In the three months after last November, domestic and international copper prices plummeted by more than 50%, and this year copper prices quickly recovered all lost ground. This "V"-shaped rise and fall of copper prices is rare in history, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "once in a hundred years". According to the analysis, the positive rescue policies adopted by countries after the economic crisis broke out at the end of last year are the main reasons for the V-shaped reversal of copper prices this year. Of course, the fundamental changes under the bailout policy also played a key supporting role in the rise of copper prices.
1. The rescue policies of various countries and getting rid of the economic bottom are the main reasons for the rise of copper prices.
In the first eight months of 2009, copper prices continued to rise, which was closely related to the active fiscal and monetary policies adopted by various countries.
From the perspective of China, at the end of last year, when the economy was in crisis, the state urgently added10 billion investment, and at the same time launched a 4 trillion investment plan for 2009-20 10, and launched ten industrial policies in February this year. Cars and real estate in China were supported by policies such as tax reduction, discount on loans and trade-in of old ones, and began to pick up after March. It is particularly noteworthy that since the beginning of this year, new loans in China have increased substantially. In the first six months, China increased its loans by 7.37 trillion yuan, with an average monthly rate of 1.2 trillion yuan, compared with 300-400 billion yuan in the past month. Last year, China's new loans were only 5 trillion yuan. A large number of new loans have made the domestic money supply abundant. In the first seven months of this year, China's money supply increased by 28.42%, higher than 16.35% in the same period last year. With the slowdown of GDP growth in China this year, the money supply exceeds the actual demand of the market, causing the domestic market to worry about inflation and attracting a large amount of investment demand into the copper market, which has become the main reason for the rise of copper prices.
At the same time, developed countries are also introducing rescue policies one after another. On March 18, the Federal Reserve announced the implementation of quantitative monetary policy, which opened the prelude for investors to enter the commodity market. After the statement at the meeting on March 18, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. At the same time, in order to provide greater support for the mortgage market and the housing market, the Committee decided to expand the size of the Fed's balance sheet by purchasing institutional mortgage-backed securities (MBS) up to 750 billion US dollars, bringing the total amount of such securities purchased this year to 1.25 trillion US dollars; It will also increase the purchase of institutional bonds by up to $654.38 billion this year to $200 billion. In addition, in order to improve the private credit market, the Committee decided to buy as much as $300 billion of long-term government bonds in the next six months. This statement shows that the United States began to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, that is, injecting a large amount of cash into the social and financial system and forcibly injecting liquidity into the financial market and circulation field. Not only the United States, but also other countries are adopting quantitative monetary policy. For example, in March 1 1, the Bank of England officially announced the asset purchase plan of125 billion pounds; On May 7, the European Central Bank announced that it planned to purchase asset-backed bonds totaling 60 billion euros, and on June 24, it adopted a one-year refinancing operation with a scale of 442.2 billion euros, which was the largest capital injection in history. Under the background of central banks printing bank notes in succession, the global money supply has greatly increased, in which the M2 of the United States has increased by more than 8%, while its normal growth rate is below 6%, and Japan has also increased by more than 6%, while its M2 was negative in the past. With the slowdown of global economic growth this year, the money supply is increasing, and the market is worried that the increase of money multiplier will trigger inflation during the recovery. Under this expectation, investment funds have entered the financial and commodity markets one after another, which has provided impetus for the continuous upward trend of copper prices.
In addition to the quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the signs of bottoming out in the global economy have also led to an increase in investment risk appetite, and funds have shifted from dollar assets to commodity markets to support copper prices. Data since March show that the worst period of the global economy may have passed. The manufacturing index, which is the most sensitive to the economy in all countries, has turned around this year. After the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered the global economic crisis at the end of last year, PMI data of various countries fell sharply. However, after February this year, the PMI data of various countries generally turned around, and China's PMI returned to above 50, entering expansion. Good PMI shows that the worst period of manufacturing industry has passed, which supports copper consumption. Not only that, European consumer confidence index began to turn around and pick up, and American real estate also showed signs of ending. All kinds of data show that the worst period in the world has passed, the risk appetite of investment has begun to increase, and funds have shifted from dollar assets to commodity markets to support copper prices.
China's new monthly loans.
