Bismarck believes that there is no unconditional and absolute security. In a closed system composed of several big countries, the rapid rise of a country's security index will inevitably arouse the fear of other countries, and then promote the alliance of checks and balances. In view of this, we must clearly distinguish the core interests related to the survival of the country and allocate resources strictly around this interest in order to avoid the danger brought by fantasy. However, William II and his assistants Holstein and Tirpitz pursued the purely subjective goal of "absolute security". They do not pay attention to the evaluation of core interests, nor do they consider how to coordinate means. Instead, we use uncompromising slogans such as "I think" and "great powers should" to guide national defense construction. The result can only be "self-proof" and turn the conflict from possibility into reality. Therefore, during Bismarck's helm, Germany did not vigorously develop its navy.