This is a confirmed case of COVID-19 outside China announced by WHO on June 5th, 2004. In less than two weeks, this epidemic, which first broke out in China, quickly spread to the whole world.
Italy, the storm center of the European epidemic, has been extended to the whole country from the previously announced 1 1 area. Major Italian car companies and suppliers have urgently closed their factories.
FCA Group (Fiat Chrysler), the largest Italian automobile company, announced that it would take measures such as temporarily closing its factory to deal with the spread of COVID-19 epidemic. Lamborghini, a famous Italian super-running brand, also announced a temporary suspension of production.
Lamborghini closes its factory in Italy (source: autoindustriya)
When the national ban was promulgated, Italian Prime Minister Conte even quoted the famous words of British World War II Prime Minister Churchill, calling it Italy's "darkest moment". On the other hand, the United States also lost its previous "calmness" and declared a national "state of emergency" on Friday.
Under the cover of the nest, there are no eggs. As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry was hit hard in this epidemic. The butterfly effect caused by this has eroded from China automobile industry to the global automobile industry.
However, an interesting phenomenon is that with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, auto companies and suppliers are welcoming the resumption of work and production. China auto market, which suffered a fatal blow before, may become the main market of global auto revenue in 2020.
At present, the international market is changing rapidly, which proves once again that China may be the best place to invest and avoid risks in the world.
Air transport parts by suitcase.
European and American car companies have been hit hard.
Due to the crazy spread of the epidemic in Europe, the 90th Geneva International Auto Show, which was scheduled to open on March 3rd, was officially cancelled at the beginning of the month. This international auto show was founded at 1924, and was last cancelled during World War II.
To this end, the automakers who originally planned to participate in the Geneva Motor Show joined hands to launch a global live broadcast of new cars on March 3, from offline to online. However, the results of the live broadcast conference were not satisfactory. The press conferences of Mercedes-Benz and BMW even had "signal transmission problems", which were vomited by netizens.
20 19 Geneva motor show (source: carmudi)
So is the epidemic in the United States. According to the latest news from Bloomberg, the organizers of new york Auto Show announced on Tuesday that the annual new york Auto Show will be postponed to August due to the epidemic.
As the oldest and largest auto show in North America, new york Auto Show was born in 1900, attracting more than10 million visitors every year. According to official data, new york Auto Show brings more than 330 million dollars in economic benefits to new york and new york every year.
"Sales are definitely declining. We wake up in different worlds every day. "
John Luciano, chairman of the Volkswagen American Dealers Committee, made no secret of the impact of the epidemic on enterprises.
According to Bloomberg News, Standard & Poor's, an international rating agency, pointed out that audi ag is likely to be the automobile manufacturer most affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic because its sales in China account for nearly 40%.
Last Friday, due to some logistics problems caused by the epidemic, Volkswagen announced that its main factory in Torrell, near Barcelona, Spain, would stop production next Monday. It is estimated that the shutdown may last as long as six weeks, involving 7,000 employees.
In fact, the global spread of the epidemic has affected the development of the global automobile industry, and many European and American automobile companies even issued an early warning to the market.
Daimler warned that the global spread of COVID-19 brought great risks to its own business. "It may not only affect the sales situation in major markets, but also affect the production, procurement market and supply chain."
Kang Song Lin, CEO of Daimler Company, admitted that although its Mercedes-Benz brand has resumed production in Beijing, it is not yet possible to specifically measure the impact of the epidemic on Daimler's business.
On the other hand, Jaguar Land Rover is on the verge of production suspension due to the tight supply of parts-"We have been airlifting parts from China to the UK in suitcases to ensure that there are correct parts."
Oaida, CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, said that the company's factory in the UK was temporarily "safe" in the last two weeks, but it will be difficult to purchase parts from China in the next few weeks, and it is still necessary to be prepared to stop production.
According to Tata Group, since the end of February, Jaguar Land Rover Bromwich factory has started to stop production for four weeks, and the nearby Solihull factory will stop production intermittently until the end of March.
Trump announced that the United States has entered a "national emergency" (Source: Washington Post)
In addition, there have been several confirmed cases in Michigan, where the three major American auto giants gather. After the confirmed cases appeared in FCA's factory, it was reported that the factory had not stopped working, which also made the subsequent production more uncertain.
Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, auto industry analysts began to reduce the sales forecast of the US market in 2020. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam? Jonas said in a research report that the outbreak of "demand shocks" is expected to lead to a 9% decline in American car sales this year.
It is reported that in the first week of March, the automobile sales in the United States have dropped by 65,438+00% year-on-year. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, he predicted that sales in the United States would only drop by 65,438+0%-2% this year.
Research institute IHS? Markit even estimated that the novel coronavirus epidemic may reduce the global automobile production by more than 6.5438+0.7 million vehicles, which exceeds the global production of audi ag in any month.
Start a "fancy self-help"
"There is basically no problem in production now."
Li Xuefeng, vice president of Great Wall Motor's Xu Shui factory, said that 75% of employees have arrived at their posts, which used to be double-shift production, but now it is a single-shift production mode. Affected by the epidemic, it is estimated that 65,438+000% production capacity will be restored in mid-March.
It is understood that since February 18, the major vehicle production bases of Great Wall Motor have resumed production one after another, and the production capacity is gradually increasing.
Geely Xiao Chun Manufacturing Base resumed production (Source: CCTV)
Recently, in the program "Special Report on War Epidemic and Investigation on Resumption of Production" broadcast by CCTV, it was reported that Geely Automobile was rapidly resuming production with the help of Ningbo government departments.
