Great Power Relations in the Post-crisis Era

Main contents:

I. Post-crisis era

Second, the post-crisis world political and economic structure

Third, the prospect of Sino-US relations in the post-crisis era.

Key points:

The world political and economic structure in the post-crisis era

Difficulties:

Prospect of Sino-US Relations in the Post-crisis Era

I. Post-crisis era

Refers to a relatively stable state after the crisis has eased. But this state is relative, because the root cause of the crisis has not been eliminated and the crisis has not ended, so there are still many uncertainties in the world economy, and the economic crisis will come back or even intensify at any time.

Second, the post-crisis world political and economic structure

1, USA: Ideas and actions have changed.

In June 5438 +2009 10, US President Barack Obama officially entered the White House with the campaign slogan of "change". Yuan Peng, director of the American Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that this year can be said to be a year of change in the United States. Obama's transformation begins with the concept: first, the transformation of strength and strategic concept marked by "smart power", that is, recognizing the limitation of American strength, realizing the coordination of soft and hard power, and paying more attention to the flexible use of various power resources instead of blindly fighting hard; Second, the world outlook marked by the "multi-partner world" has changed, giving up the purely ideological supremacy, drawing a clear line between ourselves and the enemy to a certain extent, facing up to the reality of political multipolarization and seeking diversified diplomacy to deal with the diversified world.

The change of concept brings about the change of action. Yuan Peng said: comprehensive adjustment or rectification constitutes the most distinctive feature of American diplomacy this year, including continuing to adhere to counter-terrorism, but paying more attention to the diversity of threats and the comprehensiveness of strategic layout; Greatly adjust the relationship with the Islamic world and dilute the clash of civilizations; Restart US-Russian relations, reshape US-European relations, enhance US-India relations, and reconstruct US-Japan relations; Ease relations with "hostile countries" such as North Korea, Iran and Cuba. However, the change is difficult to produce immediate results, the prospect of the war situation in Afghanistan is unpredictable, and there is still no substantial progress in the DPRK nuclear issue and the Iranian nuclear issue.

Sino-US relations are particularly eye-catching this year. Chinese and American leaders have held many important meetings; Establish a new orientation of positive, cooperative and all-round relationship between * * and efforts to build 2 1 century; Start the strategic and economic dialogue mechanism. Yuan Peng believes that the positive changes in Sino-US relations are the result of both the trauma of the United States and the development of China, as well as the great changes in the international environment and the new changes in the Obama administration's concept of China. China and the United States issued a joint statement for the first time since 12, which laid out a complete and detailed road map for the development of Sino-US relations, which is of great significance. The international community treats the new development of Sino-US relations with more expectation that the two great powers of China and the United States will work together to deal with the economic and financial crisis, climate change and international security issues.

2. EU: Focus on two strategic commanding heights.

2009 was an extraordinary year for the European Union: the crisis was fierce, and the EU first went its own way to save itself, and finally unified the rescue of the market. With the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU finally has a "president" and a "foreign minister". Shen Yannan, vice president of the European Society in China, believes that the EU has improved its internal cohesion in response to the economic crisis, and after the emergence of the so-called "President" and "Foreign Minister", the EU has the institutional conditions of "speaking with one voice".

Shen Yannan pointed out that the reform of the international financial system and the response to climate change are two strategic commanding heights for the EU to expand its global influence. In the reform of the international financial system, the EU wants to take advantage of the deep crisis in the United States to challenge the hegemony of the dollar and improve its position and power in the international financial system. On the one hand, the EU tries to maintain its advantages on this issue, on the other hand, it tries to restrict other countries. The EU hopes that the low-carbon economy will become an important breakthrough to reverse the economic development momentum behind the United States and BRIC countries.

China-EU relations, which encountered difficulties last year, are approaching this year. In May, the 11th China-EU Summit was held in the Czech Republic. 165438+ 10, the 12th China-EU Leaders' Meeting was held in China. Shen Yannan believes that the direct reason for the improvement of China-EU relations is that China and Europe have strengthened cooperation in coping with the international financial crisis, and the deep reason is that China-EU relations have a broad strategic foundation. In response to the argument that the so-called "two-state theory" makes Europe anxious, he pointed out that Sino-US relations and China-EU relations are equally important to China, and Europe-US relations and Europe-China relations are equally important to the EU. It would be a strategic mistake to simply evaluate one side and the other. China-EU relations are of international significance, and China-EU cooperation is conducive to world peace and development and the prospect of multipolarization.