Money supply in major countries
Variety superimposed dollar
PMI of major countries in the world
2. China's record copper imports are the second main reason for the increase in copper prices.
In the first half of 2009, the focus of refined copper market focused on copper imports from China. Historically, the average annual import volume of refined copper in China in recent ten years is about 6.5438+0.0000 tons, and the monthly import volume is mostly below 6.5438+0.00000 tons. The import volume of 200,000 tons only appeared once in March 2007. However, in 2009, the monthly import volume of refined copper in China continuously broke the historical record. 5438+ 10, due to the Spring Festival, the import volume was 6.5438+0.8 million tons, 270,000 tons in February, 297,000 tons in March and 320,000 tons in April. Imports increased by 337,000 tons in May and set a record of 378,900 tons in June. In the first six months, the import volume of refined copper in China reached 6.5438+0.7824 million tons. In 2008, the consumption of refined copper in China was 4.66 million tons, and the import volume was 6.5438+0.05 million tons. Based on the import growth in the first six months only, the consumption of refined copper in China will increase by 40%. In terms of apparent consumption, the consumption of refined copper in China increased by 52.69% in the first six months. China's refined copper consumption accounts for 1/4 of the world, that is, if China's refined copper consumption increases by 40%, the global refined copper consumption will increase by 10%. Such strong consumption triggered the market's expectation of China's economic improvement, which supported the sharp rise of copper prices.
Since March this year, driven by China's policy, the economy has started to improve, and the operating rate of copper processing industry has also started to pick up. However, from the domestic economic growth and industry situation in, the consumption of copper in China is not convincing. From the analysis, the main reason for the increase of copper imports in China is that the supply of waste copper in China has been greatly reduced, and refined copper consumption has replaced waste copper consumption. In addition, the storage and storage of copper by the State Reserve also increased the import of copper from China. Of course, investment demand also plays a major role. Judging from the situation in 2009, the output and import of copper mines maintained a small increase, but the import of scrap copper changed greatly. In the first seven months of this year, China's copper scrap imports were 2186,400 tons, down 36 14% year-on-year. If the copper scrap is 30%, the amount of metal will be reduced by 370,000 tons. The reduction of waste copper supply leads to the consumption of refined copper by refined copper raw materials and downstream enterprises. Apart from the shortage of domestic copper supply caused by the halving of scrap copper imports, the storage and storage of copper by the State Reserve is also the main reason for the sharp increase of copper imports in China. Later, the State Reserve Bureau indicated that it would collect and store 235,000 tons of copper.
Under the tight supply situation, domestic copper prices began to rise, but the international market was not well affected by the financial crisis, which led to an increase in copper ratio at home and abroad and a substantial increase in import profits. In April, the profit of spot import once reached 6000 yuan, and the profit of copper import in three months also reached 2000 yuan. The favorable proportion has attracted a lot of trade buying, increased the import of copper from China, and thus changed the situation of global copper surplus, which can be clearly seen from the change of LME copper inventory. In the first two months of this year, LME copper stocks continued to increase. As of February 25th, LME copper stocks had risen from 337,000 tons at the end of last year to 548,000 tons, but then declined rapidly. By June 24th, the inventory had dropped to 275,000 tons. It is particularly worth mentioning that the initial reduction of LME inventory mainly occurred in Asian inventory. The inventory in Busan was 50,000 tons at the beginning of the year, but it began to decline from the end of February to June. After Asian copper stocks were digested, LME stocks in Europe and America began to decline. Due to the strong import from China, during this period, the premium of copper trade in China once reached $ 250-300, which was unprecedented in history and more than doubled the normal level. The strong import of refined copper from China led to a sharp drop in LME copper stocks, which made the international copper price follow the domestic copper price.
Situation of scrap copper and refined copper in China in 2009
Copper spot in March and April and copper profit chart in March
Large imports from China led to the reduction of LME copper stocks.
Asian LME inventory
China spot premium and trade premium.
