Editor? /Jia ke
Design/design
Jia Ke, the head of Xuanyuan School, remembers that in June 65438+February 65438+June 2022, when the opening ceremony of Lingxuan Phase III was held in Wuhan, everyone was in the first phase of Yangliao. 13 students arrived at the scene, and most of them introduced themselves online. In a word, they completed the seemingly impossible opening ceremony in a daze.
French writer Saint-Exupery wrote: "People with light in their hearts always try to get together."
This is in line with Ling Xuanban's slogan "Light is surrounded by light". Xuanyuan Zhixue Ling Xuan course, with the mission of building the strongest cooperation ecological circle of new automobile technology, aims to improve the immunity and adaptability of new automobile people in the century-old era of great changes in the automobile industry.
On February 25th and 26th, 2023, the third phase of Xuanyuan Zhixue Lingxuan was launched for the first time.
30 elite students from all over the country gathered in Shengrang Automobile System (Changshu) Co., Ltd., where the course was held, to listen to the live lectures from the CEO of the OEM, the heads of procurement and other fields and senior experts in the industry.
Shengrang Industry is a family-owned enterprise founded in 1962 and headquartered in Lyon, France. China Company 20 17 was established in Changshu, Jiangsu Province, with patented casting and forging technology, focusing on lightweight chassis of new energy vehicles.
Xuanyuan Zhixue Lingxuan Phase III 1 Module theme is "New Automobile and Product Strategy".
Opening speech by Zhang Yuzhi, general manager of Shanghai Yuzhi Automobile Consulting Co., Ltd., who has many years of industry experience-looking forward to the passenger car market in China.
Li Hai, vice president of purchasing and logistics for Volvo Cars Asia Pacific, shared how to build a competitive and sustainable high-toughness supply chain with global suppliers under the new competitive situation in the post-epidemic era.
Cheng, chairman, former vice president, chief engineer and president of engineering research institute of Yanghydrogen Group, shared information from three aspects: the general situation of the industry, the new trend of the future automobile society and industry, and the strategy of new car products.
At that time, Li, assistant general manager (now deputy general manager) of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., general manager of Chery Automobile Marketing Company and general manager of Jetway Division, shared the marketing experience of the OEM and how the supply chain can be competitive with the third-phase students.
Zhang Yong, co-founder and CEO of Nezha Automobile, expounded the supply chain strategy and thinking of the new market-oriented track from the aspects of Nezha Automobile's enterprise management, understanding of the new track, and the future thinking of supply chain and procurement.
On the morning of February 25th, Zhang Yu, the instructor of Xuanyuan Zhixue and the general manager of Shanghai Yuzhi Automobile Consulting Co., Ltd., gave an opening speech to the students of Lingxuan Phase III, looking forward to the passenger car market in China.
Judging from the cumulative sales ranking in 2022, according to the driving pattern, six TOP 10 vehicles are new energy vehicles and four are fuel vehicles-even five months ago, BYD Korea was not in the front 10, but it jumped from the top ten in August 2022 to the eighth in February.
"The top five of Nissan Sylphy (third place) and Volkswagen LaVida (fifth place) may be lost at the end of this year. Model 3 continues to leap, and the top five will definitely be new energy vehicles by the end of the year. " Zhang Yu judged, "This is a very cruel phenomenon."
From the perspective of brand countries, independent brands became the only winner last year, regardless of market share or brand ranking.
In 2022, the share of independent brands accounted for 48.4%, up 5.8 points year-on-year, and the share of European, Korean, Japanese, joint venture and American departments all declined.
In the TOP 10 brand ranking, China's own brands occupy 6 seats, namely BYD, Geely, Changan, Chery, Wuling and SAIC, and only 4 seats are reserved for foreign investors-Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and General Motors.
Among the independent brands, BYD, Geely and Changan are the top three in 2022. BYD rose from the seventh place in 202 1 to the first place. The new forces represented by Wei Xiaoli live in the second camp 1 1- 15. They will stabilize the second camp this year and next and push out the fuel trucks.
Zhang Yu believes that car companies with fuel car business, especially luxury cars and BBA, may undergo drastic changes in the next 1-2 years. The reason for the drastic change is that PHEV (plug-in hybrid vehicle) represented by BYD will continue to seize market share.
The reason why BYD stands out is that Zhang Yu analyzed that it has achieved the ultimate cost performance of PHEV technology architecture from Honda, and it has the fastest listing speed in domestic competing products and gained the first opportunity.
Toyota and Honda are pioneers in hybrid architecture. However, these two pioneers have high cost and poor landing effect, and they have been surpassed by domestic rising stars.
Compared with Japanese cars, BYD PHEV has the advantage of "green brand" policy, but its price is lower than that of Japanese HEV 1%- 15%. The price of Japanese PHEV is 70%-80% higher than that of BYD PHEV, and BYD has obvious price advantage.
Zhang Yu judged that the independent PHEV and HEV taking the dual-motor iMMD route have the potential to rapidly erode the market share of foreign mainstream fuel vehicles in the future.
As the largest automobile market and new energy automobile market in the world, China has also been a bright spot in the past two years.
In 2022, China exported 3 1 1. 1 10,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%; The total export volume of new energy vehicles was 679,000, up by 1.20% year-on-year, and half of them were sold to Europe, represented by Tesla and SAIC MG.
