Perry Link once published an article "China: the python on the chandelier" in the New York Book Review.

There is a chandelier in your living room. One day, you looked up and saw a boa constrictor on the lamp.

It is there, quietly, volatilizing violence into the air, arousing inner fear and quietly forcing you to yield. There is only one message: what to do is up to you (the message is "you decide". It's just there, everyone knows, but it's not clear what the proof is).

You are likely to collapse under pressure and do what you want.

As for what this big snake refers to in Teacher Lin's article, a thousand words are omitted here. If you can climb the wall, the link is here. But today, this metaphor also applies to the dollar.

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Since the beginning of the year, there has been a feeling of resignation all over the world.

Selling things to foreigners, working hard for a whole year, 5% of the profits are squeezed out through my teeth, and the RMB jumps vertically in the new year and returns to before liberation overnight. Small enterprises are poor, the currency is strong, they dare not raise prices, the currency is weak, and people bargain. When it becomes a listed company, the dollar will become a meat cutter hidden in the report. Even for a country, the won rose by single digits, and the quarterly increase of exports immediately hit a 33-year low.

If your assets are calculated in dollars, you can certainly understand why Mr. Wang Jianlin shed tears at the annual meeting: thank the country and thank the party. If the overseas assets were not cleared at the beginning, the dollar would fall by 10%, which would be a life-and-death disaster.

Teacher Jianlin is melodramatic. He can throw. What if you can't throw it? A year ago and a year later, China's American debt disappeared out of thin air, amounting to 800 billion RMB, which was enough for the United States to add another Ford aircraft carrier fleet, and there was still money left after three trips around the South China Sea: it was changed from 6.96 to 6.30.

And teammates Japan and Saudi Arabia. While being slashed by the depreciation of the US dollar, I wiped my tears and continued to buy US debt. Throw it away? Want to throw it? Can you throw it?

You can only accept it.

At the same time, the Korean stock market hit a new high, Thailand's stock market hit a new high, Taiwan Province's stock market hit a new high, and the worse exports hit a new high.

Is the new high not good?

There is a classic case that is still being staged in Thailand: whenever the Thai people hear such keywords as "the dollar depreciates and the Thai baht rises", foreign capital has been involved in the three cities for half a year. The stock market rose by 20%, the Thai baht rose by 10%, 20% in the eyes of the Thai people and 30% in the eyes of others; Thai people feel that the water temperature is very comfortable, so they have to turn off the fire and retreat: this is the international version of cutting leeks. The players in the market are not just Thais who take Thai baht. When foreigners use the Thai baht to appreciate, the Thai people feel nothing.

Similarly, SDR, MSCI, foreigners use my currency more and more, and they will love RMB more and more. Stocks, bonds, commodities, houses, especially cattle, will be stolen by appreciation.

Who the hell stole it? At the other end of this balance is the dollar.

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The Polish philosopher Korzybski, Greenspan's spiritual mentor, said: Language is not what it stands for, but that people always use simplification and abstraction to understand the world.

This is especially true in financial markets: red and green, "up" and "down", "strong" and "weak", with emotional words, can cover all the complicated designs and calculations behind them.

If you put the word "derogatory" on the dollar, you will feel that it is basically terminally ill now: how bad 20 17 is, and it has fallen all the way10%; What a terrible year! It started at 20 18, and fell by 4%. Experts say that the president is hopeless because of poor economic data, uncertain political prospects and wrong monetary policy.

However, Asian currencies have risen in an all-round way, and the renminbi is in full swing: win or win.

What about the reality of erasing emotions?

Shrinking the table, reducing taxes, and depreciating the dollar at the same time may seem like abandoning the child, but it is really the first time, and the price is borne by the whole world: if you are Apple, what better time is there than now to change the money earned overseas into dollars and take the red envelope home? If you are Fuyao, the dollar is cheap, tax cuts, and investment entities, is there a better time than now? And if you want to speculate, other currencies in the world are appreciating, and it's better to go anywhere than to come to the United States.

Get rid of virtual reality without even shouting slogans.

Teacher Trump is also more and more like Reagan: big taxes, big infrastructure, big trade and big space. Let the United States be stronger, and fight the currency war first. The air force is the exchange rate, the army is the tariff, and the special forces are over 30 1: hasn't the war already begun?

Each of us is just the result.

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Our dollars, your question.

If you bury your head in the sand, will this big snake swim by itself?

Of course not. Why change the international monetary system and give up the free meal tickets for so many years?

And this method of earning meal tickets, more than two thousand years ago, our teacher Guan Zhong has done it many times:

Spring and autumn. Qi provoked the great task of respecting the king and resisting foreign countries, including changing the empty finances of the Zhou Dynasty. Where to find it? Teacher Guan Zhong held out three fingers:

The first step: "white thatch" in Jianghuai area. Please send troops to surround the land and control it.

Step 2: Send a message: If you want to attend the sacrifice of Mount Tai, you should bring your own mat made of white grass in Jianghuai. If there is no mat, or it is not made of white grass, please leave and cancel your membership.

Step 3: The state sent people to Jianghuai to get thatched mats, and the army had been waiting there for a long time: in exchange for thatched grass and gold, a bundle of grass was 120 yuan.

