Note: Originally, the financial crisis in the United States was not within my research scope, and since I bid farewell to finance six years ago and devoted myself to the knowledge research and popularization of the commercial circulation industry, I have repeatedly said that I will no longer set foot in financial research. I will continue to prepare for the celebration of the 30th anniversary of reform and opening up, write my own research series on Cantonese businessmen, and concentrate on my own projects. However, I still can't calm down. Over the past six months, I have devoted unprecedented energy to the financial crisis in the United States. Because, I made a serious study and personal investigation of the financial crisis that occurred in Asia from 65438 to 0997, and wrote down nearly one million words of research results, many of which once again aroused my memory today. There is a complex or thrust that makes me involuntarily discuss the American financial crisis.
Since 2006, the financial crisis in the United States has intensified, and today, it has finally spread into a raging fire and started to burn wantonly. Although the American government and even its major allies are trying their best to put it out, and all countries in the world are expecting it to evolve in a good direction, in fact, no one can predict when the fire will burn. How far has it spread?
In connection with China's national conditions and long-term economic development and changes, we will not make an in-depth study of the economies of the United States and China at first, but make a summary of how China should view this crisis and the enlightenment it can get from it. After nearly a month's research experience, I think, can we get the following eight inspirations?
1. Is this financial crisis in the United States a "turning point" in the economic prosperity that lasted for more than 100 years, starting from industrialization at the end of 19 and becoming the world economic hegemon after World War II? In other words, after nearly 300 years of development from the east to the west, the economic development of the United States has been like a "ripe" apple, which began to rot from the inside. Furthermore, the world economic center dominated by the dollar has started a new shift, and the United States has begun to take the road of Britain 150 years ago.
In other words, this American financial crisis is the beginning of a long-term recession, great transformation and great adjustment of the American economy. Although it may not be a tragic crisis in the information underdeveloped era of 1929- 1933, its appearance is equivalent to the crisis in Britain around 1840, which means that the fate of an extremely prosperous empire has begun to turn. The nature and types of crisis are completely different from those in the past. If you can't see this clearly, all analysis will often be blind.
It is also worth mentioning that the germination of the American financial crisis should be in the 1990s. After the extreme prosperity of Clinton's new economic development, the United States lost the leading direction of future economic development. So, on the one hand, it caused disasters to the outside world, delayed and carried its own crisis, thus igniting the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (and hindered the solution of the financial crisis and economic recovery in Southeast Asia, trying to "share" the fruits of economic growth in Southeast Asia as much as possible in the form of crisis), launched the second Iraq war (pulling and commanding the world with energy), launched the Yugoslav war (slowing down the development and rise of the euro zone) and the Afghan war, and naturally implemented a global strategy to curb the "China threat" These frequent wars and troubles brought to the world are essentially aimed at delaying the recession of the American economy; On the other hand, in China, financial instruments are used to guide the world to participate in creating a bubble economy and maintain this false prosperity.
This process and background from qualitative change to quantitative change deserves our deep thought, and it is not appropriate to talk about the crisis alone. If the "interpretation" of this crisis is not in place, misleading the public, it is better to ask these experts to be silent! Don't talk nonsense if you don't understand!
Second, the US financial crisis has more advantages than disadvantages for China and is a great opportunity for China. China has accumulated a large amount of funds for 30 years, and is entering the initial stage or rising stage of a century-long prosperity, which is what I once said: "The American economy is in the late stage of a century-long prosperity, while China is in the early stage of a century-long prosperity. The financial crisis in the United States happened to an old man in his sixties and seventies, while the economic difficulties or crisis in China happened to a young man in his twenties and thirties. This effect is absolutely different. Therefore, in a sense, the American crisis is an opportunity for China. " What are the specific benefits? What are the disadvantages? I will analyze it in another article. Although, I am not saying that "we will support whatever the enemy opposes", one thing needs to be clear, that is, the harm of the US financial crisis to China is not as serious as some experts say, and we should look at its occurrence and evolution with a positive, optimistic and dialectical attitude. China should continue to go its own way, and there is no need to worry about other people's mistakes and pains.
Third, the US financial crisis is a powerful driving force for China's economic and market transformation. 1997 the southeast Asian financial crisis has dealt a blow to China's fast-growing economy, and since then the policy concept of "stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand" has been put forward. The export-oriented economic model supported by the traditional system (such as the division of domestic and foreign trade and the encouragement mechanism of "earning foreign exchange through export") has a strong foundation in all parts of China. So ten years later, "expanding domestic demand" is simply a slogan in many places. For example, Guangdong's logistics system, policy system and investment attraction system are basically designed and operated around the export-oriented economy. This is also the reason why Guangdong's ports are developed and the inter-provincial transportation system, especially the inter-provincial highway transportation, lags far behind the Yangtze River Delta. Obviously, the American financial crisis in 2008 can't tolerate some local leaders who are proud of their exports to pursue "extroversion" unilaterally. Strong pressure will surely push local governments to really pay attention to expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption, and even launch a "consumption revolution" and "circulation revolution" similar to Japan in the 1960s. Although this is already a "late revolution", after all, its occurrence will bring great changes and progress to China society, thus truly laying a market foundation for China, the largest economic power. At the same time, local government leaders who have a tendency to blindly worship foreign capital should also start to wake up and pay full attention to how to tap domestic private capital and integrate it into their own economic growth.
Fourth, the so-called "bailout" is often "helping the poor and helping the rich", which is unpopular. We should try to avoid letting the poor pay for the rich. In a country, the "right to speak" of the rich and the power to influence politics are much stronger than ordinary people, especially the disadvantaged groups. Wall Street financial institutions injured in the American financial crisis obviously have unprecedented influence on American politics, and even some officials of the Ministry of Finance are from Wall Street. Therefore, after the American financial crisis broke out, the government's "bailout" was repeatedly used. Despite the opposition letter from 120 experts, even rejected by the House of Representatives, it is still a powerful force under the alliance of the world's largest "financial oligarchs".
