After 20 15 Volkswagen's "diesel door", European countries felt the impact of the so-called clean diesel technology, so starting from 20 16, some countries put forward a timetable to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. Basically, around 2040, many European countries plan to stop selling gasoline/diesel vehicles.

At the TEDA forum of 2065438+07, officials of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology first talked about the topic of "no burning", saying that the timetable of "no burning" was also being studied in China. Since then, there has been a gust of wind every year, and everyone is wondering when we will officially announce this timetable.

Now it seems unlikely that there will be a "ban on burning" in China.

On September 16, at the 2020 Global New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference, Wang Binggang, the leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation engineering expert group, revealed a message that the version 2.0 of the energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap he participated in had passed the expert review last month. One of the important propositions is that China is not advised to set a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, nor does it advocate the slogan of "no burning".

As a big country actively engaged in environmental protection, why shouldn't China "ban burning"? Experts have three reasons. First of all, China is a vast country with complicated geography, climate, roads and use environment, which requires diversification of automobile technology and energy structure. Second, as a big energy consumer, it is unsafe for China to rely solely on electricity as transportation energy. Third, at present, China still mainly uses coal for power generation. Coal is not only a kind of energy, but also a precious resource that needs to be cherished. There are abundant oil and natural gas resources in the world.

I think the expert's reason is very good. After all, we are not those small Nordic countries, and every family can drive a pure electric car to go out. It is unrealistic to expect that all the vehicles in the northwest desert are pure electric vehicles.

Although the expert's opinion is for reference only, whether it really becomes an institutional policy still needs to be finalized, it is at least a positive signal.

So if China really doesn't "ban burning", can traditional car companies continue to sell fuel vehicles with peace of mind? Of course not. Energy conservation and emission reduction is the general trend. Even if the fuel truck will not quit the historical stage, it must change its identity.

Wang Binggang revealed that in the new technical route, it is not enough to rely solely on improving the efficiency of internal combustion engines, so the most effective way is to switch to hybrid power.

Here we need to add a little knowledge. In China, ordinary hybrid electric vehicles do not belong to new energy vehicles, but to energy-saving vehicles, so they cannot enjoy the preferential policies of unlimited purchase and subsidies. Only plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles belong to new energy vehicles and enjoy various concessions.

According to the information disclosed by experts, the overall goal of the latest new energy development technology roadmap is that energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for about 50% in 2035, and the automobile industry will basically realize electrification transformation. That is to say, fifteen years later, the new energy vehicles running on the road will be either hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles or pure electric vehicles, and pure gasoline and diesel vehicles will quit the stage.

This is not good news for the majority of traditional car companies. The only excitement is probably Japanese cars.

Even after so many years of vigorous promotion, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China is still very small, only 5% in 20 19, which means that 95% of the cars in China are still traditional fuel vehicles. In order to make most of these models electric-driven, I think many car companies would rather choose plug-in hybrid pure electric than turn to oil-electric hybrid, because this technology is difficult to break through.

If you make a ranking, then pure electric technology is the simplest, so at present, most Chinese and foreign car companies can come up with pure electric vehicles, whether it is oil to electricity or not, anyway, it is no problem to run on the road.

Followed by plug-ins. After all, the engine and motor systems should be mixed together. However, because of policy encouragement, car companies have put their energy into research and development. BYD and Geely in their own brands have very mature technologies and products. Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC and Great Wall also have some reserves, as do German, American and Korean brands.

The most difficult thing is the mixing of oil and electricity. European cars are not interested in technology made in Japan. They have diesel technology that they think is equally energy-saving (later beaten by emission fraud); Independent brands have no motivation, the difficulty coefficient is still high, consumers don't buy it (the price is higher), and it is thankless. In 20 16, Geely, Chang' an, Yuan Keli and Yunnei Power also formed the "China Hybrid Power Alliance", but the action was not great.

Therefore, at present, only Toyota, Honda and Nissan can buy hybrid cars in the domestic market, and a self-owned brand, Ke Ling Automobile, has launched a version of Ke Ling 0 1HEV.

No one wants to chew bones without meat, so domestic enterprises are very backward in hybrid technology. Zhang Shemin, chief engineer of the powertrain development department of Dongfeng Motor Corporation Technology Center, once said that our hybrid technology is 5- 10 years behind Japanese car companies.

Now, if the wind suddenly turns again and the mixture becomes fragrant, what should car companies do? Immediately overcome the technical difficulties and start to engage in special hybrid vehicles? After 15, can it reach an equal position with Japanese hybrids?

Or cooperate with Toyota and Honda. Anyway, Toyota has long opened the patent of hybrid technology. You are welcome to cooperate with others, but the distribution of benefits is hard to say.

It may be more realistic to continue to focus on plug-in hybrid pure electric technology, but this means that half of the domestic market may be handed over to the Japanese. Can other car companies be willing?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.