Last Thursday, I asked you a question: Is the title of a certain hui good, or are there many people who pay attention to the stock market?

The statistical result is: the title is good, and the title party has seen more.

I'm relieved. I am really worried about the market trend recently.

0 1 market view

Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and went lower, closing down slightly by 0.66% to close at 3 159.05. Growth enterprise market refers to four consecutive yin, closing down 0. 13% to 1824.59 points. Market turnover continues to shrink. The total turnover of the two cities was only 396.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and most of the industry sectors closed down.

I stared at the market all day and saw that gold also rose, crude oil also rose, and stocks also fell, so I thought I might really fight. As a result, the United States, Britain and France launched missile air strikes against Syria on Saturday, launching more than 100 missiles. It is expected that the stock market will directly open lower tomorrow, and the subsequent evolution will become the key. Affected by risk aversion, short-term gold and oil may fluctuate upward.

In fact, last Thursday's article "What's the difference? ? The list of people stuck in their jobs 20 minutes in advance every day (click to read the original) is the asset allocation list of a certain benefit in the second quarter. Students who haven't had time to watch it can watch it again. I specially added suggestions on the allocation of gold and oil.

02 Duan Yan Yan

Why attack Syria?

AEF: We suspect that he has weapons of mass destruction.

Why not attack Russia?

AEF: He really has weapons of mass destruction.

Some Hui: Fortunately, we were born in a peaceful country ~ ~ ~

The circle of friends can sometimes reflect the humanity of girls to the fullest.

If she is beautiful, she will probably be narcissistic;

If she is rich, she is likely to show off her wealth;

If she is clever, she probably likes to be clever;

If she is knowledgeable, she is likely to become a good teacher;

If she is not beautiful, rich, smart or knowledgeable, she will probably be hacked.

A Hui: I encourage everyone to get more sunshine and don't care what others think ~ ~ ~

Now this weather is:

People who wear more envy those who wear less,

People who wear less envy people who wear more,

People who wear neither too much nor too little envy those who wear too much and those who wear too little.

Some Hui: The chef who sells breakfast told me that the soybean milk was still cold two days ago, but it was hot these two mornings. No one in Wuhan this year ~ ~ ~

03. Random blindness

Let's talk today: Why are almost all mutual gold platforms made into Ponzi schemes?

Introduce yourself solemnly again. I am a senior financial practitioner with IT thinking, majoring in computer and finance. Since 20 13, I have been particularly optimistic about the internet finance business and have been paying attention to and studying the development of this business.

At the end of 20 14, I went to a company for an interview and met its boss. At that time, I mainly talked about the company's internet finance business.

In fact, from the perspective of traditional financiers, Internet finance is-Internet technology+financial application, technology is the bottom, products are the carrier, and risk control is the soul.

However, my thinking is obviously incompatible with absurd words such as "reshaping business model" and "O2O".

Of course, the interview failed.

I remember very clearly that before I left, my boss asked me a question:

"Now Tencent has a technology that can match and review the needs of lenders through the Internet and realize loan issuance through the Internet. In this way, how can the traditional credit process of banks compete with it in efficiency and cost? If there is really a way to achieve it through computer algorithms, what do you want with the bank? "

I couldn't answer this question at that time, but I think I can answer it again today-

"Internet finance can only solve technical problems. The core of finance lies in how people who use technology control and isolate risks through systems and processes.

Identifying, preventing and resolving risks through product design and system flow are the core cheats of commercial banks. It's not that anyone can fool people with a platform and a concept.

If internet finance can't do this, it will only lead to more risks. "

Having said that, I remembered a story I once told on WeChat official account-

(See "The King Asks Me to Visit the Mountain" on February 9, 20 16 (click to read the original))

20 1 1, my mother bought a high-interest product of "General Red" company. This company rented an office in Shuangzilou, next to a provincial branch of a bank, and hired a group of young salesmen, aiming at the elderly, and carried out business through high-interest products (annualized 12%), free travel, and giving away ecological agricultural products every year.

At that time, I told my mother: this is a lie.

