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What is the reason why Yuan Shikai betrayed the Reform and Reform?
The reformists in China had no minimum strategic vision and did not understand the political situation of the Qing Dynasty at all.

The Qing government was Manchu politics, and the power distribution belonged to the exclusive power of Empress Dowager Cixi. Generally speaking, power presents a binary situation of the opposition between the emperor and Manchu. In this case, Guangxu wanted to seize the power of the empress dowager, and the Han people wanted to deprive the Manchu of their privileges through reform, which was a matter of considerable interest.

Defending the country and defending the country is the ancestral motto of the Qing Dynasty. Only by oppressing the Han people can China be ruled politically for a long time. This is the most basic truth. In front of 400 million Han people, there are fewer than a few million Manchu people. After the awakening of the national consciousness of the Han people, the Manchu dynasty was not over. Therefore, the foreign wars of successive Manchu governments were basically reparations. Even if they win, it's still compensation. It is not that 400 million people can drown them with spit, but that the Manchu government must consider whether it can mobilize the Manchu people to fight a national war.

Historically, the failure of the Reform Movement of 1898 lies in placing hopes on emperors who have no real power, which is obviously indisputable.

But don't ignore the fact that no matter how big a right is, it needs a right base and an interest base. No matter how big a dictator is, he can only be a table figure of a certain interest group or a certain class. What he did betrayed the interests of this group and was doomed to collapse.

In fact, Guangxu was the Manchu emperor and was promoted by Cixi. Obviously, his power base had to rely on Manchukuo Qi. In this case, if you want to get real power from Empress Dowager Cixi, you must use it to win the support of Manchu nobles. But he obviously didn't understand this truth. He really regarded himself as the emperor of China, and made political reforms to save China. But once the political reform is realized, the strength of the Han people will be greatly enhanced and the privileges of the Manchu people will be weakened. Isn't this about clearing your own life, how to be an emperor?

Cixi is an excellent tactician, and it is obviously problematic to classify her as a stubborn old school. Cixi wouldn't acquiesce in the Westernization Movement if she didn't want the country to be strong.

Can only say this, she is very understand, the meaning of protecting China, she is very understand, from the ancestors in the three hundred years of rule, still put the northeast Longxing land as a forbidden area, meaning obviously, all the emperors of the Qing Dynasty never really regarded themselves as China people, they always wanted to leave a retreat for their children and grandchildren like the Mongols of the Yuan Dynasty, so they were all sinicized, so they had policies. Just to make the position of slave owners longer. The so-called Manchu family is not substantially different from the future goodwill between China and Japan and the glory of East Asia. The difference is that the Manchu Dynasty was colonized by backward barbarians in China, so it will be sinicized in the end. Japan is an advanced capitalist culture. Once China is colonized, China will tend to be Japanese. The so-called Japanese invasion of China.

Because of this, Cixi will not approve of political reform. A short-term reform will shake the privileges of the Qing Dynasty, and a long-term implementation will shake the foundation of the Qing Dynasty, and the final outcome will definitely be the return to China politics. Cixi, because she was clear, put forward the purpose of measuring China's material resources and won the favor of other countries.

So it's a pity that Guangxu had a chance to get back the real power, provided that he wooed the Manchu nobles and understood the fundamental truth that he was Manchu rather than China, but he was politically immature.

The specific history should be seen in the specific environment. In fact, before Dr. Sun Yat-sen proposed the harmony of the five ethnic groups, Manchu people had no reason to think that they were from China. Later puppet Manchukuo can also prove this point. There is no need for Cixi to really think that she is from China. Then, she won't care about letting the slave's filial piety win the favor of foreign adults. She cut the land of the Han people and paid the sweat of the Han people. Naturally, this is not a problem.

Just like this, after studying in the Qing Dynasty, Sun Yat-sen decided to take a violent revolution, democracy and peace. Even though he was very clear about the New Deal, he was unmoved, not because he knew too much about western democratic ideas. It stands to reason that most of their revolutionary activities in life were carried out in Japan. Why didn't they touch the Meiji Restoration in Japan at all? Because Meiji Restoration was not suitable for China at all. He is very aware of the nature of Manchu colonizing Han Chinese. Will follow the example of Zhu Yuanzhang, drive out the Tatars and restore China. In fact, only this slogan has the most appeal and can mobilize 400 million people. It is democratic and harmonious, and it is not suitable for China. The greatest achievement of Sun Yat-sen's life is to make this practical thing, which ideologically contributed to the Revolution of 1911.

As for the enlightenment and practice of democratic constitutionalism, Lao Jiang obviously didn't inherit the last words.