Second, the fourth quarter copper market forecast
In September 2009, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated at a high level, and the market avoided two major policy risks. One is the time for countries to shrink liquidity, and the other is the CFTC hearing in the United States to discuss restricting speculative funds from entering the commodity market. On September 4-5, these two problems were solved one after another. On the issue of liquidity, at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, everyone reached a consensus that we should continue to implement economic stimulus at present, but we need to consider the timing of withdrawal. In addition, the CFTC hearing also reached a conclusion that the detailed investor position report began to be implemented. But as far as its content is concerned, commercial positions are only divided into two categories, one is producers/processors/traders/consumers, and the other is swap dealers. The positions of swap dealers are still unrestricted, because swap dealers are mostly hedged by big banks, which actually only increases the transparency of reports, and there is no substantial progress. We can see that after the release of these two policy risks, both the copper market and the crude oil market performed well on September 8, but disappointingly, the copper market and crude oil failed to continue to rise in the following days. On the contrary, when the exchange rate of the US dollar fell sharply, the copper market unexpectedly began to fall back, and all the rules in the operation of the copper market failed here this year, which surprised all investors.
Copper reacted weakly to the fall of the dollar.
1. The copper market is under pressure, and the main reasons are the excess of fundamentals and the return of liquidity.
The analysis shows that the weak performance of the copper market is closely related to the changes in the main reasons for the rise of copper prices in the first three quarters of this year.
From a fundamental point of view, concerns about the surplus of copper fundamentals and weak demand began to appear.
This year's rise in copper prices has much to do with China's copper imports, but at present, China's copper imports are decreasing. According to the latest data, China's copper import volume in August has dropped to 2 1.97 million tons, which is still up by 1.52% year-on-year, but it has dropped sharply for the second consecutive month, down more than 70,000 tons from July's 292,200 tons. In addition, copper in China bonded warehouse is flowing back to LME. In September, LME copper inventory has reached 327,700 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared with the low of 257,200 tons in mid-July. Moreover, while China's copper imports are decreasing, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper stocks are increasing substantially. By mid-September, Shanghai's copper inventory had exceeded 654.38+10,000 tons, reaching1040,000 tons, which made people suspect that China's hidden inventory was turning into explicit inventory. According to the import volume in the first eight months of this year and the calculation of Antaike, the inventory in China may exceed 6,543,800 tons this year. Judging from China government's continuous proposal of maintaining growth and restructuring, as well as all domestic aluminum, zinc, steel and chemical products, the framework of copper surplus is becoming more and more obvious, which undoubtedly brings pressure to the market. According to CRU statistics, the global economic surplus in the first three quarters of this year will be 828,000 tons.
From the perspective of liquidity, central banks put the withdrawal of liquidity on the agenda, which put pressure on the market.
There is a serious surplus of global copper fundamentals.
China's refined copper growth slows down.
Shanghai copper stocks rise
The decrease in imports from China led to an increase in LME stocks.
The main reason for the increase in copper prices this year is that countries have implemented proactive fiscal and monetary policies, and concerns about inflation have attracted a lot of investment demand. However, at present, the global economy has begun to recover, and the market is increasingly worried that this year's unconventional measures will trigger inflation. Governments, central banks and international financial organizations have been discussing this issue since August. Although it is generally believed that it is still too early to withdraw liquidity, the agenda of withdrawing liquidity has been put on the agenda. The reason why the global economy can quickly get rid of the once-in-a-century economic crisis this year lies in the policies of various countries and the unconventional fiscal and monetary policies of central banks. At present, the driving force of growth in various countries mainly comes from government investment and bailout policies. Before consumption and private investment start, if liquidity is withdrawn in advance, it is likely to lead to the global economy falling into recession again, as happened during the Great Depression in 29 years. Therefore, the follow-up policies of various countries and the withdrawal of liquidity by central banks have become the biggest uncertainties in the market. In this context, there is no doubt that the risk of speculation is increasing. This will put pressure on the recent investment demand.
2. The trend of economic recovery has not changed, and the copper market still has support.
The market has great differences on the general trend of copper, but we believe that the global economic recovery at the end of this year is still the background, which supports the copper price.