Zhang Yu said that China's automobile export potential is very great, especially the industrial chain of pure trams. No country can compare with China's industrial chain. "The cost of our electric car is the lowest in the world."
On the one hand, statistics show that China's new energy vehicles are thriving, with both internal and external repairs. On the other hand, it also exposed the experience and lessons, such as chips, batteries and other key components stuck in the neck and other shortcomings.
There are leading companies such as BYD and Wuling, which have annual sales exceeding one million and are profitable, and there are also local strongmen such as Great Wall and Chery, whose hybrid structures are launched almost at the same time as BYD, but they are still in the process of adjustment.
Zhang Yu believes that the electrification of automobiles in China is still in the development stage.
According to the national electrification development plan, 20 16 -202 1 is the initial stage of electrification. During this period, the three electric technologies made a breakthrough and lowered the threshold for building cars. Wei Xiaoli and other new forces launched a new electric platform to seize the share of electric vehicles, and the pace of traditional car companies NEV was slow.
202 1 -2025 is the development period of electrification. In the past five years, the most ideal scenario is that the price of battery raw materials tends to be stable after experiencing the skyrocketing of 202 1-2022, and returns to normal with the expansion of mine production scale. Lithium iron phosphate batteries will further help reduce battery costs, and new forces will have the opportunity to quickly achieve balance of payments.
According to the plan, the lithium battery pack will be reduced from 1.700 yuan/kwh to less than 1.000 yuan/kwh in 2020 and below 500 yuan/kwh in 2025.
"But unfortunately, the price of lithium carbonate raw materials has risen so fast, and this price rebounded last year, so the development period of electrification may be 2-3 years longer than the planning period." Zhang Yu said.
The reality is that although the sales volume of "Wei Xiaoli" is increasing year by year, it is still in a state of deep loss from 2020 to 2022, far from breaking even.
"If it is stretched for two or three years, this thing will be cruel." Zhang Yu said, "The new forces or traditions may die in the 2-3 years in the process of transformation."
There is a slogan among investment securities analysts: "Electrification in the first half and intelligent competition in the second half. 202 1 or 2022 is already the first year of intelligence, and we have entered intelligent competition. "
Zhang Yu said: "Electrification has no first half and second half. Electrification is a full court. You have to win and lose if you want to play all the games. It may be two or three years. In the past two or three years, many companies have fallen down because the battery cost is too high, which is really unsustainable. "
At present, the cost of battery pack is 950 yuan/kWh, and the industry predicts that it will be reduced to 850 yuan/kWh by 2025.
When the battery cost drops to 500 yuan/kWh or lower and the homogeneity of EV products is serious, electrification will enter a mature stage. During this period, intelligence has become the core competitive content, and the new forces will give full play to their intelligence advantages.
Zhang Yu believes that the market competition share in 2030 will depend on which manufacturers can survive and win in the intelligent competition under the pressure of battery cost in the next few years.
He predicted that in 2030, new forces and technology companies like Huawei will have great advantages if the cost of batteries drops soon. New forces and technological enterprises: traditional autonomy (including joint venture autonomy): foreign-funded enterprises = 40%: 30%: 30%. If the battery cost falls below 500 yuan/kWh after 2027 and 2028, many new forces will die, and the ratio will become 20.
Li Hai: Quickly establish a strong, sustainable and highly resilient supply chain. On the morning of February 25th, Li Hai, Vice President of Purchasing and Logistics of Volvo Cars Asia Pacific, gave a lecture on the importance of building a high-toughness supply chain with his own experience as the theme.
"As we all know, making cars is hot! Data companies build cars, and Internet companies build cars. There are alliances and competitions between them, which are complicated. What does this mean? It means that traditional car companies must transform, and no transformation is a dead end! " Li Hai said that it is not enough to build a safe car now, and Volvo has redefined itself. The purpose of the company has become "to provide everyone with a smooth and worry-free travel plan in a personalized, sustainable and safe way".
According to the company's purpose and objectives, Volvo has released its electrification vision and set medium and long-term goals. The medium-term goal is that by 2025, 50% of the annual sales volume will be pure electric vehicles, 50% will be hybrid vehicles, 50% will be sold directly online, EBITDA (pre-tax profit, interest, depreciation and amortization) will reach 8%- 10%, and bicycle carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 40%.
After setting a goal, how to implement it? Leadership plays an important role in achieving goals and enterprise transformation.
"First of all, the leadership should be very clear about where corporate vision is." Li Hai said that our vision is to create personalized, sustainable and safe travel plans for people.
With leadership, there must be an effective implementation tool. Li Hai shared the "magic weapon" that he used for three years: using a tool called OKR, the English full name of Objectives? And then what? Major achievements.
OKR is not a performance appraisal like KPI, but a tool for performance supervision and improvement.
According to Li Hai, the management will vote regularly to determine a number of projects that are not particularly urgent but very important within a certain period of time, break the division of departments across departments, and at the same time adopt a two-way choice from top to bottom and bottom to top, and use the standing stand in the company patio every week. The meeting (representative meeting) will be resumed and promoted according to OKR's process.
"Whoever wants to do it, raise your hand." Li Hai said, stand-up? A meeting is to let the whole company see what they are doing and achieve transparency. "Every time, I will find many employees actively participating, because he can see that this is an opportunity to learn, exercise and grow."
OKR emphasizes a new way of leadership training.
Under the new situation.
This article is from auto business review, written by Yi Chehao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.