19 In May, Shell announced the financial report for the first quarter of 200212002.
The financial report shows that as of March 3 1, Shell's operating income was 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190.7%, its net profit was10.59 million yuan, and its adjusted net profit was15.02 million yuan. In terms of housing transactions, the total transaction volume (GTV) of shells in the first quarter was 65.438+00.696 billion yuan, up 224.2% year-on-year, including second-hand houses of 673.4 billion yuan, first-hand houses of 343.4 billion yuan, up 65.438+094.9% year-on-year, and other businesses of 52.7 billion yuan, up 65.439% year-on-year.
Combined with the annual financial report of 2020, the total transaction amount was 3499 1 billion yuan, and the net income was 70.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% compared with 20 19, while the adjusted net profit was 5.72 billion yuan, an increase of 245.4%.
This means that shells have been in a state of great increase in performance since last year. Looking at the whole industry, based on the national housing turnover in 20 19, the market share of shells was 9.5%, while the market share of mainstream brokerage companies represented by main competitors Zhongyuan Real Estate, I love my family and Leyoujia was only 4.3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively, and the gap with shells is widening.
How did the shells come today?
As a company name, Shell officially appeared only seven years ago, but the birth of the operator chain home behind it has a short history.
1992 Zuo Hui graduated from beijing university of chemical technology, majoring in computer science, and sold software everywhere in Beijing. Later, he was insured and had some savings. In August, 2000, Zuo Hui established the Beijing Chain Home Real Estate Exhibition Center, which was the first individual house purchase exhibition. 2001112, Zuo Hui established Jia Lian real estate. In the following years, the development of chain home has been tepid.
In 2005, the promulgation of the "National Eight Articles" made the real estate industry appear indifferent for the first time, which led to the collapse of the housing agencies of the middle-selling class. However, Zuo Hui's chain stores expanded against the trend and quickly became the mainstream intermediary enterprises.
Dictionary of construction industry standards and real estate
In 2008, Zuo Hui hired hundreds of people for free to check houses in residential areas of more than 30 cities.
20 12 when the market was flooded with false information, Zuo Hui made a high-profile proposal of "100% real housing": real existence, real sale and real price.
However, this "retrograde" caused the chain home to lose money for three months in a row. However, as Zuo Hui is convinced, "these customers will come back in 100 days. The question is whether you can persist and endure 100 days.
Shell has launched the "National Reality Plan" simultaneously in hundreds of cities across the country. Report and verify the false housing, reward 100 yuan. Since then, Shell has announced that the real housing rate in Tianjin and Ningbo has reached 96%. Shell has established an "identity card" for the listing through the VR and real estate dictionary of the listing to ensure the listing information.
Why does the chain want to pursue "100% real estate" in such a big way?
Zuo Hui and others realized that "the potential conflict of Internet transforming traditional enterprises exists between Internet spirit and traditional enterprise order. "Real housing" is essentially information symmetry. In order to achieve this, power is transferred from traditional organizations to systems and data. "
As a result, the concept of "real estate dictionary" was introduced and continuously upgraded in the chain. Peng Yongdong, which joined in 2020, well explains the logic behind this. "There are three parties in this industry: houses, customers and brokers. All data must have an initial carrier, and the best carrier is a physically motionless house. "
"This is not an accidental action, but a strategic judgment. Chain Home's goal at that time was to be the basic database of China real estate, including multi-dimensional information such as house number, standard floor plan, attribute information, supporting facilities information and historical business data. " Informed sources introduced.
From June 2065438 to June 2004, Chain Home established a special data center to provide real estate transaction services such as second-hand houses, new houses, rentals, residential properties and overseas properties. , and has industry-specific housing data, crowd data and transaction data, and uses data technology to drive the improvement of service quality and industry efficiency. Since then, the "real estate dictionary" has been continuously upgraded. On February 28th, 2065438+2008, Keke Holding Company, which has been preparing for several years, quietly went online, and launched the "Property Dictionary", a domestic housing information database with the largest data volume, the widest coverage and the most comprehensive dimensions, and the ACN mechanism that has been verified in chain stores, and opened it to the whole industry.
20 19, Peng Yongdong attended the China Development Forum. He proposed at the meeting: "The evolution of the industry is the evolution of standards. For the real estate service industry, it is the progress of material standards, service standards and human standards. " And define things, services and people as the three elements of residential service industry.