Within three days, the world's gold will be automatically returned to the state treasury, and the pots and pans will be full, and there will be no worries for ten years.

Just like the Zhou Dynasty, the national treasury was empty, and the brand-new country of the United States went bankrupt from the founding of the People's Republic of China. With the endless stalemate with Britain, Mr. Washington had to raise his own military expenses: IOUs to France and the Netherlands later became US Treasury bonds. 1783 After the American War of Independence, the number of IOUs exceeded 50 million.

How to return it?

Teacher Hamilton appeared: since there is no money to pay off debts, try to put them behind you and put them in your pocket. Appropriate debt is a gift to the country.

Like Guan Zhong, he also extended three fingers to Congress:

Step 1: Issue new coins. Exchange old dollars at face value of one to one. Old coins exit and new coins enter.

Step 2: The Ministry of Finance issues new bonds, stipulating that new bonds can only be purchased with new coins. Let the newly issued new coins flow back to the Ministry of Finance.

Step 3: The Ministry of Finance repurchased all bonds and IOUs during the war with the new currency. New debts are exchanged for old debts, and the national credit is completely new.

In less than a year, the new debt has "repaid" 60% of the old debt, so it is good to borrow the new and return the old. As you know, this is the "Hamilton revolving door".

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This revolving door turns as soon as it turns 160 years.

Looking at the world again, the pound has lost the pride of the empire, and the anchor of the whole world has become a by-product of its own economic, political and military hegemony: the Bretton Woods system.

You can also recite: the dollar is pegged to gold, and other currencies are pegged to the dollar.

Twenty years later, the United States has become the Zhou Dynasty of that year: Vietnam War quagmire, inflation hit six, GDP was negative one, current account deficit, gold reserves fell by 30%, and the dollar depreciated endlessly. At this rate, it is not far from waste paper.

French teacher Charles de Gaulle is a clever man. Seeing that the dollar reserves in his hand were inexplicably gone, he quickly held a press conference of thousands of people, denouncing the United States as a "tearless deficit" and calling for a return to the gold standard. While his teammates were busy changing gold into dollars, Mr. de Gaulle insisted on removing it from gold at the official price, so in the sky of 1965 in the United States, there appeared the spectacle of French planes moving gold. I moved for three years.

If French planes continue to fly, there may be no federal government in the world. 197 1 On the anniversary of Japan's surrender, the Nixon earthquake came.

This time, what the Japanese call a "tornado in a typhoon" appeared. Mr Connery, the chief architect, was sitting in the back seat when Kennedy was stabbed. Being shot twice, Mr Connery has a new world outlook: "Whoever wants to squeeze me, I will squeeze him first".

Teacher Connery took two cards on the front table of the French plane: all imports were unilaterally levied 10% tariff, and foreign aid was cut off 10%. You want to move the gold? Sorry, the gold exchange window is closed. Finally, put down the famous saying "our dollar, your problem" and knock the last nail on the coffin of Boothon system. "Santa Claus is dead", the global monetary order, Americans do not care.

Next, Guan Zhong trilogy:

The first step: sign a "Petrodollars" agreement with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi oil will be labeled as dollars. Want oil? White thatch changes.

Step 2: The money from selling oil will be exchanged for US Treasury bonds and US weapons: it will be recycled and returned to the account of Bank of America.

Step 3: hold parties in the Middle East from time to time and organize an expensive war: invite everyone to accept the dollar or accept the war. Let the dollar flow.

Teacher Kissinger explained this business model very straightforwardly: "If you control oil, you control the world economy;" Control the currency, and you control the whole earth. "

White thatch of the world. Exchange dollars for your goods and resources, and American debt for your wealth and savings. If you can't pay your debts, change the numbers on the IOUs. If you step into the dollar debt trap and have no cards to play, you can only be laid off honestly. For example, Venezuela at this time.

At this point, the white note of that year has become the core standard of banks in various countries. It is not gold that stabilizes China's core assets, but US Treasury bonds. Who decides whether RMB will be issued or not? American debt. Nobody talks about whose dollar it is. Like a boa constrictor on a lamp. I don't know when it will spit out the letter, which has become a problem for everyone under the lamp.

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Teacher Mundell said: The problem with this world money machine now is that you must expect Americans to control the printing machines in their hands.

In the same way, teacher Aristotle said more than 2500 years ago: there is nothing wrong with sovereign currency, provided that the king can be as perfect as God.

Is this possible? Of course not. Nobody wants to be God. So the above cycle will keep repeating.

After two turns, the financial crisis in 2008 almost pulled this boa constrictor off the chandelier.

This time, it's Mr Bernanke. When I first took office, I told you that there was a button in the basement of the Federal Reserve that could be printed at any time. When Yellen left office, the basement was full.

In the next decade, it will be a G-0 world, and no one will take the lead. Everyone is waiting for a new world order, a new money-making machine. Seeing that China and Russia are speeding up the collection of gold and tacitly going to dollarization, will there still be a rice flag on this new machine?

Fortunately or unfortunately, virtual currency appeared.

We are closing the door, and the United States is opening the door: the Wall Street team that used to run oil capital is now busy drawing a new chessboard that is invisible and intangible: there are legal futures, virtual currency repurchase and financing currency. Everyone began to have golden feelings for this invisible figure.

The snake is still the snake, but where is the lamp?