On September 28th, Tangshan, the city with the highest price increase, introduced eight new policies to regulate the property market, including increasing the down payment ratio of second homes from the previous 40% to 50%, prohibiting funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market, and implementing land transfer methods such as "price limit and competitive land price" to crack down on illegal activities in the real estate market according to law.
According to the statistics of research institutions, since July, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other 13 cities have introduced tightening policies for about 20 times to curb and prevent the market from overheating. In the third quarter, the effect of property market regulation began to appear, but the key city "Jin Jiu" has not yet appeared, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has halved.
Industry insiders predict that the new housing market may see a new trading peak in the Eleventh Golden Week, and the "Silver Ten" can be expected. However, the second-hand housing market is not necessarily good during the National Day, or it is in a lukewarm or even slightly sinking trend. The seasonal rebound of the market at the end of the year is not strong, and the transaction in the whole fourth quarter may continue to fall. Housing prices in key cities are generally flat, and cities with strict regulation may fall.
Tangshan curbed speculative real estate speculation, and the down payment for second homes rose to 50%
In order to adhere to the orientation of "housing without speculation", achieve stable land price, housing price and expected goals, support reasonable self-occupation demand, curb speculative real estate speculation, strengthen real estate financial supervision, crack down on illegal activities in the real estate market according to law, standardize the order of the real estate market, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and strive to create the advantage of low housing prices in cities, Tangshan issued eight new policies on property market regulation on September 28.
The New Deal adjusted the differentiated housing credit policy: for families with/kloc-0 apartments in downtown areas, in order to improve their living conditions, they apply for commercial personal housing loans, and the down payment ratio is not less than 50%; Families who buy a third home or more will suspend their loans.
At the same time, in order to resolutely and effectively prevent housing enterprises from hoarding housing and driving up housing prices, the New Deal requires that commercial housing projects that meet the pre-sale conditions must apply for pre-sale permits within 30 days; If the sales price has been put on record, the pre-sale permit shall be handled within 10 days; If the pre-sale permit has been handled, it must be sold to the public at one time within 10 days.
In order to crack down on speculative real estate speculation in accordance with the law, the New Deal has strengthened the supervision of the real estate market, requiring real estate development enterprises not to register and book in the form of lottery, lottery, VIP card issuance, membership recruitment and deposit. Before obtaining the pre-sale permit for the development project. If the subscription is made after obtaining the pre-sale permit, the actual purchaser must be consistent with the subscriber except the immediate family members, and the real estate development enterprise shall not go through the formalities of renaming. Real estate intermediary service institutions shall, in accordance with the provisions, go to the real estate authorities for the record, and shall not publish or speculate on the false news of rising house prices, or speculate on the number of houses for illegal profit, or promote the rise of house prices through false means.
In addition, the New Deal has further strengthened financial supervision, and it is strictly forbidden for funds to flow into the real estate market in violation of regulations. Housing enterprises and intermediaries may not provide services such as "down payment loans" in any form or in cooperation with other financial institutions. Once found, it will be included in the "blacklist" management.
In terms of land transfer, the New Deal proposes to implement the land transfer policy of "limiting house prices and competing land prices", and the implementation ratio is not less than 50% of the land supply area.
It is worth mentioning that the New Deal proposes to increase housing security, introduce high-level talents into Tangshan through talents, and enjoy the preferential policy of "Phoenix talents" to buy houses.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the price increase in Tangshan in recent months is among the highest in the country. In August, the price of new houses rose the fourth in the country, and the year-on-year increase was the second in the country for three consecutive months; The price of second-hand houses rose the third in the country from the previous month and the second in the country year-on-year, ranking first in the country for nine consecutive months. Therefore, the rise in housing prices makes it necessary to tighten regulation.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that Tangshan's new policy is in line with expectations, that is, cities that have participated in the symposium of the Central Committee and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have generally tightened their housing purchase policies, and Tangshan is indeed slightly hot on some real estate indicators. The New Deal increased the down payment ratio of the second home loan from 40% in the past to 50%, which was similar to other cities that tightened. It fully shows that some cities with overheated housing prices will make a fuss about second-home loans, which truly reflects the direction of cracking down on real estate demand. In addition, policies such as "limiting house prices and competing for land prices" are helpful to increase housing supply, reduce land prices and house price speculation, and finally stabilize house prices. If some housing enterprises are still speculating in the "Golden September and Silver 10" stage, it is expected that the regulatory policies will still be tightened, including the control of the real estate transaction order.
Many "Jin Jiu" have insufficient color, and the transaction of second-hand houses in Shenzhen is halved.
Since July, many central meetings have emphasized that "housing is not speculation", and many hot cities have intensively introduced property market regulation policies. The regulatory effect appeared in the third quarter, but the property market "Jin Jiu" has not yet appeared.