By the beginning of 2065438+2009, the number of real houses recorded by Chain Home exceeded 65438+85 million, covering 450,000 communities in 325 cities across the country. In the era of Ke Holdings Inc. 4.0 in 2020, the company further ensured the authenticity of the "real estate dictionary" through the "ant nest" intelligent collection system, and the corresponding real estate data richness expanded from 100 to 433 fields to define a house. At the same time, the identity ID of each suite source also ensures the unity and authenticity of the information.
The "real estate dictionary" launched by Chain Home solves the standard of things-truth and the truth of housing information. Chain home believes that this should be the basis of real estate transactions.
Create the rules behind the standard
For shells, if the "real estate dictionary" solves the standard of things, then ACN (broker cooperation network) solves the rule problem behind the service standard and the human standard.
In 2007, Chain Home introduced the SE system (SaleEfficiency) to ensure that brokers complete all the links from house entry, process management to transaction cancellation, so that the company can monitor the whole process.
The broker cooperation network (ACN) is a typical case, and its core logic is to split processes, divide interests and establish rules. Specifically, the chain split all the links of the house transaction, and each link corresponds to the person who entered the house, the holder of the key, the person who took the house, and the customer who traded. Each role will get the corresponding benefit share under the ACN system according to different contributions.
"In essence, the cooperation mechanism of ACN is to divide the signing process of helping customers into 10 links. Basically, behind every transaction, there will be four or five brokers sharing the work of this 10 link and earning their own income according to their contributions. "
If the establishment of real estate as the transaction standard is to inject fresh living water into the mixed real estate industry, we adopt the real estate transaction platform of ACN broker cooperation network system, shell stipulates the role, rights and obligations of brokers in the housing cooperative trading center through the commission distribution mechanism, and divide the working mode of real estate brokers by industrialized standard procedures. This is also regarded by the outside world as the biggest change brought to the industry after Zuo Hui founded Shell. In other words, it has injected a clear and quantifiable industrialization standard into the chaotic real estate transaction mode.
It took 18 years for the chain home to reorganize the process, subdivide the links, and realize subsection standardization, so everyone said that the shell is a collection of 18 chain home +2 years of shells. "Digital technology is not difficult. It is difficult to reconstruct rules with digital technology. This is an experience that non-trading platforms do not have, and it is also a moat that shells have built in 20 years. " Analysts said.
What does the chain home rely on for profit?
On 20 10, Peng Yongdong entered Shell and became a member of IBM consulting team. According to informed sources, at that time, IBM summarized eight business models for the chain home, one of which was the "toll station model", which focused on transactions and then extended upstream and downstream.
Shell holds the real estate dictionary and ACN, which makes it possible for real estate transactions full of subjective will to meet the standard requirements of industrialization. Specifically, under the platform rules, the real estate transaction process is divided into multiple links, and brokers are encouraged to cooperate with each other, participate in different links and share benefits; Brokerage brands on the platform can enjoy all the real listing information indiscriminately.
Shell is now composed of new house+second-hand house business, and the commission for new house has increased by leaps and bounds. The commission for second-hand house is 8% of the total commission+800 handling fee (bank approval 300+ transfer 500).
Shell's slogan is cooperation to win. A house is composed of multiple roles, namely, the importer, the maintainer (within three kilometers), the surveyor (cameraman), the key person, the client (copy of ID card and real estate license) and the trader, with the ratio of 5- 10-5- 10-. After the commission is collected, it will be handed over to the shell headquarters in a unified way, and the corresponding commission amount will be returned after 2 working days.
Intermediary rate of chain second-hand houses:
Judging from the intermediary rate of second-hand housing, chain home is higher than other brands.
On the Shell Platform in 2020, except for the second-hand house transaction amount of1010/900 million yuan completed by Chain Home, the second-hand house transaction amount of other brands is 928 10/0 billion yuan.
From 20 19 to 2020, the service rates charged by Shell Platform for the transaction amount of second-hand houses of other brokerage brands are 0.34% and 0.32% respectively.
Internet plus brokers, new houses plus second-hand houses, and self-management plus platforms are the key words of the real estate brokerage industry. At present, the best combination of these six keywords on the market is shell. The fundamental reason for this is profit sharing, and the interests of Shell agents are better linked.
