It's quite a story that the Cheonan incident has developed into this situation today! From South Korea's initial low-key handling to its sudden toughness today, it seems that the shadow of the second Korean War has been shrouded in smoke. Faced with this situation, what should China do, what should he think and what should he do? I think it's time to make a simple analysis.
First of all, who sank the Cheonan? I think the biggest suspects at present are North Korea and South Korea. Some people speculate that it is the United States and Japan, which is very unlikely. For example, if the United States and Japan play sinister means, the vicious impact will far outweigh the benefits they may get. As far as China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan and the United States are concerned, there is no time for war to break out at present, and the benefits brought by war are far less than the losses of all parties. Who will fight a war without benefits? Unless you are crazy.
As far as China, Korea, the United States and Japan are concerned, comparing North Korea may be the craziest one, but we should not underestimate Kim Jong Il's IQ. The purpose of North Korea's nuclear test is not for war. We can only say that the essence of North Korea's attitude is to constantly remind the world that it is a weak country that is not afraid of war, but its other most essential idea is that it does not want war. In the face of the decades-long blockade of North Korea by the United States, only putting all your eggs in one basket can delay the arrival of the war, just like the devastating weapon, the atomic bomb, which was born to stop the war. As the only country that used the atomic bomb in actual combat, its original purpose was to quickly end the war against Japan, or to extend the steps of completely suppressing the cold war opponent, the Soviet Union. Therefore, we are familiar with the statement that the greatest power of the atomic bomb lies in its launcher (Eisenhower). It can be said that North Korea realized that it was difficult for the United States to launch a war because of its nuclear test, so it dared to take risks. But if this method is used in the throat, it will continue to be "unappreciative" in conventional weapons. The possible result will be contrary to the strategic intention of the original nuclear test, and the probability of this war will be really great. Because of the concerns of India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel, the United States and other allies are undecided about the nuclear issue. But if North Korea does something out of line at other levels at this time, they will have sufficient excuse to attack North Korea through such standard questions and realize their dream of preventing North Korea from possessing nuclear weapons. So I said that if Kim Jong Il had won a commendable victory in challenging the US strategy and tactics in two nuclear tests, he would have done something stupid at this time today.
Analysis here, if my inference is correct, then South Korea, the United States and other countries are naturally aware of this situation. Therefore, if the United States has no countermeasures on the North Korean nuclear issue, it is likely to create friction, and then create tension on the Korean Peninsula, and even clamor as fiercely as possible, so that the whole world will think that there may be a war on the Korean Peninsula, put pressure on China, and force the China administration to make it difficult to express its position, and then negotiate privately and give the China administration some chips to exchange with North Korea. Looking back, we can see that before the Cheonan incident, the cooperation between China and North Korea in various aspects had already begun to emerge. It can be said that North Korea achieved its strategic goal when it pushed forward in a big way, and then it took the initiative to retreat. The strategic space gained by the atomic bomb hopes to go to the world through China, and North Korea's desire to develop its economy and improve people's livelihood is very urgent. However, the United States cannot tolerate that North Korea, which has been completely blocked for decades, is still dominated by the Kim family, so it must take measures to destroy this possible harmonious situation.
At this time, all kinds of events on the Korean peninsula have to be viewed with great suspicion.
However, if the possibility of the United States sinking the Cheonan ship to frame North Korea is really slim, will it use such bad tactics against a big country like the United States? If the truth of today's events is revealed 50 years later, or even longer, what impression will the future America give the world? It's not that stupid. It knows that paper can't wrap fire, and there is no windtight wall in the world. It's just that it will seize the opportunity with very clever tricks.
For example, the two countries themselves are uncontrollable and cause serious friction incidents, which will be used by the United States. After the armistice, there have been many more serious incidents on the Korean peninsula than this Cheonan ship. For example, North Korea shot and killed American troops who cut trees and captured American spy ships, all of which were more serious than this incident. This time it's not that bad. We saw the development of the incident, but public opinion says that this is the most serious incident since the confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK, and South Korea is likely to launch a war. I have to say, Koreans are not fools! From the analysis of what happened in the past, there are frequent military frictions between the DPRK and the ROK, and I don't know how many conflicts have occurred. Without the background of North Korea's nuclear test in recent years and the above analysis, the two of them would probably continue to punch and kick each other under the table and suffer dumb losses, rather than dare to escalate the situation to the point where China and the United States have to show their cards to the world. But now, with the rising posture of China, domestic public opinion is dissatisfied with the United States, and the situation of Sino-US cooperation friction needs to be further explored and clarified. Then, only when a relatively big event happens as a touchstone can we further clarify the future strategic planning. Therefore, whether it is the conventional conflict between the DPRK and the ROK or the risk of South Korea itself, it may be exploited by the big countries behind it.
Under these fogs, personally, what we have to do is to seriously question the assertion that the South Korean Cheonan was sunk by North Korea, or even completely deny it. From the perspective of national diplomacy, the government will naturally not make such a high-profile statement, but we grass people still have to think that the Cheonan ship is our own own own own goal. We can doubt that South Korea didn't have an accident on this Cheonan, but we can't explain it to South Korea, so we have to put the hat on someone else's North Korea. In view of the tense situation on the Korean peninsula for many years, it is necessary to reiterate that China does not want the situation to deteriorate and both sides should exercise restraint. Countries such as the United States and Japan should also stand at a higher level and calm down the escalation of the situation. Even though the Embassy of China was bombed and the plane was hit, it still kept a low profile and endured humiliation. Why can't the United States, the only superpower that has always advertised its desire for peace, treat North Korea rationally? It's just that a ship sank and dozens of people died. Compared with China, South Korea lost nine Niu Yi hairs in those years. If the United States still wants to threaten such a small country with the slogan of war under the uncertain situation, then we can say that the United States is the biggest terrorist country on this planet.
One more thing: I think the future direction of the Cheonan incident is to shout harder and then wave your fists. The Korean war will not happen. Let's wash and sleep.
All information in this answer comes from public sources and does not involve secrets.