3. Russia: "restart" relations with the United States and Europe.

The relationship between Russia and the United States eased significantly in 2009. Russia and the United States announced the "restart" of bilateral relations and conducted a new round of nuclear disarmament negotiations; After Obama's visit to Russia, he announced that he would abandon the Bush administration's anti-missile plan for Eastern Europe. The dialogue mechanism between NATO and Russia has been restored, and the channel for transporting materials to NATO troops in Afghanistan through Russia has been restarted.

Jiang Yi, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the motivation for the relaxation of Russia-US relations mainly comes from two aspects: First, the new round of confrontation between Russia and the United States triggered by the anti-missile issue in Eastern Europe and NATO's eastward expansion after the Russian-Georgian conflict has almost reached its peak, and the tension between the two major powers is not in the interests of both sides; Second, the United States is currently facing many thorny issues, such as the financial crisis, the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq and the Iranian nuclear issue. To solve these problems, Russia's support is needed. It can be said that the relaxation of Russian-American relations this year is, to a certain extent, a too tight revision of the past and the result of a series of more urgent problems.

Russia and the European Union have maintained communication and cooperation on regional hotspots, energy and security issues this year, but the negotiations on the new partnership agreement between Russia and Europe have not yet reached a conclusion, and the European Union has not actively responded to Russia's proposal to sign a new European security treaty, and has also launched the Eastern Partnership Plan for CIS countries. Jiang Yi believes that these trends show that there is still a lack of strategic mutual trust between Russia and Europe, and there is still no way to eliminate the root causes of the crisis.

2009 marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. Chinese and Russian leaders have met many times to deepen political mutual trust and closely coordinate and cooperate on major international issues. In the fields of economy, trade and energy resources, the two countries have continuously built new platforms and carried out pragmatic cooperation; In the field of cultural exchange, China successfully held the "Russian Year" activity; In the military field, China and Russia held joint military exercises and signed an agreement to inform each other of missile launches. Jiang Yi believes that in 2009, China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership will go further.

4. Japan: Injecting new diplomatic ideas.

In 2009, an "earthquake" occurred in Japanese politics, and the long-term ruling Liberal Democratic Party stepped down, and the three-party Coalition government headed by the Democratic Party came to power.

Wang Ping, a researcher at the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Japan's "regime change" is objectively a response to changes in the international situation, in order to gain new vitality and seize the "favorable terrain" in geopolitics. The new changes in Japanese views on the United States and Asia have laid an ideological and social foundation for Hatoyama's new regime to carry out "reciprocal diplomacy" and "friendly diplomacy". The coming to power of the Democratic Party has injected new ideas into Japanese diplomacy.

The new changes in Japan-US alliance are a highlight of international politics this year. Wang Ping pointed out that Japan still regards the Japan-US alliance as the basic axis of diplomacy, but at the same time, it also sees the changes in the world pattern and the limitations of the Japan-US alliance, and wants to develop a "mutually beneficial relationship" with the United States. The new regime of Hatoyama has started consultations with the United States on the relocation of the Futenma Airport in Okinawa and the status agreement between Japan and the United States. At present, the negotiations between Japan and the United States on the relocation of the Futenma Airport in Okinawa are deadlocked. Next year marks the 50th anniversary of the Japan-US alliance, and the trend of Japan-US relations attracts people's attention.

In 2009, China-Japan strategic and mutually beneficial relations developed steadily. When President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Hatoyama met in new york, they reached an important consensus on further developing Sino-Japanese strategic and mutually beneficial relations under the new situation, and pushed Sino-Japanese relations into a new stage of development. China and Japan continue to strengthen economic and trade cooperation, strengthen interest ties, and promote regional and world economic recovery; The two countries have also carried out in-depth cooperation in the fields of science and technology, culture and education to promote the development of Sino-Japanese relations to a higher level and in a wider field. Wang Ping believes that although there are still some contradictions and differences between China and Japan, it is undeniable that the relations between the two countries are facing new opportunities for development.

Third, the prospect of Sino-US relations in the post-crisis era.

1) Three reefs of Sino-US relations in the post-crisis era:

1) Trade dispute

In the first week of June 5438+065438+ 10, 2009, the escalating trade conflict between China and the United States made people smell a "smoky smell".

On June 5th, 2009, 165438+ The U.S. Department of Commerce decided to impose an anti-dumping duty of up to 99. 14% on oil well pipes imported from China, involving a product amount of 3.2 billion U.S. dollars and more than 90 China iron and steel enterprises.

On October 6th, 2009165438+/KLOC-0, the Ministry of Commerce of China decided to initiate a "double-reverse" investigation on imported cars and off-road vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or more originating in the United States.

