Recently, there was a very rare quarrel between my mother's central bank and my father's Ministry of Finance. Because there are two Xiong Haizi, one is called a financial institution and the other is called a local government.
Here's the thing-
0 1
A few years ago, I ate, drank, and was extravagant, and I owed a lot of debts.
My parents' grandfather couldn't stand it anymore, so he called a family meeting and warned them with an expression:
I'll see which one of you still borrows money, and pay me back! Grandma, you should take care of financial institutions and forbid them to borrow money indiscriminately. Finance dad, you should manage local governments well and forbid them to spend money indiscriminately.
Putonghua: deleveraging
Grandma and financial dad nodded like garlic and repeatedly said: You are right, we will do it!
After summing up, Yang Ma and financial dad decided to divide the work like this: Yang sang the good COP, tightened his wallet and stopped giving money to financial institutions; Finance dad plays the bad COP and actively supports local governments and their friends (enterprises and residents) to work hard and earn money.
Putonghua: monetary tightening and fiscal easing.
As the saying goes, it is difficult to change from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. Soon, Xiong Haizi began to cry.
At first, my mother was as cold as ice, and my financial father was sitting on his hands. They think Xiong Haizi's crying is certain, but he will get better soon.
However, unexpectedly, Xiong Haizi cried twice and began to hang himself three times!
Mandarin: the stock market plummeted and debt defaulted. ...
Watching the child cry "I die for you" every day, the grandfather still can't bear to put it down: Yang Ma, what's in it, give the child some pocket money.
Yang Ma said helplessly: Didn't we agree not to be used to children?
Looking at grandpa's firm expression and financial dad's confused eyes, Yang Ma finally spoke: OK, I know. ...
Yang Ma obeyed and executed well, and soon sent the bill to Xiong Haizi.
Putonghua: lowering the standard
Don't forget to add a sentence every time: this money is hard to come by, so save some flowers.
Xiong Haizi happily took the money, shouted "OK" and disappeared.
Yang Ma looked suspicious: Why doesn't financial dad care about them? What has he been up to recently?
I don't know if I didn't see it, but I was shocked when I saw it.
In the past six months, the financial dad not only failed to provide work support for his children, but even stopped many previous "venture funds".
Putonghua: In the first half of the year, the central government suspended or tightened many government subsidies, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, airports, shed reform and so on.
A few days ago, the family ledger was published.
Putonghua: publishing economic data
Grandma was completely confused: financial dad really had a good time in the past six months, and there was more and more private money.
Putonghua: fiscal revenue in the first half of 20 18 exceeded 10 trillion, a record high.
Thinking of myself in the past six months, I can't help but feel angry, in order to pay off my debts.
Putonghua: In the first half of the year, the scale of social financing increased by 9 1 trillion yuan, 2.03 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. M2 growth rate hit a record low.
So, Yang Ma grabbed her financial dad by the collar and quarreled-
02
Previous single wheel
Yang Ma: I thought it was agreed that you would give money to support your child to start a business. In the end, instead of giving money, I asked them for money. Aren't you a hooligan? You shout slogans every day, saying that you want to reduce the burden on your children. Did you reduce it? Do they feel it? They already suspect you, you know?
Putonghua: The growth rate of fiscal revenue is relatively fast. This year's budget in deficit ratio is 2.6%, which is tight compared with last year's level of 3%. A proactive fiscal policy that does not increase the deficit is hooliganism. There have been many tax cuts in recent years, but enterprises and residents lack a real sense of gain. In recent years, the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction has exceeded one trillion yuan. In the first half of the year, tax revenue increased by 15.3% and GDP increased by 6.8%. This phenomenon makes people question the effect of tax reduction policy.
Finance dad: What makes you say that I didn't give money? Can you settle accounts? You can't stop giving money to children just because there is more money in my small vault.
Putonghua: Different countries have different fiscal revenues and expenditures, so the deficit caliber is also different. In addition, the size of the deficit cannot simply be equated with the strength of the proactive fiscal policy.
Yang Ma: Speaking of small coffers, let me ask you this: Since you and the local government are so rich, why did you borrow money from me and financial institutions? Did the wind blow away our money?
Putonghua: The national treasury deposits of governments at all levels are four or five trillion yuan. It is unreasonable for governments at all levels to borrow money while saving money.
Finance dad: …
Second round
Yang Ma: Do you know how difficult it is for me to pay my debts? Where does our debt come from? Not because you saved it with the profligacy of the local government?
Putonghua: The leverage ratio of financial institutions is passively added up, which is the result of the expansion of local governments and state-owned enterprises and the increase of leverage ratio. The leverage behavior of local governments is the source of high leverage risk.
