First, the EU's economic development trend
In the short term, after entering 2 1 century, due to the economic recession in the United States, the EU economy is estimated to grow less than 1% in 2002. But in the long run, it is not a big problem for Europe to maintain an average growth rate of around 2% in the 1990s. In the next decade, it is unlikely that Europe's economic growth rate will surpass that of the United States, but the gap between Europe and the United States will narrow.
The EU's economic growth rate is not as fast as that of the United States, but its development is relatively stable. The inflation rate is generally below 2%. The proportion of fiscal deficit in the budget should be controlled within 3%. The proportion of domestic debt in GDP is lower than 60% stipulated by Mayo. The return on investment is generally 3-4%. In the next few years, the above individual indicators may break through. This possibility will increase in a period of time after the EU's eastward expansion. But in the next decade, the EU economy as a whole will maintain steady growth. 2 1 century, Europe is an important factor to maintain the steady growth of the world economy.
Second, about the construction of a unified market.
So far, the EU has made decisive progress in building a unified market. The EU has basically established a unified internal market. 199965438+1October1February 2002, the euro came out and entered the circulation field, further developing the integration process.
On the other hand, we have to see that the construction of the EU single market is a long and complicated process. The EU single market has not yet been fully formed.
1958 after the establishment of the European union, for a long time, its main focus was on the construction of customs union and the implementation of agricultural policies. By the mid-1980s, Europe had made great progress in these two aspects, but it was still an independent market divided by 12.
1In June 1985, the European Union adopted the white paper "Completing the Internal Market" and made a plan to complete the unification of the internal market before the end of 1992. In February of the same year, 65438+, the European Council drafted the European Unified Document, which set the goal of 1992 to complete the construction of the unified market in the form of amending and supplementing the Treaty of Rome, thus ensuring the construction of the unified market legally and organizationally. The EU has also enacted 286 pieces of legislation to remove various non-tariff barriers that hinder the free flow of goods, people, services and capital between 12 countries. By the end of 1992, 95% of these legislations had been passed, and 85% of them had been transformed into the legislation of member countries. (Note: Wu Yikang and Zhou Jianping, eds.: Comparison of Regional International Economic Integration, Economic Science Press, 1994, p. 106. Under this circumstance, the European Union announced the establishment of a unified internal market on June 1 99365438+1October1,which basically eliminated the non-tariff barriers that hindered the free flow of goods, people, services and capital. With the development of the European Union, especially the advent of the single currency euro and its formal entry into the circulation field, it marks a historic breakthrough in the construction of the unified internal market of the European Union.
However, the EU's comprehensive unified market has not been established.
First of all, the European Commission published a special report on April 17, 2006, and evaluated the situation of market mechanism reform in 15 member countries according to the goal of unified market: only 20 of the 36 quantifiable projects, that is, 55% of the projects can be completed as scheduled before June 5438+0, 2006. (Note: Quoted from Qiu Yuanlun: The prospect of the euro mainly depends on three factors, World Economic Yearbook 200 1-2002. According to the statistics of relevant EU institutions, only 70% of the EU 1339 "Uniform Market Rules" have been transformed by member countries according to the rules, and 30% have not yet become domestic legislation of member countries. Even if it has been translated into domestic legislation, it will take time to really implement and implement it.
Secondly, according to the commitment made at the Lisbon Summit in March 2000, the EU will not open the telecommunications and power markets among its member countries before 2003, and implement unified rules and regulations in these two fields.
Third, the Lisbon Summit also stipulated that a unified financial and capital market should be established in 2005, and a unified "market supervision committee" should be established before that. At present, there are more than 40 financial regulatory agencies within the EU. (Note: Zheng Bingwen, editor-in-chief: European Development Report 200 1-2002, Social Sciences Academic Press, 2002, p. 5 1 page. ) they are fragmented and it is difficult to form a unified financial market.
