1. is the target with the best qualification and the strongest theme correlation in the wind power industry. The issuance scale is large (30 billion), the debt rating is AA+, the debt base is relatively protective, the price is weak, and the overall purchase safety buffer is good.
2. In terms of pricing, the current price of energy-saving shares is 3.92 yuan, and the corresponding convertible bond parity is 96.79 yuan. Referring to similar securities such as Wuxi and Intel, judging from the positive fundamentals of stock prices, we predict that the parity premium rate of energy-saving convertible bonds on the first day of listing is around 15%, and the corresponding price is around 1 1 yuan.
3. The high-quality wind power operation platform of central enterprises has a stable industry-leading attribute, and the issuance of debt-to-equity swaps helps the expansion and acceleration of energy-saving wind power. It is a wind power operation platform under the central enterprises in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection in China, and the number and scale of projects are leading in the industry.
4. From the industry point of view, in recent years, leading wind power operators have benefited from scale and scale, and power costs have continued to decline. At the same time, the operating income can still maintain a high level, and the profit improvement trend is obvious. Coupled with the improvement of "abandoning wind and limiting electricity", the overall constraint of the industry is more conducive to the development of leading enterprises.
5. From the company's point of view, 2 1H 1 express revenue/net profit+32.38/58.09% year-on-year. Huatai Public Group's first cover report on wind power energy conservation released on June 2 1 shows that the company's highlights are: 1) The proportion of regional sources with high electricity prices has increased, and the growth of new grid-connected installed capacity has driven performance; 2) Providing financial guarantee for issuing convertible bonds to help subsequent expansion; 3) Strengthen scientific and technological research and development to hedge the future decline of subsidies. The risk of declining competitiveness.
6. In the intermediate value style, the valuation of positive stocks is lower than that of comparable companies. Concerned about the wind power policy, the exit risk and energy-saving stocks belong to the utilities subdivided by wind power, with a total market value of 654.38+0.96 billion yuan. The annual volatility (100 cycle) of the stock price is 4 1.53, and the asset-liability ratio is 202 1Q 1 68.68%, which belongs to the middle level.
7. Theoretically, the disk value method is more suitable for PB valuation. At present, the share price of energy-saving shares is 3.92 yuan, with PBLF/2021E (consensus expected by Wind) 1.87x/ 1.64x, and the valuation is in the historical median. We choose Xintian Green Energy (PBLF3.37x), Zhong Min Energy (2.35x) and Jiaze Xinneng (2. 14x) as comparable companies, and their energy saving estimates are obviously lower than those of comparable companies. Judging from the driving force of favorable stocks, the current policy situation is good, > the project landing and network access exceeded expectations, > "abandoning wind and limiting electricity" has improved. In terms of risks, the main concerns are: 1) industrial policy risks, such as the pace and speed of retreat exceeding expectations; 2) Upstream equipment price and downstream electricity price fluctuation.
8. Analysis of the article: The coupon rate of energy-saving convertible bonds with high rating, good debt guarantee, low parity and overall application of safety buffer are 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.5%, 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, and the redemption price at maturity is1/kl. The YTM corresponding to the face value is 2.31%; The rating of the bond/target is AA+/AA+ (Dagong International). The yield to maturity expected discount rate of the above six-year AA short-term notes is 3.83% (201/715), and the debt reserve value is 9 1.69 yuan, which is highly protective to the debt reserve price. The revised terms are [15/30,85%], conditional redemption terms [15/30, 130%], and conditional resale terms [two years, 30,70%]. The current share price is 3.92 yuan, corresponding to a parity of 96.79 yuan. The terms of this coupon are formulated in a prescribed way. On the whole, the safety buffer of energy-saving convertible bonds is better.
9. Inventory positioning analysis:
At present, the share price of energy-saving wind power is 3.92 yuan, and the corresponding par price is 96.79 yuan. It can be seen that Wuxi (equity 97.86 yuan, fair price premium rate 16. 14%) and Intel (96. 1 1 yuan, 12.99%) have the same scale and rating. We believe that: 1) Energy-saving convertible bonds have a high rating, the issuance scale is not small, and the company has no pledge.