According to the statistics of RealData, in the third quarter, the total number of new house transactions in 66 cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, and the transaction area increased by 1. 1% year-on-year and 0. 1% quarter-on-quarter. Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities have introduced regulation and upgrading policies to crack down on real estate speculation and prevent fluctuations in the "Golden September, Silver 10" market. September did not drive the rapid increase of data in the third quarter, which shows that the short-term effect of the policy appears.
From the perspective of the second-hand housing market, the actual transaction volume of second-hand housing in key cities in the third quarter 18 decreased by 9% month-on-month, and the transaction volume in over 80% cities decreased month-on-month. RealData pointed out that there are two main types of cities with the highest decline: one is cities that experienced regulatory overweight in July, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan and Nanjing. Among them, Shenzhen fell by nearly 50% month-on-month, the largest decline, and Dongguan turnover also fell by 42%. Nanjing's transaction volume in the third quarter decreased by 25% from the previous quarter; The other is the cities in the Bohai Sea urban agglomeration, such as Dalian, Langfang and Jinan, which decreased by 33%, 25% and 19% respectively.
In addition, in the third quarter, the actual transactions of second-hand houses in Guangzhou, Wuhan and Xi 'an increased against the trend. Among them, Wuhan was at the epicenter of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, and the market started late. In the third quarter, the market is still in the recovery channel, and the turnover in the third quarter increased by 2 1%. Transactions in Guangzhou and Xi 'an in the third quarter continued to increase by 23% and 65,438+09% respectively.
From the perspective of housing prices, RealData data shows that the price of second-hand houses is still mainly rising in the third quarter, with 14 cities rising month-on-month. However, as the transaction went down, the momentum of the average price increase in key cities gradually lost, and the price increase in over 70% of key cities narrowed or even turned down.
It is worth noting that Shenzhen, which has repeatedly blocked the upgrading and regulation, has been hit hard. Not only did the transaction volume of second-hand houses halve in the third quarter, but the price increase of second-hand houses also narrowed by nearly 3 percentage points compared with last month. The monthly price of second-hand housing has stopped rising and leveled off, and the regulation effect has appeared, which needs further fermentation. At the same time, Shenzhen's "7 15" New Deal was supplemented by the "729" New Deal. Although the growth rate of new house transaction volume rebounded slightly in the short term after the adjustment and upgrading, the overall regulation was stricter. The annual cumulative transaction area growth rate of the new housing market was controlled at 9.4%, and the number of apartments increased by 6.3%. RealData predicts that the overheating situation in Shenzhen will continue to be suppressed.
From the perspective of Beijing, the second-hand housing market came out of the epidemic in the third quarter. Although the transaction volume decreased by nearly 10%, the year-on-year growth rate was the highest for nine consecutive quarters. From June 5438 to September, the cumulative transaction volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, turning from negative to positive for the first time. According to RealData data, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing Chain Home decreased by 10% in the third quarter, up by 45.8% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction volume in September decreased by about 8% from the previous month and increased by more than 50% year-on-year (the base was low in September last year). RealData believes that the reason for the decline in the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in September is that on the one hand, after the second epidemic in Beijing in July and August, the demand for second-hand houses resumed to digest part of the demand for buying houses, and the transaction volume decreased in September, indicating that the market recovery growth basically ended after the epidemic; On the other hand, the supply of new houses was seasonal in September, and some new projects introduced discount promotions, so some demand for second-hand houses was diverted by the new housing market.
In terms of housing prices, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. The price increase is mainly affected by the structural factors of the increase in the proportion of transactions in some urban areas; Judging from the house price index, the second-hand house price in Beijing in September was basically the same as last month. It is expected that the rebound in the fourth quarter will be weaker than that in the same period last year, and the annual price increase will remain stable.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at RealData, pointed out that several factors affected the lack of color of "Jin Jiu" in September. First, in August, real estate enterprises did rush to collect and run away. Second, intensive regulation had a negative impact on the market at the end of August. Thirdly, the Mid-Autumn Festival was merged into the National Day in September this year, and a sales node was missing, which led to a slight shortage of "Jin Jiu" color at present. But in fact, on average, from August to September, the overall trend is still upward, and it can be seen that it is still in the process of obvious recovery.
Regarding whether "Silver Ten" will appear, Pan Hao predicted that from the band index and subscription index of "Shell Hundred Cities", the subscription index will drop obviously after September, but the band index will basically remain stable, that is to say, although the band of this part of customers has not changed in September, this may be related to consumers' expectation that there may be discount promotion activities during the Golden Week, but this part of customers will form a transaction in the next two to four weeks, so 65438+.
For the second-hand housing market expectations, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that if a large number of new houses can be reduced in price, the substitution relationship with second-hand housing will be very significant. During the National Day, the second-hand housing market is not necessarily good, or neither too hot nor too cold, or even slightly sinking. At the end of the year, the seasonal rebound of the market is not strong, and it is expected that the transaction will continue to decline throughout the fourth quarter. Housing prices in key cities are generally flat, and cities with strict regulation may fall.