The economic crisis mainly broke out in the United States, and Europe also fell into recession because of excessive trust in buying subprime products for export to the United States. From the first quarter, the GDP of the United States dropped by 6.4%, that of Europe by 4.55% and that of Japan by 15.2%, all the highest in 20 years. However, in the second quarter, the economies of these developed countries also showed signs of bottoming out, especially in the United States. The latest data shows that its GDP in the second quarter only decreased by 1%, which is better than the market expectation of-1.5%, indicating that the decline rate of the US economy in the second quarter has greatly slowed down. The Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve at the end of August pointed out that among 12 regional federal reserve banks, 1 1 reported that the economic situation in July and August was stable or improved, indicating that the worst economic recession in the United States in 70 years has ended. Fed officials predict that with the help of fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, US economic activity will resume growth later this year, and this momentum will continue into next year. In early September, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for 2009 and 20 10. It is predicted that the world economy will decrease by 1.3% in 2009 and increase by 2.9% in 20 10. In April this year, the IMF predicted that the global economy would shrink by 1.4% and increase by 2.5% in 20 10. Historically, when the global economy enters recovery, copper prices will remain stable, and when the economy enters growth, copper prices will rise rapidly. In view of the global economic recovery in the fourth quarter, we believe that the overall trend of copper prices will still be supported.
From the perspective of industry, the data released in September showed that the global manufacturing industry has improved. The correlation between manufacturing industry and copper price is the strongest. Historically, the correlation between them is above 65%. We can see that when the economic crisis broke out in May 438+10 last June, the purchasing managers' index line of manufacturing industries in various countries plummeted, with the lowest PMI in Europe, America and Japan reaching 32.4, 33.6 and 29.6 at the end of last year and the beginning of this year respectively, far below the dividing line of growth and recession of 50, which shows the severity of manufacturing recession in these developed countries. However, from this year's point of view, after experiencing a low shock in the first quarter, the PMI of these countries began to turn around in the second quarter. In August, the United States returned to 52.9, Europe returned to 48.2 and China returned to 54. These data show that the manufacturing industries in various countries have recovered to the level before the economic crisis broke out last year, and even increased or approached growth. The global PMI returned to 50, and the entire manufacturing industry entered a recovery. Not only that, the latest data shows that American real estate also shows signs of bottoming out. Among them, the sales of new homes in the United States reached 433,000 sets in July, which was the fourth consecutive month of month-on-month increase, and the year-on-year decline also narrowed to 13.4%. At the same time, the starting rate of new houses in the United States stabilized at 586,5438+0,000 units in July. Automobile sales reached 6.5438+0.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0%.
Historically, the rebound of copper prices is mainly in the process of economic recovery. In the context of the global economic recovery in the fourth quarter of this year, copper prices will still encounter support.
The GDP growth rate of major countries and economies in the world has slowed down.
PMI of major countries in the world
American real estate
Global automobile sales
3. Forecast for the fourth quarter: The policy market is still going on, and the key support level of the copper market will guide the direction.
In fact, this year's copper market has a strong consistency with the trend of the whole commodity market and even the financial market. From a systematic point of view, the policies of various countries are at work, which we can call the policy market. Therefore, the policy orientation of countries in the future will still determine the direction of copper market and even the whole commodity and financial market. After the once-in-a-century economic crisis broke out last year, countries actively rescued the market. Although the global economic recession has been successfully avoided, the deep-seated economic problems have not been solved. Just like "maintaining growth and restructuring", they cannot be completed in a short time. In fact, this is not only the slogan put forward by the China administration, but also the balance that the global economy is seeking. At the end of September, the G20 summit will adjust the global economic policy, but like maintaining growth and restructuring, it is difficult to solve this problem at the same time in a short time. The way governments withdraw liquidity will directly determine the future direction of the global economy and financial and commodity markets.
/bin/new/searchkey.asp
On the one hand, the global economy is recovering, on the other hand, the risk of excess fundamentals and liquidity withdrawal is increasing, and it is increasingly difficult to find a clear direction for investment funds, which is also the main reason for the lack of clear direction for high-level market shocks before the Eleventh National Congress. Since the copper price has returned to the price before last November, the surrounding market is weak, crude oil is weak, and agricultural products have fallen sharply, all of which have put pressure on the copper market. Before November, the copper price was obviously weak. "Confidence is more expensive than gold", this sentence is more appropriate for the copper market at this time. We are concerned about the effectiveness of LME copper market supported by $6,000 before the eleventh! The validity of $6,000 will determine the main trend of copper prices in the fourth quarter. If the support is effective, the copper market will still return to the main tone this year and continue to refresh the high point driven by economic recovery. However, if it falls below $6,000, the high point of copper price this year has already appeared in August, and the copper price will wait for the bell of liquidity withdrawal in the atmosphere of shock and decline.