After 2002, the trend of each grain is a bit "eight immortals crossing the sea, each showing its magical powers". We should focus on corn and soybeans, because they love each other and kill each other in 2022. What will happen in 2023?
First of all, the new agricultural concept holds that the key word of policy-oriented soybean in 2023 is "boosting".
Looking back on 2022, under the guidance of the policy of "expanding soybean planting", China's soybean planting area reached 10243 thousand hectares, an increase of 1843 thousand hectares over the previous year, with a growth rate of 21.7%; The total soybean output reached 20.29 million tons, an increase of 3.89 million tons or 23.7% over the previous year.
The effect of soybean production expansion exceeded expectations, and the self-sufficiency rate increased by 3 percentage points.
In the new year, that is, 2023, China's grain authorities once again put forward a new goal, that is, soybean planting100000 mu or more in 2023, to ensure that the soybean oil area is stable at 350 million mu or more, and strive to expand again.
However, judging from the trend of soybeans since last year, some of them are unsatisfactory, so farmers' willingness to plant has become the focus, and there are two main influencing factors:
The first is the price and income of beans.
Although soybean is also feed grain, its domestic output has not been high, and its dependence on foreign countries is high. More than 80% of soybeans are imported.
On the one hand, because the cultivated land is limited, the output is not high, and the output of the three staple foods in the early stage is guaranteed, so soybeans mainly rely on imports. On the other hand, the yield of soybean is not as good as that of corn, and its comprehensive income is also lower than that of corn.
Especially after seed expansion last year, domestic soybean production increased, but overall consumption was sluggish and demand was weak last year. Although soybeans have stepped out of the "high opening" situation at harvest, the subsequent prices have fallen because they cannot support consumption.
The decline in soybean prices is an important factor affecting farmers' enthusiasm for planting.
The second is the weather factor.
Besides the price, there is also the influence of the weather.
Especially in the past two years, extreme weather has occurred frequently. For example, last year, drought hit the south and floods hit the north. First, the quantity and quality of new soybeans in Hubei decreased. Later, due to the low accumulated temperature caused by floods in Northeast China, the soybean was small and the protein content decreased, which also became an important reason for the difficulty in soybean sales in the later period.
Based on this, the goal of continuing to expand soybean planting this year is somewhat severe. To achieve this goal, we need to rely on the efforts of the policy.
Soybean and corn planting areas have a high degree of overlap, so the northeast of the main corn producing area is also an important soybean producing area, so the main producing area still shoulders great responsibilities.
Last year, in order to improve soybean planting, soybean subsidies were greatly increased. However, this year, soybean prices have fallen. In order to ensure the planting area of the main producing areas, the policy side must fully consider the income of grain farmers and continue to improve the interest compensation mechanism for the main producing areas.
Therefore, it is expected that soybean subsidies will only increase this year.
At the same time, imported soybeans have a great influence on China. In 2022, the soybean import volume was 910.08 million tons, which was 5.6% lower than last year, and the soybean import volume decreased for the second consecutive year.
It is expected that imported soybeans will continue to shrink in 2023, and it is expected to achieve three consecutive declines.
Let's look at the situation of corn.
Although both corn and soybean opened higher at harvest, and the price of soybean fell later, corn remained firm, mainly because of the gap between supply and demand of corn.
Affected by high wheat prices and high import costs, corn substitutes have decreased, which makes domestic corn demand return and become an important force supporting corn prices.
Since the corn harvest, farmers are reluctant to sell, which makes the progress of corn purchase and sale slow and the price has been hovering at a high level.
Considering that soybean production will continue to expand and increase this year, corn production cannot be reduced. It is expected that the key word of corn policy this year is "stable".
On the one hand, it is the stability of supply.
This includes both domestic production, imports and substitution.
In terms of domestic output, it is expected that the corn subsidy will be the same as last year, while the import probability will still be the quantity exceeding the quota.
On the other hand, price stability.
This is also a basis for us to judge that it is difficult for corn to plummet after the year. The original planting areas of corn and soybean are highly overlapped, and the competition between them is fierce. At this juncture, it is difficult for food prices to plummet. Even if there is selling pressure after the year, it will be adjusted in time to stabilize prices.
Therefore, the "one mention and one stability" of soybeans and corn after the year will basically run through 2023, and the No.1 document in 2023 will be mentioned.