This social contradiction will definitely be solved. Does it mean "excess productivity" at that time, that is, the output of various industries and categories can far exceed the material and cultural needs of the people at low cost, which may not be far away.
However, the most important thing now is that agriculture is still limited by cultivated land and weather, and industry is also limited by energy and labor.
Although there are vertical farms, the cost is not dominant, because producing crops requires a lot of energy, not sunlight. If the price of energy, especially electricity price, can be reduced enough to offset the cost of large-scale planting, storage and transportation of fossil energy, vertical farms can be established around cities, and agriculture can produce grain, vegetables and meat wherever it is needed, regardless of land and weather. Regardless of political factors, people all over the world don't have to go hungry and realize the freedom of meat, eggs and milk.
Three-dimensional farm is a new indoor planting method, which makes full use of resources and space. It adopts soilless solution cultivation method, which can convert sewage into electric energy, greatly reduce energy cost and provide more food.
Most factories want to expand production capacity or change products. The biggest bottleneck is not manufacturing equipment, but it is difficult to find a large number of qualified skilled workers quickly. However, training skilled workers is time-consuming and expensive. The robot does not have this concern. As long as the program is changed, the product A can be produced one second ago and the product B can be produced the next. But why not popularize it? First, because artificial intelligence technology is not proficient enough. First, because some industries are not cheaper than labor when calculating energy costs, the prices of many products are delayed because of high labor costs, such as the clothing industry. But with the passage of time and the development of technology, all these can be solved.
We might as well sort out the factors that restrict productivity.
vitality
In order to reduce energy prices, nuclear energy is the best choice.
Fourth generation nuclear power technology
20 12 On February 9th, Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Station, the world's first high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power station with the characteristics of the fourth generation nuclear power, started construction again. Shidaowan Nuclear Power Station is jointly built by Huaneng Group, Tsinghua University and China Nuclear Construction Group. It is the first high-temperature gas-cooled reactor demonstration power station with independent intellectual property rights in China, and the first modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor commercial scale demonstration power station with the safety features of the fourth generation nuclear energy system in the world.
Nuclear energy system of thorium-based molten salt reactor
Molten salt reactor uses high-temperature molten salt as coolant, which has the characteristics of high temperature, low pressure, high chemical stability and high heat capacity. It does not need heavy and expensive pressure vessels, and is suitable for building compact, lightweight and low-cost small modular reactors. In addition, molten salt reactor adopts waterless cooling technology, which can run with only a small amount of water, and realize efficient power generation in arid areas. Molten salt reactor's high-temperature nuclear heat can be used for power generation, industrial heat, high-temperature hydrogen production and carbon dioxide hydrogen absorption to produce methanol.
Controlled nuclear fusion with higher energy density and security is also on the way.
At present, the fully superconducting tokamak nuclear fusion experimental device (EAST) in China is being tested, and the International Thermonuclear Fusion Experimental Reactor (ITER) is also under construction. Several private companies, such as General Fusion, TAE Technology and Energy Singularity Energy Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., have also started to design or build commercial controlled nuclear fusion devices.
Labor force
As long as robots can adapt to more industries, labor is not a problem.
According to the data provided by the International Federation of Robotics, on February 6th, 2022, the global operating inventory of industrial robots reached a new record of about 3 million, with an average annual growth of 13%(20 15-2020).
More and more industrial robots have been applied to all walks of life, such as the "unmanned wharf" in Yangshan Deepwater Port, the 5G future factory built by China Mobile Zhejiang Company in cooperation with Boss Electric Appliances, and Xiaomi's "black light factory".
20211.4-The global market turnover of professional service robots reached US$ 6.7 billion (sample method), increasing by 12% in 2020. At the same time, the turnover of new consumer service robots increased by 16%, reaching $4.4 billion.
If you pay attention to the epidemic situation in COVID-19 or this Winter Olympics, you will know that more and more service robots are coming to us, such as food delivery robots, disinfection robots and fully automated kitchens.
resources
Resources are not insufficient, but are not recycled, and most of them are wasted.
At present, many resources are wasted and eventually buried or burned. If there are enough robots to classify, there will be enough energy to turn waste into treasure, so most metals and other resources can be recycled. If fossil energy can be replaced by electric energy to a certain extent, there will be no shortage of polymer compounds made of oil, natural gas and coal, such as plastics, chemical fibers and rubber.
We may not be far from the era of overproduction.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle is not science or technology, but morality.
If you feel that any viewpoint in this article is contrary to you, or you object to the viewpoint in this article, it proves that you are a normal person.
Please don't apply the ideas in this article to your present life. Productivity is far from surplus. Please work hard and study hard.
One day, I will ride the wind and waves, raise the Yun Fan and cross the sea. -Tang Li Bai, "Gone forever"