Generally speaking, the chain home imitates the business model of Zillow, a famous American real estate information inquiry network. It buys the original data of real estate from MLS, an American real estate agent, and then sells the agency right of the website area to the broker on the premise of providing convincing data to the customer, and then collects the commission from the broker.
So the logic of this matter is: ①Zillow bought house data from MLS, and through analysis and calculation, accurately told consumers how much the house was worth. 2 brokers buy Zillow's regional agents or advertisements, and even click on them to get accurate customers. (3) The broker obtains the houses according to the MLS system and displays the transactions.
Today's shells are equivalent to the combination of Zillow and MLS. The current MLS system integrates more than 90% of the second-hand houses in the United States, but its houses are mainly bought with money, while the shells were mainly calculated by people in the early days. At present, the housing information has not been publicly released, and it is estimated that most of them are bought. From this point on, shells and MLS gradually converge.
However, the value of MLS is more like the value of lawyers. Property owners can entrust brokers to list for sale, and real estate agents will also help show and bargain, which is the core of MLS.
In the future, if shells want to expand their profit sources, it is not enough to simply eat the price difference and advertisements. Like the big leagues, they should also take another slice of the real estate transaction itself to maximize their benefits. In this sense, it is reasonable for you to say that the shell ate the plaintiff and the defendant.
But at present, there is no unified housing in China. Real estate companies only sell their own houses or exchange houses with several well-connected peers, but the limitations are very strong. It is precisely because of this situation that consumers get twice the result with half the effort in real estate transactions, which also leads to the non-circulation of information, resulting in the nonstandard real estate market and the decline in transaction quality because of opacity. The guests spent money, but they couldn't buy a satisfactory house.
Chain Home dares to open all its genes and open its chain home operation system, which has served 8,000 stores with 654.38+0.5 million brokers, to the major merchants and brokerage companies that have joined Shell, which itself requires great courage.
The practice of chain home is to empower the industry, give the same chain home genes to peers, and help benign operations. The quality of online traffic on the whole network should be improved, and we real consumers will believe it. The establishment of rules, in today's industry, brokers will be fired at most if they harm the interests of customers or companies. If another company continues to work, there should be an industry-wide rule in the future. Brokers must abide by the rules if they want to develop professionally for a long time. Change the game relationship between brokers and customers, and let customers trust through mechanisms instead of playing tricks on each other. Platformization should also protect the rights and interests of brokers, and an institution is needed to safeguard the interests of brokers.
"We are building a stadium. More and more people want to play football here, and the rules are getting better and better." Zuo Hui once used football to describe shells. In his view, the nature of the industry is changing. What Shell does is to rebuild the ecology of the whole industry with the manager and broker as the center.
The shell won.
In 20 15, Chain Home successively merged Yicheng Real Estate, Deyou Real Estate, Yijia, Zhonglian (Real Estate) Group, Beijing Gaoce, etc. 1 1 real estate agency companies in first-and second-tier developed cities in different ways. After the acquisition, the number of chain brokers soared from 50,000 to nearly 654.38 million+people.
In just two years, Keke Holding Company has become the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China.
Everything is ready to go public in America. On August 13, 2020, Keholding Co., Ltd. rang the bell on the New York Stock Exchange. According to the prospectus, Keke Holdings achieved GTV (total transaction amount) of 21300 million yuan in 20 19, an increase of 84.5% year-on-year. Among all commercial platforms in China, its volume is second only to Alibaba. In 2020, its total revenue reached 70.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%, and its annual net profit was 2.778 billion yuan.
According to the prospectus, before this IPO, all the senior executives of Shell Group and their directors * * * held 565,438+0% of the shares of the company, among which Zuo Hui held 28.9% of the shares through Auspicious Global Holdings Limited, but had 46.8% of the voting rights, making him the largest shareholder of the company.
In addition, Tencent and its related entities, SoftBank's investment company SVF II Shell Subco (Singapore) PTE. Limited company, Gaoyao Capital and their related entities hold 65,438+02.3%, 65,438+00.2% and 5.3% of the shares of Shell respectively.