Instead, she questioned that I didn't understand for three reasons:

Knocking on the blackboard is the reason why most people fall for it.

First, friends around you are buying, and others buy hundreds of thousands;

Second, I pay interest every six months, which is quite good;

Third, if you rent the building of your bank, your credit will definitely be fine.

I repeatedly asked her how much she bought. She said first that she only bought 40 thousand.

Later, I explained to her repeatedly, but she was still dubious. I only threatened not to come to me and cry in the future, and severely warned her not to invest again and get the money back immediately after it expired. She only promised me this.

A few years later, she accidentally let it slip, and I realized that she bought 80 thousand instead of 40 thousand.

Fortunately, I got my money back on 20 13 (the product expires in two years).

I looked up this company on the Internet just now. As a result, many old people bought tens of millions, and finally lost all their money. So far, they haven't found it.

I have never felt so wise, and I have never felt so much malice in the world. That was close, that was close ~ ~

At that time, I once said in an article-

"Although my mother's money is coming back, I still have many regrets in my heart. Although I tried my best to tell all kinds of front-line personnel in various trainings within my ability to ask customers not to invest money in companies such as third-party wealth, because: you want others to pay high interest and others are staring at your principal.

I'm also reflecting. If I can let more people know what I think of these companies as soon as possible at 20 1 1, even if I make some noise, many old people will not be deceived.

Because of this job, I learned more professional knowledge and risk common sense, and also saved my relatives from being trapped in it and saved the savings of the elderly at home.

But it's really pathetic that there are more elderly people who don't have these experiences and abilities. This is the biggest risk-losing all the principal before the money can turn around. "

Back to the topic, why are almost all mutual gold platforms made into Ponzi schemes?

One is the surplus of funds and capital. In 20 15, under the call of that famous slogan, funds fleeing from capital allocation and stock market sought new development direction, and hundreds of millions of venture capital poured into the internet finance industry, resulting in an industry bubble.

Second, the quality of assets has gradually declined. With the influx of funds, the later it is, the harder it is to find a good asset target. I have said many times that if a good enterprise needs financing, the first step is to find a bank, because bank funds are cheap. What banks are unwilling to do is often handed over to brokers and trusts, which is the second step; The rest of the third step or even the n step can be put into internet finance enterprises, split into targets and sold online.

What the bank doesn't do must be that the collateral is defective or the lender has credit risk. Therefore, although the target that the corresponding Internet finance companies can get has high returns, the corresponding risks are also great.

Third, once you step on the thunder, you will falsely let the product continue to live. The later, the worse the assets, the harder it is to make money. This is a common problem in the entire Internet finance industry.

In the long run, there will definitely be assets that cannot be redeemed, and in order to redeem, the platform can only continue to issue new products.

Fourth, who wants to get up early and get greedy for spreads when there is quick money to earn?

At this point, I feel that it is equivalent to opening Pandora's box: some mutual gold platforms feel that they can raise funds without asset targets, which is much faster than I am struggling to find assets every day.

At present, there are all irregular use of funds, misappropriation and abuse of funds, and even fatal self-financing (providing money to shareholders) on the mutual gold platform.

Of course, this is a fairly standardized platform development path-capital will eventually destroy capital itself.

We professional financial professionals just need to hold our own positions, upgrade our weapons and shells, practice martial arts, and wait for the enemy to destroy themselves. Of course, we should try our best to help customers identify risks, even if it is only a kind reminder.

Again, if a customer buys a product on this platform, please go and get the money back early, because there is too much thunder.

Listening to the song "Summer in Distant Memory" is my long-standing regret and chagrin. Although our personal influence is very small, we should try our best to make a weak cry. However, I also know that there are still many people cheated, but doing it is better than not doing it. Good night, see you tomorrow ~ ~

Suffix: The fund is risky, so the investment should be cautious. It only represents personal views and does not constitute specific investment advice.

2018 April 15 at 22: 43 in Wuhan.

Someone who finished a marathon said: When the body doesn't belong to you, the soul is at your fingertips ~ ~