"Double opposition" can't save the country's photovoltaic industry. This cognition has been well proved in Europe (especially Germany) and the United States. However, this time, India is still "bent on its own way" to promote the safeguard measures of photovoltaic modules. The first view is that this is to protect India's own photovoltaic industry and is a government action based on business; The second view is that this is an outpost of Modi's government's failure to complete the scheduled photovoltaic target, leaving room for its failure to complete the scheduled photovoltaic power station construction target in the future.
The reason for supporting the first view is that the proposal of levying defense tax was put forward by Indian Photovoltaic Manufacturers Association (ISMA) on February 5, 20 17. ISMA represents five Indian photovoltaic manufacturers: Mondra Solar Photovoltaic Company, Indian Solar Company, Jupiter Solar Power Company, Websol Energy Systems Company and Helios Photovoltaic Company. The total number of photovoltaic cells produced by these five companies accounts for more than 50% of India's total output.
Nevertheless, the production situation of these five enterprises is not optimistic. According to the relevant data released by the General Administration of Safeguards of India, from 20 14 to 20 15, the market share of domestic photovoltaic industry in India was 14%, while from 20 17 to 20 18, it decreased to18. The data of related industries in India also confirmed that the installed capacity of solar cells in India is about 1386 MW. As far as the overall solar power generation capacity is concerned, more than 75% depends on batteries made in China, 15% depends on American products, and the rest depends on domestic products. In other words, the above five companies only account for 5% of the Indian market.
From this point of view, Indian PV manufacturers have indeed reached the point where they have to "last fight", and it is natural to apply for "national protection" and get protection.
However, those who support the second view believe that things are not that simple. The precedent in Europe and America proves that India may "save" India's photovoltaic manufacturing industry in a short time, whether it is "double opposition" or imposing defensive tariffs, but it is not good for the Indian government's new energy development goals and ordinary consumers, especially for Indian Prime Minister Modi's goal of building 100 GW photovoltaic power station in 2020 (now adjusted to 2022).
According to a survey by consulting firm Bridge to India, Modi's slogan lacks implementation conditions in India, and the most optimistic situation is that 70 GW can be installed in 2020. In fact, the data show that the installed solar energy capacity in India was 2.9 GW in fiscal year 20 15 and 5.8 GW in fiscal year 20 16. If we want to achieve the goal of 100 GW, the installed capacity needs to increase by more than 16 times. This is simply "unbearable" for India's too weak transmission infrastructure.
But maybe this is exactly what Modi's government wants. Because this move can serve as Modi's "fig leaf", judging from the current construction progress of photovoltaic power plants in India, it is not as simple as shouting slogans to implement construction conditions. In particular, the imposition of defensive tariffs will reduce imports, but domestic production capacity is not enough to meet the installed capacity. The consequences of demand will make it difficult for Modi's government to achieve its photovoltaic goals. This has also become a natural excuse: "The original goal can be achieved, but the production capacity can't keep up, and there is no way."
The holder of this view believes that the most direct evidence is that American products with a market share of 15% are not within the scope of defense tax collection.
Whether these two views are right or wrong, no one can make a correct judgment before the dust settles, but it is undeniable that the 70% defensive tariff imposed as a temporary safeguard measure, once implemented, will not only cause huge losses to the photovoltaic industry in China and Malaysia, but also be detrimental to the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry in India.