Fourth, at present, there is no unified labor market within the EU, and the pension systems of various countries are not unified. In order to move freely, workers must enjoy the same rights and social security, such as medical care and retirement, no matter where they work. At present, there are still many problems in this regard within the EU.
Fifth, at the enterprise level, the profit tax system of EU member states is far from uniform. In June, 2002, when the author visited Brussels, scholars from the European Union produced a thick new book, How to Implement Profits Tax in the European Union, which put forward various implementation plans for unifying profits tax in the future, and thought that only by solving these problems can a truly unified commodity market finally be formed.
Now it seems that the process of establishing a unified market in Europe is far more complicated than originally thought. The unified market was not built on a certain day, and it was not built when it was announced. This is a dynamic integration process. The role of European economic integration in promoting economic growth has gradually emerged in this process.
Third, the role of the euro
When 1999 65438+ 10/0/Euro came out, it was predicted that the Euro would soon challenge the US dollar, thus ending the hegemony of the US dollar in the international monetary system. But since then, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar has been falling. At this time, people questioned the role of the euro and its position in the international monetary system. These views are biased.
The advent and circulation of the euro has had a long-term and far-reaching impact on international economy and politics, especially on the international monetary system. It makes the international monetary system begin to develop in a diversified direction. In 200 1 year, the foreign trade volume settled in euros accounted for about 15% of the total world trade, and the proportion of euros in the world official foreign exchange reserves exceeded 12%. In the first quarter of 200 1 2000, although the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was at a low level, the proportion of euro bonds in international bond markets was about 47%, which exceeded the proportion of US dollar bonds. This was impossible for any European currency before the euro appeared.
However, the introduction of the euro is not to compete with the US dollar for the leadership of the international monetary system, but to meet the internal needs of European integration. Therefore, to judge the success or failure of the euro, we should not first look at whether its exchange rate against the US dollar is rising or falling, but at its role in promoting the process of European integration:
Further improved the construction of the European unified market. The advent of the euro and its entry into the circulation field have consolidated the construction of a unified market and enhanced and improved the unity and degree of the European market. It also helps to establish a unified European financial market;
Enhance residents' sense of identity with European unity. When the euro entered the circulation field, it entered the daily life of ordinary people. The European public generally believes: "The euro makes us deeply feel that we are Europeans." This sense of identity is very important for further promoting European integration;
It eliminates the exchange rate risk among euro zone countries and becomes an important stabilizing factor for European economic development.
It has further promoted the price convergence of euro zone countries and strengthened fair competition within the EU. After the goods in the euro zone countries are uniformly priced in euros, consumers can directly compare the commodity prices of 12 countries in the region, which is not only conducive to promoting the free flow and rational allocation of production factors in the region, but also conducive to the gradual convergence of commodity prices among countries and to open and fair competition among EU countries.
It has promoted the development of tourism in the euro zone countries and saved a lot of money exchange fees.
In essence, the above-mentioned impact of the advent and circulation of the euro on the EU economy is not affected by the change of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar. No matter whether the euro appreciates or depreciates against the US dollar, the above-mentioned influence of the euro on the EU economy will continue to exist. After the advent of the euro, its exchange rate against the US dollar fell step by step, but it was quite calm within the EU. The international status of the euro has not changed significantly because of the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar. During the period of 1999-200 1, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar once fell to the level of 1 euro against US$ 0.82, but it did not change the status of the euro as one of the major international currencies. What's more, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has not been falling all the time, but it showed an upward trend in 2002, with 1 euro exchanged for 1 more US dollars. Generally speaking, the foreign trade volume settled in euros is also expanding. So far, the euro has not appeared for a long time. It needs a growing process. It is only a matter of time before the euro challenges the dollar. It is debatable to overemphasize the rise and fall of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar, or to completely evaluate the international monetary status of the euro by this standard.
