The real reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia
June 17, set off for a state visit to Serbia, Poland and Uzbekistan.
Professor Zhang Weiwei, Dean of China Research Institute of Fudan University and researcher of Spring and Autumn Development Strategy Research Institute, has observed the situation before and after the disintegration of Yugoslavia. Later in his article, he felt that the former Yugoslavia was a Pandora's box. Once opened, the problem will never end. Kosovars are worried about "Greater Serbia", Macedonia is worried about "Greater Albania", and in Greece next door, people are worried about "Greater Macedonia". This is the fate of a country, and the key steps cannot go wrong.
If the rise of China is to be smooth and brilliant, it is necessary to learn from the strengths and lessons of others. As far as my own experience is concerned, the field observation before and after the disintegration of Yugoslavia is an unforgettable experience, which is worth sharing with readers.
1July 1986, I visited Yugoslavia as an English translator. Our special plane took off from Bucharest, the Romanian capital, and arrived over Belgrade in less than an hour. Looking down from the plane, to be honest, we were surprised. There are spacious highways, countless speeding cars, and small villas with orange roofs dotted among green hills and fields. The contrast is too big.
Xie Li, China's ambassador to Yugoslavia at that time, was a senior diplomat, and he gave us a very concise introduction to Yugoslavia. He said that "Yugoslavia can be summarized by one, two, three, four, five, six and seven": one country, two languages (Russian alphabet and Latin alphabet), three languages (Serbian-Croatian, Macedonian and Slovenian), four religions (Orthodox Church, Catholic Church, Jesuits and Islam) and five ethnic groups (Serbia and Slovenia). Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia), 7 neighboring countries (Albania, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria, Italy).
At that time, the per capita housing area in Yugoslavia had reached 18 square meters, with an average of one car for every eight people. The market looks very prosperous. But there are hidden crises behind the prosperity, such as inflation and excessive decentralization of political power. At that time, the Yugoslav central government had almost only diplomatic and national defense powers. After the death of Tito 1980 on May 4, the Federal Government of Yugoslavia implemented the practice of collective rotation of heads of state, which failed to form a strong leadership core, and the six republics went their own way.
Tito's economic policy before his death also made serious mistakes. He always wants to be equal to all countries. He didn't act in accordance with economic laws and didn't form a unified and efficient domestic market. A Serbian scholar later told me that Tito's approach was that if Serbia wanted to build steel mills, other countries would also build them. As a result, a large number of "political factories" with low economic benefits have been established in Yugoslavia.
In retrospect, Deng Xiaoping has repeatedly stressed that China should open to the outside world, domestic market and international market, which is far-sighted. The so-called opening to the outside world and opening to the inside is to build a huge, unified and efficient domestic market. With the backing of this market, China has its own strength and capital, a strong economic foundation and a unified national institutional framework. Although there are still different degrees of local protectionism in China, after more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China is forming the largest unified market in the world, which is of great significance to the long-term stability of China and will be decisive for China to eventually surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.
In retrospect, 1986 Yugoslavia was still very open. The hall on the first floor of the Federal Building (1999 was hit by a NATO missile) to welcome foreign leaders to talk is arranged like a museum of modern art, displaying some large modernist paintings and abstract sculptures, and the effect is good. Displaying abstract works of art in a huge space gives people a visual shock, but the overall atmosphere is seamless and magnificent. The welcoming banquet in Mikulic, Yugoslavia is usually held not in state guesthouses or five-star hotels, but in the bar street where local artists, poets and petty bourgeoisie like to get together, which is roughly equivalent to Xintiandi in Shanghai and Shichahai in Beijing. At that time, there was no such fashionable place in China.