The reasonable logic of the market is that since these market participants made a lot of money in the high period of market prosperity and led to today's ending in the wrong decision and way, they should pay for these mistakes and pay the price for them. Saving the market: always encouraging mistakes. How to make money is the business of the rich, and the losses are borne by all taxpayers. In my opinion, the crisis is another "reward" for these decisions and behaviors, and it is a necessity for reasonable adjustment. "Saving the market" is often the next policy.
5. In crisis management, the government often over-trusts its own ability and expands its power. From the media reports, we know that quite a few people question the government's ability to "save the market", that is, can it be saved? You know, the government itself has an unshirkable responsibility for the formation of the current crisis. So, can the government play the dual role of "igniter" and "fireman"? Obviously, in the modern market conditions, especially in the global market background, the so-called "rescue" role of the government is quite limited. Of course, the government can't ignore the crisis and must deal with it, but it doesn't mean "saving the market". "Saving the market" is a "savior" attitude, while "crisis management" is an attempt to resolve the negative impact of the crisis as a party to the crisis. Without restraint, they often do things beyond their power and ability. Therefore, in this case, how to treat the role of the government rationally, how to restrain the government's behavior in an institutionalized way as much as possible, and how to restrain the government from amplifying its own power are important theoretical and practical issues that must be considered in the process of economic democratization.
6. Does the American financial crisis mean that China's capital securitization is going too fast? In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has basically completed the road of "monetization of assets", but the subsequent road of "capitalization of money" has made very slow progress because of "emphasizing foreign capital over domestic capital", especially ignoring private capital. Even to a certain extent, it can be said that China's industrialization process is dominated by foreign capital, and private capital has not been effectively expanded with the deepening of industrialization process, but has been repeatedly suppressed. It can be said that this is also one of the deepest contradictions and problems in China's economy. Unfortunately, influenced by speculation and various interest groups, China embarked on the road of "capital securitization" under the condition that "currency capitalization" was very insufficient, that is, the road of securitization went too far, so that the stock market became a pure "gambling market". The securities market is not a natural development of the market economy and financial market to a certain stage, but an abnormal over-development. Under the background that the investment channels for private investment in the real economy are too narrow and high-quality investment opportunities are scarce, a large amount of funds directly flood into the stock market and become a part of bubble capital, which does more harm than good to the economy. After nearly 200 years of development and growth, the financial market in the United States began to be securitized and virtualized on a large scale only in the past 30 years. However, China's economy has advanced the process of securitization prematurely, which is actually an act of haste makes waste.
7. There are a group of "money worshippers" who blindly believe in American finance in China's financial practice departments and academic circles. For a long time, because China's education system regards "English" and "Mathematics" as the core subjects of the entrance examination, many highly educated and overseas students are quite good at these two courses. Because these people, especially hundreds of thousands of English teachers in China, spend a lot of energy and time on learning English and understanding the United States, unconsciously "saying that they will be American" and invisibly showing "pro-American".
It is not necessarily a bad thing to be "pro-American" or pro-other countries, but once it reaches the level of superstition, it loses its rational judgment and is prone to problems. In China's financial circles, especially among top managers, quite a few people have a strong American complex, so it is extremely easy for them to think about China's financial problems with the United States as the center. China Exchange Fund has purchased bonds from Blackstone, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has long held a large amount of foreign exchange in China in US bonds. The author believes that although there are many factors at work, it is undeniable that a considerable number of investment decision-makers have not really considered China and global economy and finance, but have only made judgments from the perspective of their own interests or from the perspective of exaggerating the "rounder moon" in the United States.
I think some financial people who have studied in the United States or even worked hard on Wall Street are not familiar with the national conditions of the United States or China, or even really understand finance and economy, except for being good at English and mathematics. They just like to use some "technical analysis tools" or "financial engineering technology" to show their abilities. I admire the wisdom and ability of some of them, but at the same time I especially doubt the scientific nature of their decisions.
Eight, the university's professional settings blindly catch up with the world's first-class, imitate American universities, and the harm begins to appear. I have been teaching for more than 20 years and strongly advocate the development of three courses and majors: one is the comparison between Chinese and western cultures, the other is marketing, and the third is circulation economics. But on the other hand, it strongly opposes paying too much attention to two majors: one is law and the other is financial engineering. The reason why we oppose the latter two is that under the current conditions, the conditions for vigorously setting up the legal profession are not mature, whether it is the teaching staff or the social system environment. As for the "financial project", it was completely set up by a group of professors who were not familiar with China's financial development for their own interests, regardless of social needs.
The financial crisis in the United States is undoubtedly related to financial engineering. Although I am not against financial innovation, I have always doubted the practical feasibility of this financial engineering technology in China. At least for a long time, it is not necessary for universities to offer such majors to train such talents. However, there is an upsurge of "financial engineering" in the major setting of China University. I hope this American financial crisis can pour some cold water on this upsurge and cool it down. This also shows from another aspect that the specialty setting of China University is divorced from social reality, which is blind and arbitrary, and has reached a very serious level.
In fact, the American financial crisis has had a lot of impact on China. For example, how does China view its economic crisis? Will China's first economic crisis come? Does the American financial crisis mean the beginning of the end of dollar hegemony? Does it mean that the world multi-currency system in which RMB participates begins to sprout? I said in the book Euro Out (published in 1998) that "Hua Yuan" has become a currency as strong as the US dollar? How much effect does expert opinion have on policy formation under the existing system? How to treat the security and stability of capital. These will not be analyzed one by one.