The Policy Proposal on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry in the Late Stage of the Epidemic (hereinafter referred to as the "Proposal") recently issued by the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce pointed out that at least 46 real estate enterprises (mainly small and medium-sized enterprises) were affected by the goods with a value of over 440 billion yuan, a monthly operating cost of about 23.5 billion yuan, and debts due in the first half of 2020 were nearly 530 billion yuan. ?
According to the data of the People's Court Announcement Network, as of February 25th, 75 developers have issued bankruptcy announcements this year. ?
Is the financing chain of small and medium-sized housing enterprises under pressure again?
The predecessor of the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce is the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. On July 23rd, 20 12, approved by the State Council, it was registered as a national first-class legal person in the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the competent unit was the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. ?
The "Proposal" issued by the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce on February 1 1 said that in order to prevent the epidemic from spreading further, a series of measures such as suspending project construction, starting the project, delaying the resumption of work, closing the sales office and suspending customer reception will have a great impact. ?
According to a survey conducted by the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, the projects to be delivered by enterprises in the first half of this year account for 30%-50% of the total delivered projects in the whole year. Due to the suspension of project construction, the closure of offline sales channels, and the sharp decline in corporate sales returns, real estate enterprises are facing enormous cash flow pressure, even large enterprises are not immune. ?
Among the 72 enterprises surveyed by the agency, 46 housing enterprises (mainly small and medium-sized enterprises) have been affected by goods worth over 440 billion yuan, with a monthly operating cost of about 23.5 billion yuan and debts due in the first half of 2020 of nearly 530 billion yuan. Twenty-six industrial chain enterprises have a backlog of more than 4 billion yuan, a monthly operating cost of more than 2 billion yuan, and debts due in the first half of 2020 are about 5.5 billion yuan. ?
The agency also suggested that the government should "make policies according to the city and enterprises", stabilize industry expectations, help the industry to tide over difficult times smoothly, guide the industry to accelerate benign integration, and ensure the healthy operation of the entire national economy. ?
In fact, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the capital chain in the real estate sector was not loose. According to the research report issued by Everbright Securities, as of June 2020 1, excluding the impact of repurchase, the total maturity of real estate bonds in 2020 is about 836.5 billion yuan (648.5 billion yuan in 20 19), of which 60.2/kloc-0.0 billion yuan is due in China and 234.5 billion yuan is due abroad. ?
According to statistics, real estate enterprises with higher debts due this year include Vanke, Evergrande, Wanda, Country Garden and Greentown. ?
"This year, especially for developers in cities where our reserves are concentrated in the third and fourth lines, it is even worse. The wave of traffic that was expected to return home is now completely hopeless. Judging from the current situation, this year's reduction is at least 10%. " The marketing director of a small and medium-sized housing enterprise said in an interview with 2 1 Century Business Herald. ?
He Miannan, an analyst at Everbright Securities, believes that there is limited room for improvement in the new construction area in a single month. Since 20 19, under the pressure of sales expectation and downward ranking, the assessment of project nodes of housing enterprises has become stricter, and new construction has moved closer to saturation stocking. Excluding the Spring Festival and mid-year assessment factors, the monthly new construction volume in other months is basically stable at around 200 million cubic meters, which is significantly narrower than in previous years, and there is little room for new construction momentum in a single month. ?
He Minnan is optimistic that the epidemic situation in COVID-19 will be controlled in the first quarter of 2020, and the control will be lifted in April, and migrant workers will return to work one after another, and housing enterprises will resume normal work. The loss of newly started area in the first quarter will be balanced (-15%). Ignoring the epidemic situation in the next few months, it is predicted that the growth rate of newly started housing area in 2020 will be around -9.4%, which is about 2.06 billion cubic meters. Under the pessimistic assumption, the epidemic continued until the end of May and resumed normal operation in June. Assuming the loss degree from June 65438 to May (-25%), ignoring other influences, it is predicted that the growth rate of newly started area in 2020 will be about-15%, which is about19.3 billion cubic meters. ?
The scale of overseas financing has reached a new high?
"This year, the debt maturity pressure of housing enterprises is relatively high, and the sales return brought by the superimposed epidemic has plummeted, and the financial pressure has further intensified. At present, under the main tone of staying in the house and not speculating, the possibility of large-scale water release is very small. Therefore, in addition to accelerating the self-help of destocking, the next stage of enterprises may need other financing means to help tide over the current difficulties. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald. ?
In order to speed up the withdrawal of funds, the sales model of real estate enterprises has shifted from offline to online. ?
According to the statistics of Kerri platform, there are hundreds of live sales every day. Evergrande Group is the real estate enterprise that started the first shot of online house purchase. Liu Xuefei, vice president of Evergrande, said earlier that from February 13 to February 18, customers subscribed for 680 19 houses through online sales. ?
In addition to Evergrande, Country Garden, Vanke, Shimao, Longhu, Blu-ray, Beijing Investment Development and many other real estate enterprises have opened online sales offices, and used VR and other technologies to quickly build an online three-dimensional display platform to guide customers through online+big discounts. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the performance will increase or decrease. ?
"VR viewing is not uncommon. We have had similar means for a long time, but it is hard to say whether we can really achieve sales in the end. Judging from past experience, this can only be used as an auxiliary means. The total price of a house in a first-tier city is generally more than 5 million, and the second and third lines are concentrated in two or three million. Although some real estate enterprises have made slogans such as no reason to check out in order to increase their enthusiasm for buying, it is still doubtful whether they will eventually become real sales performance. " A real estate salesperson told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald. ?
In addition to increasing efforts to sell houses and withdraw funds, large-scale financing is also one of the ways for housing enterprises to save themselves. ?
According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in 20 19, the overseas financing of real estate enterprises was as high as 75.2 billion US dollars, while in 20 18, it was only 49.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 52%. ?
This year 1 month, the financing amount of real estate enterprises reached $654.38+0.2 billion, setting a new high in recent years. Since the outbreak of the Spring Festival epidemic, domestic and foreign financing has continued to operate at a high level. Since February, the US dollar financing plan issued by real estate enterprises has exceeded10 billion. Not only has overseas financing accelerated, but the mainland has also issued tens of billions of government bonds. Many housing enterprises have also issued short-term debts that were rare in the past. ?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that overall, the real estate industry is short of funds, and housing enterprises seize the window period and issue a large number of US dollar bonds. In 20 19, the dollar debt of real estate enterprises reached a record high. In 2020, dollar financing will continue to operate at a high level. In order to cope with possible market changes in the future, most housing enterprises will also speed up reserve funds at the beginning of the year. For dollar debt, it is an important capital supplement for some housing enterprises, but it is difficult to become the main source because of the quota. The blowout of dollar debt is of great benefit to alleviate the financing of some enterprises.