Why do I dare to assert that more than 200 thousand is the imported car market? Mainly from the current demand for cars and the number of licenses in third-and fourth-tier cities. The following points need attention:
1, Chinese people have always had a soft spot for imported cars (including me), thinking that as long as they are imported, they have good quality, high technology, fuel economy, good power and beautiful appearance, which is better than joint ventures, especially telling friends that I bought imported cars makes me feel special. Obviously, 500,000 to 600,000 cars will also make people feel 700,000 to 800,000, which greatly satisfies my vanity.
2. With the substantial increase of imported cars and the change of the exchange rate between the US dollar and RMB, imported cars will become cheaper and cheaper. All imported cars are sold to 300,000, joint venture cars can only be sold to 200,000, joint venture cars can only be sold to 200,000, and independent brands can only be sold to 6.5438+10,000. I won't elaborate on the reasons here.
3. Story-I once heard a friend say that the owner of a grocery store next door, who has been operating for more than 65,438+00 years, spent more than 300,000 yuan last month to buy an Audi A4L 2.0T (the specific configuration was not mentioned) and parked his car in the garage every day. He bought it and only opened it twice in more than a month. A thrifty couple, reluctant to hire labor, drives another Changan Zhi bought early every day. A friend asked the young couple why they bought this car and why they didn't drive it after buying it. This car cost more than 300 thousand, why not continue to invest in bigger business? The young couple replied that it is enough for them to earn about 100 a year by opening this store, and the money they need is about 300 thousand. If we continue to invest, it will not be proportional to the output. However, the money you earn now will depreciate if you put it in the bank. Might as well buy a good car. Anyway, devaluation is more important than earning some face. At least when you go out to chat with others about business, others will see that you drive an Audi. It's simple. You drive a Wuling steamed stuffed bun and an Audi A4L, and the other person looks at you differently. (This story should reflect many problems, so you can experience it yourself, so I won't go into details. )
4. It's still a story-cities are expanding, and many of them used to be rural areas, but now they have become suburbs or development zones. The local government needs to expropriate these lands and turn them into development zones with various names. However, because the country has a policy of building a harmonious society, it is more difficult to levy real estate. In order to avoid fierce confrontation with farmers, land expropriation will turn to large areas of uninhabited buildings such as farmland, dangerous houses and pig houses, so that farmers can get subsidies for demolition and replacement of new houses. Moreover, the current demolition policy is that in addition to making it clear that the building with real estate license is five or six floors, compensation will be made according to the actual situation, regardless of the height of the old and new buildings, so many ordinary people will own a lot of real estate and funds because of the demolition for no reason (of course, this is a good thing), but when ordinary people can only get about 1000 yuan a month, their pockets suddenly swell up and they don't know how to spend the money. Originally, the house was just a pile. The more money, the greater the desire. What you want most is a car. What should I do? Because of the demolition, I have 6,543,800 yuan in my hand. How much are you going to spend on buying a car? Deduct some necessary expenses, set aside some funds, and set aside 300 thousand to buy a car. What car should I buy? Think about how convenient it is to buy a car with a loan these days. The down payment is 200,000 yuan, and the remaining 654.38+million yuan will be used for gas, insurance and post-maintenance (this money is enough for you to buy this car for five years, or even more). That's easy. With a down payment of 200,000 yuan, you can at least buy a car of 400,000-500,000 yuan. What cars are there in this area? How cheap imported cars are now. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi, whether cars or coupes, are enough. (I won't say the latter, let's analyze it. )
The above two stories are true, from which we can see that different people have different opinions.
For the future development of the automobile industry, there is basically no big change, and it should go along this track. The final result is the demise of independent brands, and China will no longer own cars with independent intellectual property rights, just as our air force bombers do not have their own engines. In the event of war, all products or armaments that need engines will stop, even if it has the largest oil inventory in the world, it will be a backwater.
If we want to save our own brand and engine, it is useless for us to shout slogans, cry and complain here. We must be tough and have policy guidance. Some suggestions: (If you can't speak it well, please pat the bricks to your heart's content. Although it is relatively damaged, it can save its own brand. Of course, a little daydreaming)
1, no matter what WTO, strictly limit the import quota of imported cars;
2. If you want to establish a joint venture with domestic car companies, you must produce the best products;
3. Both CKD and SKD must collect a lot of import taxes, and turn these taxes to support the research and development of independent brands (such as Geely, BYD, Chery, Great Wall and other pure independent brands);
4. The tax exemption for self-owned brand cars will be increased from 10% to joint venture cars 15%-20%, and imported cars will be more than 30%;
5. In terms of licensing procedures and fees, independent brands are exempt from inspection and free of charge; Joint venture vehicles must be inspected, and the lowest license fee is 1000 yuan; Imported cars should also be inspected, and the licensing fee is at least 2000 yuan;
6. For vehicles with joint venture brand listed, three parts must be localized within 1 year, and all parts must be localized within 3 years;
7. National official vehicles shall not use independent brands, joint venture brands and imported cars;
8. All subsidies and support policies issued by the state are only open to independent brands, and joint venture brands and imported cars are not allowed to enter;
9. Reward intellectual property rights of independent brands, and give heavy rewards or more support policies to car companies that independently research and develop intellectual property rights;
10, unify the maintenance working hours standards of joint venture vehicles and imported vehicles, and all 4S shops and maintenance service shops shall not reduce their prices. Once found, hell to pay;
1 1. Only independent brands are allowed to open stores in 4S. Joint venture brands and imported cars are not allowed to open stores in 4S. They can only be sales shops or repair shops. Once found, the local policy authorities will force the demolition.
Finally, I don't have much research on the used car market, so I can't express my personal views.