Welcome to hold a banquet in a bar restaurant called "Three Strawhats". Neither side made a formal speech. Everyone sat around several long wooden tables, drinking wine made in Yugoslavia, eating authentic Belgrade steak, and a middle-aged singer with a moustache and his small band of three played and sang for us. The singer sang many patriotic songs, one of which was Ode to Yugoslavia. An official of the Yugoslav Ministry of Foreign Affairs sitting next to me told me that in the days after Tito's death in 1980, wherever you go, people are singing this song and the radio has been playing it all the time. "We must unite. This is the entrustment of Tito's life. "
The moustached singer also played a self-created song for us, called "Welcome Visitors from afar". The lyrics are as follows: "Belgrade's heart is beating, because we have welcomed a friendly messenger from a great country far away. In this turbulent world, people are divided into good people and bad people, but all the people who come here are good people. Welcome, here are the best wishes of the Yugoslav people. Some poets have said that where friendship and love blossom, poverty and loneliness die. "
Severn translator is a young man who speaks Chinese very well. He translated the lyrics just right, like a beautiful essay, which pushed the atmosphere of our dinner to a climax. Everyone stood up and raised their glasses to wish "China-South Africa friendship lasts forever". To tell the truth, our generation has some Yugoslav plots. We all saw Walter defend Sarajevo. We all know that Yugoslav guerrillas are brave and good at fighting Deco. We all know that President Mao Zedong said, "Tito is as hard as iron." Similarly, most Yugoslavians know about the Long March of the Chinese Red Army and Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
Stills of Walter defending Sarajevo
Later, we set off for Slovenia, the richest province in Yugoslavia next to Austria, and lived in Tito's official residence.
I asked the hotel receptionist where you came from in Yugoslavia, and she gave me a big smile, "I'm from Yugoslavia". I suddenly realized that this was the result of long-term education in Yugoslavia, and everyone only said that they were Yugoslav. Don't say which * * * and the people. This is different from China. In China, you can say that you are from Hunan and Jiangxi, because everyone is from China, which goes without saying, but the concept of "Yugoslav" needs to be cultivated.
Later anti-war proved that South Africa's long-term political education could not compete with the nationalist sentiment incited by populists. Valkovic, Serbian Ambassador to the United Nations Office at Geneva, once said to me: "Looking back now, when Tito was alive, everyone's recognition of Yugoslavia was still very strong. If Tito can live a few more years, maybe we can complete the negotiations with the EU and let the whole Yugoslavia join the EU as a whole, and then the disintegration of the country and the war can probably be avoided. Of course, now everything is irreparable. "
The disintegration of Yugoslavia was first triggered by the economic crisis, with sustained inflation reaching 2400% at its peak, people's living standards dropping sharply, and various strikes continued. Since 1988, the government of Mikulic has been a bit shaky.
Malkovich succeeded Mikulic, and he had a better understanding of Yugoslavia. He once said that Yugoslavia made two mistakes in its past policies: First, it equated the market with capitalism and did not carry out more thorough market reform. Second, the entire Yugoslav economy has become a "contract" economy, not a "contract" formed in accordance with the laws of market economy, but an "autonomy agreement" reached by administrative means in accordance with some political principles. There are various agreements between workers and management, between * * * and the state, between central and local governments, and between enterprises. Once a link goes wrong, it will affect the economic operation of a large area or even the whole country. This connection is not an organic market, but artificial and administrative, and its centrifugal force is even greater than centripetal force.
President of the former Yugoslavia: Tito
Under the impact of the wave of "democratization" promoted by the West, the entire intelligentsia in Yugoslavia has completely accepted the western political discourse, and the core of this discourse is a naive dream: as long as the western political system is adopted, all the problems facing Yugoslavia will be solved. A radical revolutionary atmosphere was rapidly formed, and the local party departments of the South * * * Alliance also accepted western political discourse one after another, and successively launched more radical political reform programs.
1In March, 989, the Slovenian Union first proposed "ending the one-party system and implementing the multi-party system". After that, the whole political situation evolved out of control, and the central institutions of the federal government and SAARC were completely overhead. In fact, this is not a question of which one-party system or multi-party system is better. However, under the specific national conditions of Yugoslavia, promoting the political changes that the West hopes will definitely lead to the disintegration of the country and war, and the general public, even most intellectuals, did not see this at that time.