Four. Problems in EU's Economic Development
All kinds of contradictions and problems in the EU's economic development are concentrated in one point, that is, the growth rate is not high and the vitality is insufficient. So this situation is mainly due to the following reasons:
1. The social and economic system emphasizes justice and fairness, while paying insufficient attention to efficiency.
Among EU member states, Germany has always been regarded as the locomotive of European economic growth. Germany's social market economy system takes the free competition system based on private ownership as its core and pillar. Erhard, the founder of social market economy, emphasized that competition is the "most inherent requirement" of market economy. (Note: See Gu: The Operating Mechanism of Social Market Economy in Germany, Wuhan Publishing House, 1999, Chapter 1; V Klaus: Social Market Economy, published by Luer Harder Foundation, Chapter 2. At the same time, the social market economy emphasizes that economic policies should pay equal attention to "economy" and "society", and the developed social security system should be used to balance the social injustice brought about by free competition and capital distribution. 1On June 6, 1997, the Amsterdam Treaty signed by the EU 15 heads of state regarded "employment and civil rights as the core tasks of the EU" and was regarded as one of the "basic purposes" of the EU. (Note: See Yang Weiguo: On the Formation of Euro, Social Sciences Academic Press, 2002, p. 78. Under the guidance of this idea, many problems such as excessive social welfare measures and excessive welfare burden have appeared in European countries. At the end of 1990s, the average social welfare expenditure in the EU accounted for 28% of GDP, including 33.7% in Germany 1999, 33.3% in Sweden 1998, 30.5% in France and 30% in Denmark. (Note: Quoted from Qiu Yuanlun: Reform in Europe: Theoretical Analysis and Practical Progress, February 2002. Researchers at the French Institute of International Relations said: "In the past 20 years, five people in France worked to support one person, and now one person works to support two or three people. Once people lose their jobs, their initial subsidies are almost the same as those they get at work. You can still get 60% of your salary after one year. About two-thirds of families in France can enjoy low-rent housing subsidies. Sometimes, a person gets more income than the kinetic energy of labor without working. " As a result, as British Prime Minister Tony Blair said, they "only know how to take money from the welfare state, but they have no sense of responsibility for the society in which they live".
2. Poor macro-control.
Monetary policy is the main means for the EU to implement macro-control on the economy. The EU emphasizes that monetary policy "should not serve short-term economic goals", but should take "stabilizing the currency value" as the primary goal. This is also the policy direction that the European Central Bank adheres to. According to the Maastricht Treaty, the European Central Bank is an independent institution independent of other EU institutions and member governments. Its personnel appointment, removal and operation have great independence, and its goal is to maintain "price stability" and "moderate" economic growth in member countries.
It should be said that up to now, the EU's macro-control mechanism for the economy has been established and improved in the process of integration, which inevitably brings two problems. First, the EU's economic regulation aims at serving the economies of member countries to reach the same standard, otherwise it will be difficult to bring member countries with uneven economic development levels and different macroeconomic policies into the EU. At this time, if we emphasize the growth rate, it will inevitably further widen the differences among member States and add more difficulties to the establishment of the European Union. Therefore, all member countries must reduce financial expenditure and limit the leverage of finance in stimulating economic growth. In the long run, stability will fundamentally promote economic growth, but in the short term, strict requirements for stability will limit investment in the economy and limit the increase in growth rate. Second, the supervision efficiency is not high. The contradiction between macro-control at the EU level and the different interests of member States often makes member States not implement relevant EU decisions. This greatly affects the efficiency of regulation and control, and ultimately affects economic growth. On July 20, 2002, European Commission President Prodi said: "There are loopholes in the EU's economic system at present." "Even the resolution made by the European Commission through the meeting of finance ministers lacks the necessary binding force." He believes that this situation must change. (Note: Xinhua News Agency, Berlin, July 20th, 2002. )
3. Insufficient investment in science and technology, and internal scientific research cooperation needs to be strengthened.