On June 6, 2009165438+1October 6, 2009, the United States International Trade Commission made a preliminary ruling and imposed "double-reverse" tariffs on coated paper imported from China and Indonesia, potassium pyrophosphate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate and dipotassium hydrogen phosphate imported from China.

2009 1 1.7 Jian Yao, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that "especially the trade friction between the United States and China is increasing". Statistics show that from June 5438 to September this year, the United States launched 14 trade remedy investigations against China, involving a total amount of 5.84 billion US dollars, up 639% year-on-year.

In September 2009, the Consumer Product Safety Commission of the United States recalled 15 products from seven countries and regions, among which China recalled 6 products, accounting for 40% of the total recalled products, ranking first.

2) Arms sales to Taiwan

20 10/29/0, 65438+ announced a new wave of arms sales to Taiwan, including 60 Black Hawk helicopters, Patriot III missile system, 2 Harriers, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Bosheng command and control system, with a total amount of 6.392 billion US dollars.

3) Human rights issues

2) China-US human rights dialogue

From May 3, 2003 to May 4, 2004, the first human rights dialogue between China and the United States will be held in Washington. Obama has repeatedly stressed the importance of Sino-US relations, and has also shown a new stance on human rights issues.

First, it is clear that the common interests of the two countries are more important than differences; Second, dialogue with China on differences;

Third, don't let differences hinder cooperation.

Third, the second round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

From May 24th to 25th, the second round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held in Beijing. Sino-US relations are showing signs of warming up, and a period of intensive interaction is coming.

1. The strategic dialogue achieved 26 concrete results:

In the State Council, China and the United States signed the Memorandum of Cooperation between the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission of the United States on Further Strengthening the Nuclear Safety of Westinghouse AP 1000 Nuclear Reactor, the Work Plan of the National Energy Administration of China and the Sino-US Shale Gas Resources Working Group, the Memorandum of Understanding between China's National Development and Reform Commission and the State Council on the implementation of the framework of the Green Partnership Program, announced the establishment of a joint secretariat of the Green Partnership Program and started a new round of green partnership pairing work. China and the United States signed the Memorandum of Understanding between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs and Border Protection of the US Department of Homeland Security on cooperation in supply chain security and convenience, and renewed the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Health and Human Services of the United States of America on cooperation projects for emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. China and the United States signed the Memorandum of Understanding between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs and Border Protection of the US Department of Homeland Security on cooperation in supply chain security and convenience, and renewed the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Health and Human Services of the United States of America on cooperation projects for emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. We welcome the progress made in the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding on Strengthening Cooperation on Climate Change, Energy and Environment between China and the United States and the Ten-year Cooperation Framework on Energy and Environment between China and the United States, and agree to strengthen pragmatic cooperation in the fields of climate change, energy and environment. The two sides issued the Sino-US Joint Statement on Energy Security Cooperation. The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in preventing and combating illegal transportation of nuclear materials and other related radioactive materials. We agree to continue the dialogue on human rights issues on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and look forward to the next round of human rights dialogue in China next year. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it reaffirmed its support for the Copenhagen Accord; Announced that China's National Development and Reform Commission and the US Environmental Protection Agency will fulfill their commitment to the Memorandum of Cooperation on Strengthening Capacity Building for Climate Change in June165438+1October 2009, and plan to hold a meeting within one month to start implementation; Agree to start discussing short-term greenhouse gases.

2. The results of the economic dialogue include five important contents:

1) The two sides promised to further accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and adjust the economic structure. The United States promises to promote the establishment of a more balanced and sustainable economic development model and increase the savings rate. China will continue to increase the contribution rate of domestic consumption to economic development and strengthen the construction of social security system.

2) The two sides promised to establish a more open global trade and investment system and oppose trade and investment protectionism. The United States will seriously consider and give fair and reasonable treatment to China enterprises applying for "market-oriented industries" in the trade remedy investigation, and quickly recognize China's market economy status through the Sino-US Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade. China gives national treatment to foreign-funded enterprises operating in China according to law, including American enterprises.

3) The two sides agreed to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the financial field and give full play to the function of financial institutions to support the real economy. The United States welcomes foreign capital to invest in the US financial industry and promises to apply the same prudential supervision standards to banks, securities and fund management companies in China as in other countries.

4. The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in the reform of the international financial system. The two sides agreed to work together to ensure the positive results of the Toronto and Seoul summits.

5. The two sides encourage deepening bilateral economic cooperation and exchanges through the inter-departmental economic dialogue mechanism between the two countries. Including through the China-US Joint Commission on Science and Technology.