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70% of family pig farms were eliminated, and many pig enterprises closed down. Who became the biggest winner? Can you still raise pigs?
Although less than five months have passed this year, many pig enterprises have suffered huge losses or closed down, and those small and medium-sized retail investors have also withdrawn from the aquaculture industry.

As the giants of the pig industry, Wen's, New Hope and Zhengbang are still unable to get rid of the fate of losses, and those enterprises that have only invested in the pig industry in recent years have suffered losses.

Besides, as the "king of pigs" in the pig industry, Muyuan, although profitable last year, is not optimistic this year.

According to the briefing in March, the cost of raising pigs in Mu Yuan is 16 yuan/kg, and the selling price of pigs is 1 1.67 yuan/kg.

Judging from the slaughter of 200 Jin pigs, a pig will lose 433 yuan.

Therefore, Mu Yuan will slaughter 5.986 million pigs in March, with a loss of 2.59 billion yuan.

In the first quarter, the total sales volume was13810.7 million, and the estimated loss was 5-5.5 billion yuan.

So, why are these pig giants so fragile? In fact, since the non-plague attack in 18, the pig industry has suffered a wave of heavy losses, resulting in a large number of pig farmers being eliminated. Because of the tight supply of pigs, the price of pigs has soared to the high price of 20 yuan/Jin.

In this way, countless people have been attracted to enter the pig industry. With the favorable policies of the country and the amazing profits of raising pigs, both retail investors and big capital began to make up for the increase, and big capital seized the vacant market.

After the resumption of production in 2020 and 20021year, the pig production capacity recovered as scheduled, and even there was overcapacity.

Many capitals think that the pig industry is lying down to make money, but they don't know that the risk is huge.

Since 20021year, pig prices began to decline, and pig enterprises fell into deep losses after the second half of the year.

The cost of ordinary free-range households is around 7 yuan, but the cost of raising pigs is as high as 10- 12 yuan/kg for a long time.

This phenomenon is also caused by the high operating costs of pig enterprises. The salary of the pig industry generally starts at 654.38+ 10,000 yuan, making this industry a hot potato.

However, with the continuous decline in pig prices, the cost of employing people has become one of the main reasons for the huge losses.

Coupled with the soaring feed and the high cost of veterinary drugs and piglets, the cost of pig enterprises has slowed down and losses are inevitable.

In addition to the collapse of many pig enterprises, small and medium-sized farmers have also suffered a wave of looting.

It can be seen from the statistical data of rural areas in Guangdong that since the outbreak of non-plague, the number of pig farms with less than 500 has decreased from 520,000 to1.5,000, which means that 70% of family pig farms have been eliminated.

Before the outbreak, the proportion of family pig farms accounted for more than 70% of the pig industry, and it was difficult for large pig enterprises to grasp the right to speak.

However, after a non-plague, the ability of small and medium-sized retail investors to cope with risks is too poor, and as a result, they are eliminated and it is difficult to make a comeback.

In addition, in 20021year, feed rose sharply, pig prices plummeted, and the pig industry fell into long-term losses. It is difficult for small and medium-sized retail investors to persist for too long, and naturally a large number of them have been eliminated.

02. Who is the biggest winner?

For retail investors, it is unbearable to lose hundreds of thousands. For large pig enterprises, it is unbearable to lose tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. But for the four giants of Muyuan, New Hope, Wen's and Zhengbang, the loss of tens of billions is "unimportant".

When the pig industry is in a weak state, the news of transfer, sale and bankruptcy spreads everywhere, and leading pig enterprises begin to "compete for the market". Since last year, they have been desperately fighting for the market and adopted the strategy of "losing money to win the market", which is still the policy this year.

For example, Mu Yuan proposed that this year's slaughter task should be at least 50,238,750 heads; The slaughter target of Wen is1800-20 million; New Hope1.300-1.800 million, Tianbang 6 million and Tang Renshen 2 million. The goal of these five giants is more than 92 million, an increase of more than 23 million over last year.

It can be said that in this pig cycle, these five leading pig enterprises have always been the biggest winners and have greater voice in the market.

And since April, the pig price has started to rise, which means that a new round of "pig cycle" is coming, and March is the last "low point" of the last round of pig cycle.

It is expected that with the acceleration of the pace of de-capacity of small and medium-sized pig enterprises and free-range households, the price of pigs will rise in the second half of the year, and leading pig enterprises with huge pigs will begin to harvest "wealth" to make up for the losses in the past year.

Since June 5438+ 10 last year, the stock of live pigs in the market has been decreasing, but the pig production capacity of these leading pig enterprises is doubling every month, which shows that these pig enterprises have advanced foresight and investment vision. They stared at the pressure of tens of billions of losses and finally eliminated many competitors.

However, it is foreseeable that the pig industry will enter the era of low profit, and the ups and downs are unpredictable.

This means that the entry threshold of the pig industry will only be higher, and the survival crisis of small and medium-sized retail investors will be more. what do you think?