The gap between the economic growth rate of the EU and that of the United States is, to a great extent, caused by the gap between investment in science and technology and cooperation in scientific research. Fei Biskan, a member of the European Commission in charge of scientific research, pointed out that the EU attaches far less importance to science and technology than the United States and Japan. The average investment in scientific research in EU member countries only accounts for 1.8% of GDP, while the investment in scientific research in the United States and Japan has accounted for 2.8% and 2.9% of GDP respectively. There is a popular saying in European scientific and technological circles that it is more difficult for French scientists to work in the laboratory in Munich, Germany than in MIT. How to unite and concentrate the scientific research strength of the whole EU and further attach importance to scientific research is an important task before the EU. (Note: Xinhua News Agency, Paris, February 26th, 2000. )
4. Rigid labor market affects the enthusiasm of employers and employees.
There are relatively strong trade union organizations in EU countries. Once an employer hires a worker, it is difficult to dismiss him easily. The wages of employees are generally determined by trade unions and employers' associations through "independent consultation" without government intervention. Therefore, employers are very cautious when recruiting people, which affects the increase of employment opportunities. Once employees are employed, they are less worried about being fired, which will affect their enthusiasm.
5. Germany paid a huge price for "unification", which weakened the locomotive function of EU's economic growth.
Germany spends 5% of GDP every year on the reconstruction of the eastern region. Professor Klaus of the German Ministry of Economic Affairs believes that Germany will still pay a heavy price for digesting the western region in the next 10- 15 years. At present, a large number of young people in eastern Germany are moving to the west, resulting in "empty people" in the east, but the employment situation in the west has become particularly severe. Other EU member states also have different forms of structural unemployment. This is an important reason why the unemployment problem in the EU is difficult to solve.
6. Building a unified internal market is not only beneficial to export, but also affects the improvement of competitiveness.
The construction of European single market provides a relatively stable internal market for enterprises in member countries, which is conducive to the economic growth of the European Union. However, the long-term over-reliance on the regional internal market has limited the promotion of enterprise competitiveness.
7. The government restricts enterprises too much, which affects the enthusiasm of enterprises.
European countries are famous for their high welfare and high taxes. High taxes include two parts. First, there are many taxes and high tax rates levied on individual residents. For example, at the end of 2000, the highest personal income tax rate in France was as high as 54%. Second, the corporate tax burden is heavy. For example, at the end of last century, the corporate tax in France reached 37%, while in Italy it was 4 1.3%. (Note: Quoted from Qiu Yuanlun: Reform in Europe: Theoretical Analysis and Practical Progress, February 2002. The tax burden has seriously affected the investment ability and innovation ability of enterprises.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) The future reform of the European Union.
In the second half of the 20th century, Europe mainly did one thing, that is, integration. In the first half of the 20th century, Europe faced three major events: eastward expansion, deepening political and economic integration and internal reform. Among the three, internal reform is the foundation.
Judging from the current situation, the reform of the EU has three characteristics.
First, this reform is carried out from top to bottom, and the core is to solve the problem of lack of vitality in the EU system.
In the past half century, although Europe has made historic progress in integration, it has never solved the problem of great inertia and lack of vitality in European society. It makes Europe face a series of new challenges in the new century. It is these difficulties and problems that force the EU to further put the issue of internal reform on the agenda.
In 2000, the EU held a summit meeting in Lisbon and formulated a long-term social and economic development plan for the EU. In March, 20001,the EU held a special summit in Stockholm to discuss how to implement the long-term plan formulated at the Lisbon meeting. The meeting held that in order to implement the strategic objectives set by the Lisbon Conference, the EU must take decisive and effective measures in four aspects: employment, economic reform, scientific research and technological innovation, and enhancing social cohesion. These problems involve that the EU must further establish or improve a series of relevant systems, standards, institutions, laws and policies, and transmit and implement them to all member States. In order to further establish a unified market mechanism, the EU made a five-year plan at the Helsinki Summit held in 1999. The Lisbon Summit in 2000 formulated specific reform plans, which required countries to implement them item by item.
Second, the coverage of the reform is very wide. This is a comprehensive reform, not a partial reform.