At present, the indicators of shells are in an excellent position in the real estate industry. To determine the key cash flow of the real estate industry, Shell's cash and cash equivalents from 20 17 to 20 19 were 8.2 billion yuan,/kloc-0.28 billion yuan and 3/kloc-0.90 billion yuan respectively.
On the first day of listing, the opening price of Ke Holdings Inc reached $35.06 per share, which was 75% higher than the issue price. It finally closed at $37.44/share, with an increase of over 87% and a total market value of $42.2 billion.
About three months after listing, the share price of Keke Holding Company has risen by about 200 times. 20201October 25th, 165438+ Branch Holding Company announced that it had completed the issuance of 2.05 billion US dollars.
After the listing of Shell, the highest share price reached $79.4/share, with a market value of $94 billion, or about RMB 600 billion, almost equivalent to the sum of the market values of China head housing enterprises Country Garden, Vanke and Evergrande.
The shadow of monopoly has not been eliminated.
On April 10, Yao Jinbo, the former CEO of 58 Group, publicly questioned Keke Holdings' "two choices" and called on the state to punish it. At the same time, Yao Jinbo also attached two photos. One is that in Ke Holdings Inc. APP, the listing information is clearly marked with the "exclusive" logo; Second, the photo of the agreement shows that Shell requires Party B to "voluntarily" choose exclusive cooperation with Shell in the contract.
In response to this matter, Shell responded that since its establishment, Shell has insisted on operating in accordance with the law, improved the compliance system, and driven the benign development of the industry with technology.
In fact, with the development of shells in recent years, the problem of monopoly is not the first time. The CEO of Keke Holding Company once said that the shell is the infrastructure and rules of the industry and does not compete with anyone. Therefore, there is no monopoly.
Source Weibo screenshot
On April 14, the General Administration of Market Supervision announced the third batch of commitments for Internet platform enterprises to operate in compliance with laws and regulations. Iqiyi, Branch Holdings, Dangdang, Duodian, Where to Go, 58 City, Hungry, Reading, Alibaba, (the third batch).
Undoubtedly, Shell has indeed entered the highest list supervised by the General Administration, and it is the only real estate intermediary platform among the 34 national Internet platforms that has been "named". Many people think that Shell is both a platform website and a brokerage business, which is equivalent to "being a referee and an athlete".
On May 8, some media reported that the platform of Keke Holding Company was cooperating with the regulatory authorities for self-inspection. As for whether Keke Holding Company is suspected of monopoly, detailed data investigation is needed. Nowadays, the spearhead of local government regulation and control is increasingly pointing to artillery shells. Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Wuhan, Dongguan ... have been eyeing shells, or taking off houses, or proposing the control targets of second-hand houses.
Previously, from 2065438 to September 2009, hundreds of representatives of real estate agents in Jinhua, Zhejiang signed the Anti-Shell Alliance Treaty, and 530 stores of the Alliance shouted "Oppose monopoly and resist unhealthy competition"; In April, 2020, 0/00 intermediary companies in Yancheng/KLOC, Jiangsu Province also rebelled against the shellfish system on the grounds of "resisting bad competition".
On the afternoon of May 25th, Reuters suddenly released news at the same time. According to sources, in recent weeks, the State Administration of Market Supervision is formally investigating whether Ke Holdings Inc forced real estate developers to list housing information only on its platform, including chain homes and shells, which is called "substitution". The survey has not been publicly announced. At present, we don't know when the investigation will end, and we don't know what impact it may have on Keke Holding Company. ..
According to the Anti-Monopoly Law, if an operator's market share in the relevant market reaches half, it can be presumed that the operator has a dominant market position. Because the real estate industry is basically a local transaction, various intermediary platforms will compete with each other in different cities.
From a national perspective, the proportion of shells is currently less than 10%. In response to the topic of monopoly, Peng Yongdong, CEO of Keke Holding Company, once said, "Our market share was only 5.3% in 20 18, 9. 1% in 20 19, and about 12%- 13% this year."
But in a single city, such as Beijing, Zuo Hui told the media on 20 15 that the market share of Chain Home in Beijing is about 55%-60%. This is undoubtedly in line with monopoly standards.
Shell has many brands such as Chain Home, Freedom, Deyou, Central, Sumitomo, 2 1 Century Real Estate, etc. Online, Shell has 456,000 brokers and 42,000 brokerage stores; Online, Shell has formed a real estate dictionary database of 226 million suite source information, standardizing transactions and services. Real estate dictionary+broker, shell has built its commercial moat.