Finance dad: …
Yang Ma: We agreed that I am responsible for financing, and you are responsible for providing registered capital to financial institutions and managing them. What about now? Did you pay? The money you paid before was also fake, but I paid it in essence. Did you take care of them? Do you want me to take care of it in the end, and you will be the shopkeeper of cutting?
Putonghua: The financial departments perform the responsibilities of investors of state-owned financial capital in a centralized and unified way, including: 1. Enrich the capital of state-owned financial institutions. The state-owned capital of existing state-owned financial enterprises is largely untrue. Before the previous capital injection, the finance did not really save money. Second, through the diversification of bank board structure, improve the professionalism of the board of directors and improve the corporate governance level of state-owned financial institutions.
Finance dad: Your money is easy to come by. Of course you have to spend it lavishly? Every penny I spend is the child's (taxpayer's) money. Can I just give it to you? Twenty years ago, under such difficult circumstances, I tried my best to support financial institutions, and you even said that I would not pay!
Putonghua: At that time, the financial capital injection into banks was an important embodiment of strengthening the proactive fiscal policy, and then the financial support for the share reform of commercial banks was unquestionable. From the special national debt and interest payments that have always existed, to the transformation of non-performing assets of banks into high-quality creditor's rights, these are real money and rights, and the ultimate undertakers are taxpayers. How can we write them off in turn and turn them into "help" for the banks themselves and the central bank?
Third round
Yang Ma: Now it's time to pay the debt. You settle the responsibility with the local government and say that it is owed by his friends (state-owned enterprises, etc.). You don't want to pay back the money, do you? Are you going to let me pay back the money with the financial institution?
Putonghua: Before the boundaries between government and market, finance and finance were clarified, some hidden debts were excluded from government debts and pushed away, which did not help to resolve the risks themselves. This practice may lead to moral hazard of local governments, reduce the willingness to pay debts, and transfer financial risks to the financial sector, which will inevitably increase the bad debt risk of financial institutions and even lead to systemic risks.
Finance dad: Who said you don't want to pay back the money? Didn't the local government agree to pay it back later?
Putonghua: Even if some local governments deliberately depress the stock debts contained in government debts, they pay more attention to performance appraisal and risk indicators, rather than deliberately default and wait for default.
Yang Ma: Is it easy for me and financial institutions? In the past, the local government was the boss. They borrowed money from financial institutions, but he swallowed it and had to pay it back. You should take care of the local government and don't let them mess around, okay?
Putonghua: Historical experience shows that due to the inadequate implementation of fiscal and taxation reform, financial institutions cannot control the illegal financing behavior of local governments without conditions. The Ministry of Finance should establish an appropriate incentive and restraint mechanism to correctly guide the behavior of local governments. It should not only give local governments room to play their initiative, but also establish a hard restraint mechanism to prevent local governments from acting indiscriminately.
Finance dad: Do you think financial institutions are "stupid and sweet"? They are actually "accomplices" or "accomplices" of local governments. Without them, it is impossible for local governments to borrow so much money. Financial institutions also make money for themselves, okay? In a sense, local governments are also victims.
Putonghua: Local governments do not regulate all forms and links of lending, and almost all kinds of financial institutions are involved. The complexity of its packaging operation far exceeds the working level of the basic financial department. When financial institutions help local governments to raise funds, they will naturally design the most favorable scheme for themselves, which not only ensures rigid payment, but also maximizes their own income. Considering the strong financing impulse of local governments, it is hard to say which side is stronger and which side is weaker.
Mother: ...
Finance dad: Finally, I want to remind you that you should mind your own business. We have a big family now, and you still settle accounts with me all day. Your mind is too limited. You should improve yourself and manage the exchange rate or something.
Putonghua: Although the internationalization of RMB is actively promoted and the central bank's role in global monetary policy coordination is constantly enhanced, the international status of RMB lags behind China's economy, and the marketization level of interest rate and exchange rate is still far from the expectations at home and abroad. More important than the reality gap is the concept gap, that is, decision-making thinking still belongs to the characteristics of small central banks.
03
That's how it happened.
As a member of Xiong Haizi, what do you smell?
I think:
1, Yang Ma really doesn't want to release more water, which is a financial burden.
2. There may be big moves in finance, and it is estimated that infrastructure and tax reduction will really make efforts in the second half of the year.
3. De-leveraging requires the concerted efforts of the Ministry of Finance and other departments.
In the second half of the year, everyone should not worry about the government's default, but the account period may be a bit long. However, it will not be so easy to get money in the future.
Finally, ask a question, who will be protected by local governments and financial institutions in case of bankruptcy?
what do you think?