There are only two kinds of people in front of the house:

1. Everyone who owns a house wants the house price to go up (whether it is self-occupation or investment).

People who don't have a house want to fall (whether they can't afford it).

What crowd decides the house or affects the house price?

The former, look around to see who has a house,

1, government civil servant (with professional title)

2. Real estate developers (building houses)

3. The bourgeoisie (owns a house);

Then let's look at those who can influence the real estate policy.

The deputies to the National People's Congress (details are unknown) are mostly people with houses.

From the perspective of human nature, they are all self-interested, and the policies that come out can be imagined.

Why should the government control housing prices;

1, eliminate public grievances and maintain social stability.

2. Maintain economic order

There are only two situations when house prices come down:

1) China's economy is moving towards a stage of rational, coordinated and stable development;

2) China has big economic problems, and people leave for cities. . .

House or rigid demand:

1, housing prices have risen in recent five or six years, and the concept of "owning a house" has become something in China people's genes. This house culture cannot be eliminated in one generation;

2. It is not just a slogan, but the pursuit of China people from rural areas to cities, that is, the process of urbanization;

3. The era of inflation did not start from 20 10, but from 2006. The trouble is that most people in China simply have no mature investment channels to choose from. Now even laid-off workers know that putting money in the bank is a waste, but if you invest, it will only be real estate.

As long as the above three points are not changed, the house is still a rigid demand. Many people misunderstand that rigid demand is the demand of people who don't want a house, but it is not. Any policy is powerless in the face of economic trends. Even if people think that the 20 1 1 real estate regulation and control policy is more powerful, it is still only a process.

House price trend:

Before discussing this issue, the first thing to explain is:

1, the average house price is nothing, just some local governments' nonsense to deceive superior leaders and people at lower levels.

2. The ultimate decision maker of house price is the market, which depends on scarcity.

Before analyzing this problem, we must cut off some branches and leaves that affect the analysis of this problem.

The factors affecting housing prices depend on the scarcity of the market. The real estate market is mainly determined by banks, land and developers.

Among them, land is the primary factor and is subject to the government. So will the land price go up or down? I agree with the former.

Reason: 1. The land itself does not add value, but it increases the traffic and the surrounding community configuration. For example, if the capital is not in Beijing, or the development of the Beijing government is greater than people's expectations of buying houses, then the housing prices in Beijing will not be so high. Therefore, at least in the first half of 20 1 1, the land price of second-and third-tier cities should be maintained at 8%- 14%.

Secondly, banks are capital, and raising reserves and interest rates will curb purchasing power. However, the influx of hot money, the narrow rigidity of investment demand and the loopholes of government policies will all weaken the decline of purchasing power.

Third, developers, including the government, developers in a narrow sense, investors and actual property buyers, as well as some "unidentified" rent-seekers. We must see clearly the sincerity of the government in lowering housing prices. The government hopes to curb the purchase of houses under the condition of expanding domestic demand, but all the household appliances and automobiles that have to be "expanded" have been expanded, and those "domestic demand" are even "urgent"! Coupled with the local government's excessive dependence on the land market, as well as the panic of the introduction of property tax and the pressure of rising prices, will it make it possible for house prices to fall?

It is an indisputable fact that house prices were cold in February this year. However, in the late summer and early autumn of this year, housing prices in second-tier cities and third-tier cities (with large population and small area) will gradually rise, and the increase should be greater than the price increase.