1in July, 1990, Yugoslavia passed the Law on Political Association and formally implemented the multi-party system. In Yugoslavia, whose population is only slightly larger than that of Shanghai, more than 200 political parties suddenly appeared, and the people who won the most votes were those who held high the banner of populism. Their slogans are "Slovenia belongs to Slovenes", "Croatia belongs to Croats" and "Kosovo belongs to Kosovars", and the slogans are becoming more and more intense and extreme. 199 1 year, from Slovenia, * * * and * * declared their independence and seceded from the Federation, and then the "civil war" in Yugoslavia broke out in an all-round way.
Germany was the first country to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. Although most EU member States still have doubts, their doubts are not because they are in favor of maintaining the reunification of Yugoslavia, but because they think that Croatia, which declared independence, still cannot protect the rights of local ethnic minorities (Serbs) on the human rights issue, which has caused a refugee flow of more than 200,000 Serbs moving to Serbia. However, Germany lobbied EU member states to recognize the independence of the two countries on the grounds that the EU wanted to be unified with the outside world.
Former Brandt of the Federal Republic of Germany knelt in front of the monument to the Jewish victims in Poland.
I later asked a senior diplomat in Serbia how to explain that Germany was so keen to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. He thought Slovenia was its close neighbor and Croatia was Germany's puppet country during World War II. Whether this view is valid or not, there is no doubt that European powers can sacrifice their own principles and the interests of other countries for their own interests.
I have a good impression on Germany in general, because Germany has seriously reflected on World War II, which is in sharp contrast with Japan's attitude. But on the issue of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, I think Germany's behavior is extremely irresponsible. Even if Yugoslavia should be disintegrated, it should not be disintegrated by opening Pandora's box. But Germany, or the whole west, rarely cares about the interests of others. When Slovenia and Croatia gained independence with the support of Germany and the West, the wars in Yugoslavia came and went like dominoes, which eventually led to more than 200,000 deaths, countless injuries and millions of displacements, creating the biggest human tragedy in Europe after World War II.
In fact, they all have a strong ideological complex: for many of them, today's China is an East Germany magnified dozens of times. They don't know, and they don't want to know, how many times the people of China have experienced drastic changes in their own history, and how many families have been destroyed every time. They don't understand why today's China people cherish the stability and development of their country so much, and they don't want to believe that this is the best time in China since 1949, and they don't want to accept the firm will and determination of China people to follow their own path.
Of course, China is neither the Soviet Union nor Yugoslavia, and their wishes are doomed to fail. As early as 1982, Deng Xiaoping said in "Beating the Floor": "No foreign country should expect China to be their vassal, and China should not expect to swallow the bitter fruit that harms our interests."
Twenty years later, I embarked on a journey of revisiting my old place. In July 2006, I took a long-distance bus from Zagreb, the capital of Croatia, to Belgrade, which once moved me. During the 20 years of rapid development in China, Serbia experienced one disaster after another, especially the Kosovo crisis, which led to intensive NATO bombing. When we arrived at the Belgrade coach station, it seemed to be a county-level bus station in China 20 years ago. It is crowded with people and dust, and there are a sea of people selling tickets. Six or seven people came to pull me in a taxi and asked for foreign currency. But after leaving the station, Belgrade still looks like a metropolis, with wide streets, beautiful European-style buildings, cafes all over the city and well-dressed men and women, but the shop windows and furnishings give people the feeling that they are greatly out of date, and there are ruins left by NATO bombing everywhere.
I put my luggage in the hotel, called a taxi and ran to the unforgettable "three straw hats" bar and restaurant, as if that place had retained a part of my youth, even though it was only a unique dinner.