So the late Qing Dynasty introduced a series of things to strengthen and change. Among them, only Sun Yat-sen and the Revolutionary Party are the real backbones of the Chinese nation. For Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao, Li Hongzhang and Zeng Guofan, there are no words to describe them except a group of alienated slaves. It is true that Tan Sitong's generation, for example, is indeed a passionate person, but it is inevitable to go astray. Even people like Li Hongzhang and Zeng Guofan talked about a great change in China in the past three thousand years. As far as strategy is concerned, their vision is very broad. But because of the ignorance of the Qing Dynasty, they got on the wrong boat. Their hands are stained with the blood of China compatriots, but they have contributed to the development of China. Therefore, the comments of historical figures are difficult to make up.

The same is true of Yuan Shikai. Without Yuan Shikai, the Revolution of 1911 might not have been successful. His position as president of the Republic of China is well deserved, and Beiyang Army is his strong point. Sun Yat-sen should understand this truth even to his death.

What hurt Yuan the most in those years was the betrayal of Emperor Guangxu. With the deepening of the study of Qing history, people have to admit that Yuan Shikai did not betray Emperor Guangxu, but was criticized by Yuan's political enemies and misunderstood and doubted by ordinary people. How smart and wise Yuan Shikai is, he will think twice before doing such a thing that endangers his family. Many people don't believe Yuan Shikai's diary of the Reform Movement of 1898, because he is a "national thief". After the publication of the diary of the Reform Movement of 1898 for so many years, many people scoffed and thought that Yuan Shikai's defense was not enough to refute. However, with the excavation of historical facts, people are liberated from the rigid history teaching and think that he is right. 1898 After the coup, Cixi thought Yuan was a figure of the "imperial party" and "new party" and wanted to kill him. Fortunately, Rong saved him. On the other hand, Yuan Shikai told Cixi through Rong Lu. What crime? Cixi is the actual ruler of the Qing Dynasty and the supreme leader of the country. It is disloyal to let him "kill the queen around the garden"! Rong Lu is Yuan Shikai's benefactor and immediate superior. Killing Rong Lu is unjust! As a promising old soldier, what would he do if he was asked to do something unkind and unfair? Cixi and Yung Wing were heinous criminals who wronged the country in the mainstream discourse power in modern times, but they were not at that time. Cixi has a group of loyal "post-party" courtiers to support her. Rong Lu is a competent official in people's minds, but it is not. 1898 After the coup, Rong Lu was advised that Yuan Shikai was a villain with "two rat heads" and should be killed. Rong Hong said frankly: "Yuan is my man, and it doesn't matter whether the head or the mouse are at both ends." (Su Jizu's History of the Reform Movement of 1898) The number of "imperial parties" has increased and their status is not high. Kang Youwei, 40, is in charge of the Sixth Product Industry Department. Liang Qichao, 25, manages the auditorium and translation office of Shi Jing University with his sixth product title. Tan Sitong, 33, is a military aircraft with the sixth rank. Yang Shenxiu is the supervisor of Shandong Road. Xu Lin, 365438+, 23 years old.

Weng Tonghe, the only co-organizer, minister of military aircraft and "imperial envoy", was also dismissed on the eve of the "Hundred Days Reform". What is the attraction of an emperor who can't even keep his teachers and cronies? Chen Baozhen, the governor of Hunan Province (Chen 1900 was given death by the stubborn Cixi) was the only person who responded to the imperial edict of political reform. After the Reform Movement of 1898, Guangxu of the Western Empress Dowager was abolished, and Dipper, the son of Duanjun County, was the emperor. Duan Wang Zaiyi, Zhuang Zaixun, Fuguo Gong Zailan, Cheng Engong (father-in-law of Tongzhi) Chongqi, Minister of Military Affairs, Master of Science, Minister of Military Affairs, Minister of Punishment and Minister of Justice Qi Xiu strongly encouraged them to engage in unscrupulous activities. The abolition of legislation was unsuccessful because foreigners opposed it, and Rong Lu, the number one confidant of Cixi, even opposed it. Zhang Zhidong, a well-known government official praised by Mao Zedong, is also a diehard "post-Party". Tang was a famous reformist in Liuyang, Hunan Province in the late Qing Dynasty. In his early years, he founded a current affairs school with Tan Sitong, edited Hunan Daily, and publicized political reform and reform. Exiled in Japan after the failure of the Reform Movement of 1898. 1990 organized the Yishe Society in Shanghai, and later renamed the Zili Society to support Guangxu's administration. Zhang Zhidong, then governor of Huguang, took a note to the British consul, arrested him from the British Concession and killed him. After Guangxu's death, Zhang, then Minister of Military Aircraft, followed Cixi's will and drew up a posthumous title for Guangxu, which was filled with the meaning of belittling Guangxu. Ministers alienated Guangxu one by one, and even the queen took the lead in isolating Guangxu. Wang Zhao recorded in Fangjiayuan Miscellaneous Poems: "Since the Sino-Japanese War, Yulong has been rude to the emperor. Although there is no empty text at the festival, he has never entered the business for fifteen or sixteen years. " This shows how lonely Emperor Guangxu was at that time. With Yuan Shikai's courage, he dare not tie his fate with a puppet king!