gu Xiang, vice president of Qingdao Automobile Research Institute of Jilin University, explained to the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily: "(Sodium electricity) will be cheap in principle, but it will take three to five years to industrialize. We can't simply say that materials are cheap, so things must be cheap and need large-scale production. There are several indicators that are comprehensively measured. "
Recently, Gu Zeng wrote that compared with lithium resources, sodium resources are very rich, so there is no obvious resource constraint for sodium batteries in large-scale application scenarios. Moreover, the theoretical cost of cathode material and current collector material of sodium battery is lower than that of lithium battery, and its initial investment cost is expected to be lower than that of lithium battery after industrialization.
"The market's expectation of sodium batteries largely depends on its theoretical cost advantage. Cost advantages are all relatively generated. At present, the price of lithium carbonate, the key raw material of lithium batteries, is high, which magnifies the cost advantage of sodium batteries. Once the price of lithium carbonate enters the downward channel, the price of lithium batteries will also drop rapidly, invisibly obliterating the advantages of sodium batteries. " Gu said.
Looking back at the controversial screenshots mentioned by Gu's circle of friends, combined with the release time and content, the screenshot content may point to a report entitled "Series Report on Sodium Ion Batteries (I): Sodium Ion Batteries Ready to Go" published by Guotai Junan on March 18 this year, which pointed out that the price of lithium resources continues to rise, and sodium ion batteries have the conditions of low price and stable price:
According to the research of Zhongke Haina team, the raw material cost of copper-based sodium ion battery is 0.29 yuan /Wh, the material cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is 0.43 yuan /Wh, and the cost of lead-acid battery is 0.40 yuan /Wh. Sodium ion battery material has obvious cost advantage, which is about 1/3 lower than lithium iron phosphate battery.
In this report, Guotai Junan indicated that the cost data came from Sinochem Sodium.
Hu Yongsheng, the founder of Zhongke Haina, also told the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board that "(Guotai Junan) this data is no problem."
It is worth noting that Zhongke Haina is the data source of many institutions when comparing the costs of sodium ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. For example, the report of China Everbright Securities 165438+16 and the report of China Post Securities 65438+124 October, among which the forecast data given by the latter is more "radical": it is estimated that the cost of sodium ion batteries can be reduced to 0.5-0.6 yuan/kWh after mass production.
At the same time, the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board interviewed a number of enterprises related to the sodium ion battery industry. Among them, a person related to the sodium ion battery industry chain told the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that "(Guotai Junan's research data) is definitely reliable, and (cost data) should be lower."
Relevant persons further explained from the perspective of BOM(BillofMaterial) that the BOM cost of five main materials (positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, electrolyte and current collector) of sodium ion battery can be reduced. "The anode is expected to drop by 80% and the cathode by 50%. Although the manufacturing cost may be higher, it is not a big problem to reduce the overall 30%. This conclusion can be drawn after mass production. It is expected that the cost of sodium ion batteries will be fully reduced in the second half of next year. "
Everbright Securities reported in June 165438+1October16 that the anode and cathode materials and current collectors of sodium ion batteries have a large cost reduction space, while the electrolyte and separator are similar to lithium ion batteries, so there is a certain cost reduction space.
Looking closely at the cost estimates given by relevant enterprises and institutional analysts, the data base basically comes from the breakdown of detailed materials. However, some insiders reminded that cheap BOM does not mean cheap products-
Chu Pan, director of the Energy Storage Technology Center of Guangdong Electric Power Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., China Energy Construction Group, said in a circle of friends:
The first thing to clarify is that Guotai Junan pointed out in a previous research report that sodium ion batteries can theoretically be disassembled from the perspective of BOM, which can be cheaper than lithium batteries (about 30%). There is no problem with this conclusion, and it is also valid in theory. This is also the common sense of everyone in the sodium ion battery industry. But for some hype people, you can't think that "sodium ion battery products" are 30% cheaper than "lithium ion battery products", which requires the continuous improvement of the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain and the continuous expansion of scale advantages. This is a long process.
The reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board newspaper noted that the above views have been recognized by many industry analysts. Among them, a senior analyst in the field of power batteries told the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board that "the sodium ion battery has not been really commercialized at present, and the cost of disassembly from the perspective of BOM cannot be equal to the cost from the perspective of application products."