I met the owner of the restaurant. When I talked about what happened 20 years ago, he said, "I know, I know, it was my father's time." So he went into the back room and took out three thick VIP signature books from a big red cupboard, which helped me find the signatures of American presidents George H.W. Bush and Tito. Pointing to Tito's handwriting, he sighed: "The old man has been to dinner several times. He is the person we miss most. After the death of the old man, our country went from bad to worse. "
He said: "From the whole 1970s to the early 1980s, it was our best day." He said regretfully, "Tito is a politician. Tito could not be elected by one person, one vote, but Milosevic was elected. In the end, the country is in the hands of these politicians. "
He also said indignantly: "Look, now Kosovo is going to be independent again." I can understand his feelings, just think about the great disaster that Serbs have experienced in these 20 years. But he finally smiled and said to me: "People who have experienced the war like one sentence:' I am still alive anyway.' You should feel happy when you are alive. "
He raised his glass and finished the bitter Serbian beer with me.
I met a Serbian electrical appliance businessman who had just returned from Shanghai in the hotel that day. He said: "Shanghai is changing with each passing day. You publish a new map of Shanghai every six months. We change our passports every six months, first Yugoslav passports, then Serbian and Montenegrin passports, and now it is likely to become Serbian passports, because Montenegro also declared independence a few days ago. " His exclamation really revealed the different fates and vicissitudes of China and Yugoslavia in the past 20 years.
When I took a bus from Belgrade to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the border inspection was very strict. The police in Bosnia and Herzegovina regard Serbs as thieves. There are four Serbs in our car. The police looked at their papers again and again, and then asked them to get off and open every piece of luggage. It took us 1 hour and 40 minutes, and the racial hatred has obviously not subsided. The flag of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the flag of the European Union are hung at the border checkpoint, which shows the influence of the European Union, and the euro is also used here. The car kept turning along the mountain road, and finally at dusk, I saw a large urban area and countless mosque towers under the mountain. I know Sarajevo has arrived.
I went to the old town of Sarajevo. The old city is antique and the streets are bustling. People seem to have forgotten the shadow of war. In fact, the shadow of war still exists. Nina, a girl from Bosnia and Herzegovina who is my tour guide, blushes when she talks about the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, pointing to the opposite hill. "The shells came from that place and landed in the town below. My uncle's family of four were killed on the spot."
Sarajevo
The ruins left by the war are still fresh in my mind. Many shops in the old city sell handicrafts made of shell casings and bullet casings. I bought three bullet casings with three different Islamic patterns engraved on them. I asked the shopkeeper what these patterns meant, and he said, one is peace, the other is happiness, and the other is love. It suddenly occurred to me that the prayers of the world are not such three wishes? But there are always people in the world who want to deprive people of this desire in various names, even at the expense of using force.
A scholar in Bosnia and Herzegovina said to me, "Never believe that people are rational. We all got along well during Tito's period, but later politicians incited us, people's national and religious emotions were mobilized, and people became irrational animals and killed each other. Yesterday was a friend, today is an enemy. " I walked into a painting shop in the old city, where a quarter of the portraits were Tito. I asked the shopkeeper, a wrinkled old man, "Do you still respect Tito?" He said: "Of course, a leader who really works for the people will always be remembered by the people."
Traces of war can also be seen in Croatia. The war also left a large number of unexploded mines on this land, which still threaten people's lives. Croats hate Milosevic. "We have been fighting for six years, and the number of casualties is still unknown. Our living standards have not yet returned to the level of Yugoslavia. " Croatian friend K Jun told me. The local newspaper said that the tomb of 138 was found, all of which were Croats killed by Serbs in the war, but I can't verify it. We passed the cathedral in Sagribu, where there were countless prayers and the church was crowded with people. K Jun said to me: "After the war, everyone had a shadow in his heart, and many people were unhappy. Everyone wants to find more comfort from religion, but despite the increasing number of religious believers, our suicide rate is still ahead of the world.
"In the evening, I had dinner with Mr. and Mrs. K. They said that Tito was still the most prestigious politician in all countries of the former Yugoslavia, including Slovenia, the earliest independent country. I asked, "What do you miss about Tito? "K Jun said:" I miss the tranquility and laziness at that time, and miss the free medical care, free education and paid vacation at that time. Tito, at that time, everything could be done except marching in the streets. "
His wife added: "And Tito's personal charm. The current leader is unparalleled. He is a leader of the * * * production party, with great self-esteem and personality. He smokes cigars, lives in a villa and wears a Swiss watch. " K Jun smiled cunningly: "There are stories about him and those beautiful actors." When we parted, K Jun gave me his latest business card. I noticed that the e-mail address above is Yugoslav domain name.
In Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, I talked with Mr. A, the general manager of Kosovo Television, who is studying in Belgrade. "At that time, my best friend was a Serb," he told me, "but then Milosevic engaged in great Serbia, and my wife and I were ethnic Albanians, so we lost our jobs. This persecution even involves children. Serbian children and Albanian children fight every day and finally have to separate and go to different schools, which is tantamount to apartheid. " He also told me that he and his wife once went to Macedonia on business, and when they returned to Kosovo, Serbian police guarding the border prohibited them from entering the country. They had to camp at the border and waited for three days and nights. When driving in Kosovo, you will see cemeteries from time to time, and the hills in Pristina are full of graves. "In this war, every family lost their loved ones, so it is impossible to restore harmony between Serbs and Albanians." He sighed and said to me.
We walked to the city center together and saw the Muslim mosque, the Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church. Ah Jun said, you see, different religions can live in peace. There is also a monument not far away, which consists of three tall pillars. He told me: "It was erected to commemorate Tito's last visit to Kosovo, symbolizing the unity of Albanians, Serbs and other ethnic groups. At that time, Kosovo Province was a model province where different ethnic groups and religions in Yugoslavia lived in harmony. " I know many Serbs and Albanians. Both ethnic groups have a common feature, enthusiasm and easy to make friends. If there is a good government that can uphold justice, the two ethnic groups can live in harmony, but under the instigation of populist politicians, a model province where ethnic groups live in harmony will soon become a place of ethnic hatred and killing.
When discussing this issue with the Serbs, they all stressed that the intervention of external forces led to the crisis. A Serbian scholar told me: "The so-called Liberation Army in Kosovo killed many Serbs at that time. Before 1998, the United States listed this organization as a terrorist organization, but in order to dismember Yugoslavia, the United States changed its policy and provided this organization with a lot of material support and personnel training. How much justice is there in international politics? Everything is a naked interest. " When he said this, his tone was very positive. Now Kosovo has officially declared its independence with the support of some major western countries, but Serbia, Russia and most countries in the world have not recognized it, which also means that the crisis caused by Yugoslavia's division is far from over.
In Skopje, the capital of Macedonia, I met a writer in her sixties. He said, "At that time, all Eastern Europe envied Yugoslavia. They are engaged in a rigid planned economy, and we can freely exchange dollars and buy and sell houses here. " The writer also met Tito. "At that time, Tito was nearly 80 years old, but his face was red and his body looked tough. He likes jazz and rich life, but he also tries to make his people rich. "
Our conversation turned to Macedonian politics. He said that Tito has political integrity, and what politicians lack most today is political integrity. "We like to make fun of the politicians here," he said. "Our latest joke is that we have to go to Brussels and ask to join the EU. The EU told him that you must establish a 100% democracy. We replied, it doesn't matter, we have established a democratic system of more than 1 10%. " He said that the biggest problem facing Macedonia today is the relationship between Macedonians and Albanians, who now account for one third of the population. "Maybe one day, they will merge with Kosovo. In this case, our country will disintegrate. "
The former Yugoslavia is Pandora's box. Once opened, the problem will never end. Kosovars are worried about "Greater Serbia", Macedonia is worried about "Greater Albania", and in Greece next door, people are worried about "Greater Macedonia".
This is the fate of a country, and the key steps cannot go wrong. There are too many cases in which a small step leads to eternal hatred, and Yugoslavia is a typical case. Many people in the West hope that a similar disintegration will occur in China. However, their wish will not come true, because safeguarding China's national unity is the firm will of the 654.38 billion+300 million China people. However, in the process of China's rise, we should think deeply about the lessons of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, draw useful lessons from them, and make our rise smoother and more exciting.