Not long ago, I was discussing why the stock market was so depressed, and I'm afraid I wouldn't want to reflect on the problem of "the stock market is overheated but not too hot" The current stock market seems to be overheated rather than overheated, but the undeniable fact is that the internal overheating of the stock market remains the same. The problem reflected by the hot and cold of the stock market is the fundamental crux of the capital market.
The 39th National Idol Singer Competition World Advertising Conference
Listen to passion, new forces and sexy new trends for free.
Although the "National Nine Articles" question that listed companies pay more attention to financing than return, at present, it seems that the balance of policies is more inclined to give full play to financing functions and pay more attention to the return on investment in the capital market. At present, although the country is trying to control the overheating of investment, the stock market expansion has never cooled down, and the issuance rate of new shares remains high, which means that the phenomenon of overheating of stock market expansion not only exists now, but will continue to be high even after economic regulation is in place.
The issuance of convertible bonds and subordinated debt set off a wave of money-circling in turn like a wheel.
Listed companies keen on circling money always use "development is the last word" to block investors' mouths, and a capital adequacy ratio has therefore become the reason for almost all bank stocks to "open their mouths". China Merchants Bank (Information Market Forum) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Information Market Forum) even put forward refinancing plans totaling 654.38+0 billion and 654.38+0.2 billion respectively. China Unicom emphasizes two advantages. The major shareholder is actually penniless, but it needs about 5 billion yuan from the tradable shareholders, and its earnings per share will be diluted because of the expansion of capital stock. Almost all companies that intend to refinance have painted a bright future when they circle money, but the big spenders in the past have become big losers. For example, Zhongguancun lost 633 million yuan, top software (information forum) lost 389 million yuan, Tianda Genius (information forum) lost 382 million yuan, Quanxing shares (information forum) lost 654.38+77 million yuan, lotus gourmet powder (information forum) lost 654.38+45 million yuan, and Chuangzhi software lost 98 million yuan. Who knows what will happen to today's big earners in the future?
Isn't the overall listing a hot innovation? From the investor's point of view, the overall listing focuses on the root causes of the disadvantages of related party transactions, while on the shareholder's side, it is not so much a propeller to accelerate development as a large-scale cash machine. It is precisely because of this that some people talk about financial innovation or increase the rights and interests of circulating shareholders, often setting traps for circulating shareholders instead of making pies. TCL's long-term success is nothing more than taking a 2.5 billion overall listing and a 2.5 billion spin-off listing. Fortunately, the CSRC did not accept it, otherwise even Zhuanggu Delong would like to squeeze into the ranks of the new blue chip (information market forum) in the name of absorption and merger.
Other hot or controversial, it is indisputable that the fund issuance is obviously overheated, which is obvious. Even a conservative figure, the new funds in the first half of the year have far exceeded 654.38+000 billion. This not only exceeded the total initial public offering last year, but also nearly doubled the overall size of securities investment funds. Fund is also a kind of money-circling behavior in essence. At least at present, except for sponsors, shareholders and fund managers, ordinary citizens are basically hungry people without income. There is no reason to think that it is urgent to vigorously develop the capital market before the investor's return problem is solved. Although compared with foreign fund predators, China's funds are inevitably dwarfed, but compared with their own, such development speed is a bit too fast.
A while ago, small and medium-sized stocks were activated before the spring breeze, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once seemed to repeat the farce of "directly treating Hangzhou as Bianzhou".
Undeniably, the warming of small-cap stocks on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen reflects investors' support for the important decision of establishing a multi-level capital market. However, the introduction of small and medium-sized board means another way to make money, and the risk is self-evident. At the same time, we can't help but notice that this "small and medium" is not that "small and medium". Before the "small and medium-sized" has not yet become a reality, the so-called price comparison effect hyped by this "small and medium-sized" is only an expectation after all. Some market forces scrambled to speculate on small and medium-sized stocks before the launch of the small and medium-sized board, which artificially caused the overdraft of the price comparison effect in advance. Then, when the SME board is really launched, whether its market performance is "good" or "bad" may become uncertain.
According to the barrel theory, how much water a barrel can hold depends on the length of the shortest board, not the longest one. Controlling investment overheating is obviously the main contradiction in such a sensitive period. The stock market is no exception.
For the stock market, treating a long-term development plan as an instant snack to circle money not only overdraws the positive effect of "National Nine Articles", but also seriously damages the interests of investors. The negative impact of the unbalanced development caused by the positioning deviation of going deep into the bone marrow is fundamental and cannot but arouse vigilance. □ Huang Xiang
"Stock trading by the whole people" can only show that there are many people who stock trading now. How can we reach the whole people? It's just an exaggeration In fact, "national stock trading" is a good thing.
First, people have increased their knowledge of financial management and learned new ways, methods and means of financial management. It is the exertion of wisdom that cultivates a new concept of financial management and exercises the psychology of taking risks and the ability to prevent risks.
Second, China people's long-standing habit of saving money has been challenged. Ordinary people have some money on hand for emergencies. In the past, putting money in the bank was safe and appreciated, but now it is inconvenient and there is not much interest. The state will deduct 20% interest tax, which is equivalent to putting it in the bank for nothing. When the national economy is improving, the stock market is a barometer of the national economy. Now the stock market is very hot, and the money on hand is not urgent. Why not deposit it in the bank? It is better to play in a vibrant stock market.
Third, the state issues a large number of funds, and brokers use this fund to play games in the stock market like a duck to water, from which they can make huge profits and make a fortune! QFII foreign investment is deeply rooted; Hot money from home and abroad swarmed in; Domestic companies and groups actively participate in liquidity and so on. Do you think the stock market can not be hot? Even if you don't want it to catch fire, you can't help it!
Fourth, the control policy is pale and powerless, and the combination boxing has little effect. Unless: 1 Increase the stamp duty on stock transactions to achieve the purpose of cooling down. But this will take a huge risk, otherwise it will plunge the stock market into darkness. It is not conducive to economic development and social stability and harmony. 2. It is possible and feasible to cancel the interest tax of 20% on personal bank deposits. The 20% interest tax in the realization stage is only a small part for the country, but it is a large sum for the people. Compared with the bank's interest tax, the stamp duty obtained by the state from the stock market is quite amazing. For example, the daily trading volume of the stock market reaches 300 billion, and the state gets 300 million tax revenue from it. Therefore, the income from printing tax is far greater than interest tax.
Fifth, in countries with prosperous stock markets, brokers and fund management companies are the beneficiaries. Whether ordinary people invest or speculate in it is entirely their own mentality. The key is how the management should guide the people to manage their finances and guard against risks; How to strictly disclose the information of listed companies; How to supervise the operation of listed companies and help people guard against risks is not only an article and several slogans, but also responsible for hundreds of millions of investors!