But this question was not so difficult to answer before. Thirty years ago, when choosing to save money or buy a house, most people chose to buy a house before saving money, because having a house was the basis of their existence, and the house price was not high at that time, and they could still save money after buying a house. Twenty years ago, most people chose to save money before buying a house, because the pressure of buying a house was already great, and they needed to be thrifty to afford a house. 10 years ago, most people would choose to buy a house, but they just "pooled their money to buy a house", because saving money alone may not be enough to outrun the rise in house prices, and the subsequent time is mainly to repay the mortgage, so saving money is basically impossible.
So, why does saving money or buying a house become a problem for people now? The main reason is that there are two voices in the property market at present. One thinks that house prices will rise sharply in the future, because the overall economic situation is not good in 2020 and the real estate market can rise against the trend, indicating that real estate is still an important economic pillar, so house prices will rise sharply in the future. On the other hand, I think that house prices will plummet in the future because the overall bubble is too big at present. With the continuous regulation, the bubble will burst one day, so the house price will plummet in the future.
There are many factors that affect house prices. Judging from the above two points, it seems somewhat biased, and the judgment of the property market should be combined with multiple angles. Before choosing to save money or buy a house, we can look at three major trends in the future property market:
1, urban differentiation intensified.
According to the data, as of February 20 19, China's overall urbanization rate has exceeded 60%, reaching 60.6%, while it was only 33.3% when it was reformed in 1998, which is equivalent to maintaining the average annual growth rate of 1.3%, and the proportion of urban household registration reached 44.38%. In addition to rural areas entering cities, countless graduates and migrant workers go to first-tier, second-tier and coastal cities to seek development during graduation season and work season every year. Therefore, for such a city, a certain housing demand can still be guaranteed every year.
As economist Ren Zeping said, house prices have long depended on the population, and the population also represents the overall demand of the property market. Therefore, for some popular cities, the demand for buying houses will increase every year, so house prices will be relatively stable. For some remote third-and fourth-tier cities and small counties, the demand for the property market is decreasing due to the continuous loss of population all the year round.
In addition to the differentiation between cities, the interior of cities is also constantly divided. To give a simple example, the price gap between the two sides of Shangbu Road in Futian, Shenzhen is obvious. The house price on one side is generally above100,000 yuan, while the house price on the other side is generally below 80,000 yuan, with the largest difference reaching1.20,000 yuan/. Mainly because your side is rich in various resources. Therefore, due to the different allocation of various resources, the housing prices within the city are also differentiated. When house prices fluctuate, places with large resource advantages are more flexible, and areas with scarce resources are less flexible.
2. The regulation of the property market is still centered on "no speculation"
As mentioned above, the overall house price has entered a stable trend before 2020, so is the regulation relaxed? The answer is no. Relevant data show that in the first half of 2020, the property market regulation was carried out 304 times, an increase of 20% over last year, indicating that the property market regulation is still in progress. More importantly, it is 202 1, which is also the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan. In the planning outline released last year, it described the real estate market as follows: "Adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and rent and purchase at the same time to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." It can be seen that at least in the next five years, housing will remain the core of regulation.
Then, the ultimate goal of housing price regulation is naturally not to hope that housing prices will plummet, because once housing prices plummet, it will trigger various chain reactions and have a great impact on the economy. Therefore, the direction of regulation will only make the overall trend more stable and eliminate the property market bubble step by step.
3. The capital control of the property market will be stricter.
We know that the sharp rise in housing prices has not only made it difficult for people to buy houses, but also caused problems such as the marginalization of the real economy and the difficulty of economic circular development. Therefore, we must control the funds in the property market. Starting this year, the property market will usher in two major regulatory measures. One is the so-called "three red lines": 1, and the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment is greater than 70%; 2. The net debt ratio is greater than100%; 3. The short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1. Mainly requires developers to limit the flow of funds, reduce debt, so that the property market surplus money back to the market.
The second regulation is the "loan restriction order" recently implemented by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the central bank, which divides banks into five grades and sets the "personal loan ratio" and "real estate business loan ratio", which is equivalent to setting the "upper limit" for the funds flowing into the property market. Therefore, in the future, banks will limit certain funds for mortgage loans to developers, and the loan review for multi-suite holders will be more stringent.
Therefore, under the "three major trends" of the future property market, the answer to the question of buying a house or saving money is obvious: for those who just need no house, they can choose to buy a house without worrying about the sharp drop in house prices in the future, but they should carefully consider the location selection and try their best to choose popular urban core lots. For those who want to invest in a house, it is better to save money by investing in real estate, because the overall increase in house prices will gradually stabilize in the future, and the overall increase will definitely be less than the expenditure cost of investing in real estate.
With extra money in your hand, what would you choose? Radio 0 0 0% Save 0 0% Buy 0 0% Other Investment Voting