Explaining the proposal submitted by the European Commission to the Stockholm Summit in March 20001,European Commission President Prodi said that although the unemployment rate in Europe has declined, there are still140,000 people without jobs in the EU. Although the same market has existed for many years, the unified market in key areas such as telecommunications, energy, transportation, postal services and government procurement is far from being formed; Although the EU's high-tech investment has greatly increased, there is still a considerable gap compared with the United States. Although the economies of member countries have maintained a high growth rate, the problems of poverty and uneven development within the EU still exist. The Stockholm special summit confirmed that in order to solve these problems, the EU must take measures in ten aspects, such as fully opening the labor market. These measures involve not only the reform of economic structure and economic system, but also the reform of social problems; It involves not only the reform in the field of production, but also the reform in the field of service and finance, involving both macro-level issues and many issues at the enterprise level. This is a comprehensive reform. 2 1 century, the focus of EU enterprise reform is not to privatize the few remaining state-owned enterprises, but to relax the government's restrictions and constraints on private large and medium-sized enterprises, and encourage enterprises to establish various incentive mechanisms to improve their competitiveness.
Third, the scope of reform is relatively large, involving some deep-seated problems accumulated over the years.
For example, in the reform of the pension system, some countries in the European Union have begun to attach importance to the establishment of private supplementary pensions in addition to statutory pensions. On the agricultural issue, the reform plan adopted in July 2002 10 is called "radical" reform plan. For many years, farmers in Europe have been subsidized according to their agricultural output. After the reform, this practice will be stopped and replaced by a fixed amount of subsidies, and the direct subsidies enjoyed by farmers will be decoupled from agricultural output.
On the development prospect of the European Union by intransitive verbs
Europe should go its own way and establish a capitalism that is neither American nor traditional Europe.
Capitalism in Europe has always been called "capitalism in social market economy", which is different from "capitalism in free market economy" in the United States. Europe is reforming, but it will not fundamentally give up its values and social development model. This has both historical and practical reasons. Historically, Europe is the hometown and birthplace of bourgeois enlightenment, scientific socialism theory and scientific socialism movement. Some time before World War II, Europe faced the attack of Nazi "socialism" and Soviet socialism. In the early days after World War II, the development of the worldwide socialist movement once posed a real threat to the survival of the European capitalist system, and ideas such as "people's capitalism" once spread widely in Europe. The Social Democratic Party has always been an important political force in Europe. These are the differences between Europe and America. The purpose of European reform is to get rid of the lack of vitality and competitiveness of the European social and economic system, rather than copying the American social and economic model and fully accepting American culture and values. Take the reform of social welfare system as an example. Europe does not want to give up the basic concept and core part of the social welfare system, but to put an end to abuse and eliminate the excessive social welfare burden, so that "those who fail to do their best and do their duty ... lose their original social solidarity, that is, the right of state funding". The reform in Europe is imperative, but it needs a long process. Like integration, reform will succeed, but the process is tortuous. The difficulties will mainly come from three aspects: First, the deeper the reform, the more the member States are required to transfer more national sovereignty to the EU, and more the interests of different interest groups of member States will be touched, which will lead to more contradictions and conflicts of interest. Second, such reform is a huge innovation, and there is no experience in history to learn from. Any important mistake will bring serious consequences. Third, the EU is in the process of enlargement. In June 5438+February 2002, the EU Summit decided to accept 10 new member states. These 10 candidates have completed the application procedures for joining the EU and will become full members of the EU in 2004. The economic and social development level of new members is even more uneven. Their current overall level is not as good as that of Italy and other "southern countries" before joining the EU. The eastward expansion will bring new difficulties to the EU. But eastward expansion is imperative. It is estimated that in the next 10 year, the EU will have 27 to 28 member states. By then, the EU's land area will reach 4 million square kilometers, its population will exceed 500 million, and its GDP will exceed 1 1 trillion dollars. This will rewrite the political map of Europe and have a major impact on the world pattern.
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