Relying on the online and offline encirclement, few buyers can escape from the hands of shells.
Despite Shell's strong defense, people still found the monopoly factor from Shell's behavior.
Some people think that the shell is very "strong" to use its dominant position to increase the commission of second-hand housing transactions in some cities. According to previous media reports, at the beginning of this year, Shell raised the agency fee from 2% to 3% in hot cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Chongqing, with the buyer bearing 2% and the seller bearing 1%.
Not only consumers, but also openers. Of Shell's 206 projects in Tianjin, there are actually 122 projects with channel fees exceeding 3%, and 18 projects with channel fees exceeding 5%.
It is said that in a forum on 20 17, a professor from Tsinghua University told Peng Yongdong, CEO of Chain Home Network, "Your model is to cheat at both ends, the landlord and the buyers."
CITIC Securities pointed out in the research report released in July last year that in the long run, can shells really define the infrastructure of housing transactions? This is not only a competition problem of commercial track, but also a market supervision problem.
Zuo Hui once said that the agency fee in China is not high, about 2.5%, 6% in the United States and Japan, 8% in South Africa and 2% in Hong Kong.
The implication is that Shell's ambition is only nine Niu Yi cents, and there is still room for the agency fee to rise.
In April, 200212002, six stores, including Jia Lian and I Love My Family, were closed for rectification. Violations of laws and regulations include: deceiving consumers to conduct transactions by improper means such as concealment, and releasing housing information without authorization. Beijing listed the crackdown, including real estate agents creating tension, speculating on school districts, and driving up housing prices. Previously, Chain Home implemented the "exclusive agency" model in Shanghai and Beijing, which pushed up housing prices and was stopped by the Housing Construction Committee.
Here, as we said before, it is actually a trend for Shell to get rid of losses and move towards a positive financial cycle in the second-hand housing commission. In essence, it is inevitable for Shell to choose this business model, but whether it has taken advantage of monopoly business in some areas needs further observation.
The scenery is not infinite forever.
Shells are so beautiful that they cannot but arouse the high vigilance of industry giants.
If 58 cities in Yao Jinbo are no longer the focus of Shell's attention, then the entry of the other two giants should arouse Shell's sufficient vigilance.
First of all, E-House joined hands with Ali Tmall Fang Hao to become a wholly-owned subsidiary of E-House. At the press conference, Zhou Xin, Chairman of E-House Board of Directors, confidently shouted the slogan "Real estate transaction is simple because of us", saying that in the future, the platform will achieve the goal of daily active users of 3 million, annual transaction volume exceeding 2 trillion and annual revenue of 50 billion.
Followed by the treasure of RV launched by Evergrande.
According to the management of Evergrande at this year's performance meeting, there are currently 43,000 stores in RV Bao. Last year, the transaction volume (GTV) was 1.2 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the GTV will reach 2.2 trillion, 5438+0 by the end of 2026, which is closer to the shell.
By contrast, by the end of 2020, Ke Holdings Inc had about 46,900 stores with a transaction volume of 3.5 trillion yuan. It seems that the scale of RV treasure is approaching the shell step by step.
More importantly, Evergrande provided sufficient "ammunition" for the larger acquisition of RV Bao this year. On March 29th, Evergrande officially announced that RV Bao had introduced 65,438+07 strategic investors with a financing amount of HK$ 65,438+063.5 million. Evergrande plans to list RV Bao in the capital market this year.
At present, most of the treasures of RV are Evergrande's houses, and it is not known whether it will become an open platform in the future. However, the market space left for RV Bao is still very large.
According to the report of CIC, the total real estate transaction in China will reach 30.7 trillion yuan in 2024, and the compound growth rate from 20 19 to 2024 will reach 6.6%. At present, the market share of shells is less than a quarter.
In the case that the whole market is still in the blue ocean state, no one can say clearly whether the 20-year moat built by shells relying on the authenticity of housing and the standardization of brokers can withstand the powerful impact of later giants.
As Zuo Hui said, there is still a long way to go to do the "difficult and correct" things that shells do. Now his departure has undoubtedly added greater uncertainty to this unfinished business.