At present, Geely's supplier 156 in Ningbo has fully resumed work, and its production capacity has recovered by more than 85%. The new cars produced after the holiday have begun to be delivered to customers.
Except Great Wall and Geely, the data of China Automobile Association show that as of March 1 1, the return-to-work rate of 23 enterprise groups closely tracked by the association (accounting for more than 96% of annual sales) reached 90. 1%, the return-to-work rate of employees was 77% and the return-to-work rate was over 40%. Among them, Changan, Chery, Jianghuai, Brilliance, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Yutong, Jinlong, Shaanxi Automobile and other 18 enterprises have all resumed work.
What is even more exciting is that recently, some car companies in Hubei, which are at the center of the epidemic vortex, have also reported good news of returning to work.
On Tuesday, a red-headed document dated March 9 showed that the COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Command of Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone (Hannan District) had approved the application of Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng passenger cars and their suppliers to resume work.
As one of the four major automobile industrial bases in China, relevant statistics show that in 20 19, Hubei Province produced 2,247,500 automobiles, accounting for nearly 10% of the total automobile production in China.
By the end of 20 18, 482 enterprises above designated size in Hubei automobile manufacturing industry, such as global parts giants Webster and Bosch, had set up factories in Wuhan.
At the same time, the supply of local spare parts enterprises has also been greatly affected by other provinces and cities and even some automobile enterprises around the world. Therefore, the early resumption of production of related industrial chains has become a top priority.
To this end, at the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism in the State Council held on Friday, Xin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, particularly emphasized that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has communicated with relevant local departments in Hubei to support the auto industry parts to resume work as a priority industry.
In order to ensure profits and sales and not lose face, car companies have begun to "fancy self-help".
For example, Dongfeng Peugeot-Citro? n Automobile has worked out a detailed plan for returning to work, involving transportation, catering, office space, protective materials, epidemic prevention and quarantine, emergency support and other aspects, and distributed epidemic prevention materials to dealers.
For example, SAIC Roewe launched six measures of "double decompression, double support and double care" around sales operation and after-sales service to empower dealers to decompress.
SAIC-GM-Wuling Mask (Source: Guan Wei)
If there is cross-border production of masks, it will not only help to fight the epidemic, but also perfectly realize the resumption of work and production, which can be described as a win-win situation. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD, GAC and many other car companies.
BYD even said that the number of masks it produces is increasing at a rate of 300,000 to 500,000 pieces per day. At present, it has reached the production capacity of 5 million masks per day, which is equivalent to 1/4 of the previous national production capacity.
There are also companies that directly choose to lay off employees and reduce salaries. For example, SAIC took the lead in announcing salary reduction, in which SAIC Chase cancelled some benefits, and reduced performance pay from E post17% ~ 57%; Weimar Automobile canceled the year-end bonus for all employees, and 13 salary was postponed to June.
In fact, whether it is an industry giant like SAIC or a new car-making force like Weimar, it is only a microcosm of the current industry dilemma.
12 In March, the latest data released by the China Automobile Association showed that in February this year, the domestic automobile production and sales were 285,000 and 365,438 respectively, down 83.9% from the previous month and 79.8% and 79. 1% respectively.
Although the measures to reduce the salary of car companies are not completely affected by the epidemic, car companies are forced to seize the opportunity of transformation to a certain extent under the epidemic.
It is understood that luxury car brands such as BMW, Audi and Tesla, joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, Ford, Buick, Toyota and Hyundai, independent brands such as Geely, Chang 'an and Great Wall, and more than 20 car brands such as Weilai and Tucki have all launched the "cloud selling car" service with zero contact with customers to find a "new way".
New weather in 2020
Do global car companies depend on the China market for their income?
"If it weren't for this epidemic, many people haven't realized how important China is in the global industrial chain."
Taking the automobile industry as an example, according to the research of Deloitte Consulting, at present, almost all the world-famous auto parts giants are located in China, and China is regarded as one of the production centers that radiate to the Asian and even global markets.
Among them, only Hubei has a large number of international mainstream parts enterprises, such as Bosch, Delphi, Valeo, Virginia, Visteon and Ambofu. Even if they transfer their production capacity to factories in other countries and regions, it is far from offsetting the impact of China's delayed resumption of work.
Distribution of some key auto parts suppliers in Hubei Province (source: Geshi Automobile)
As early as 65438+1October 29th, Bosch Group warned that Bosch's supply chain was heavily dependent on China. "We need to wait for the development of the situation. If this situation continues, Bosch's global supply chain will be interrupted. "
An Bofu said a few days ago that the epidemic has caused the company's operating income to decrease by 65.438+0.5 billion to 200 million US dollars, and its operating profit to decrease by 60 million to 80 million US dollars, much higher than expected.
In recent years, China auto parts enterprises have been developing and growing in the international market. According to the data of the International Trade Center, the proportion of parts produced in China has exceeded 30% of Japanese car companies, and South Korea is also close to this data; In the past 20 years, the dependence of European and American automobile companies on China parts has tripled to 20%.
Although it still lags behind the United States, Japan and Germany in the field of core components, it still occupies a large part of the market.
Data show that in 20 18, the total output value of China auto parts industry reached 38,455.5 billion yuan, and the export value of auto parts was 55,654.38+200 million dollars, accounting for more than 75% of all auto products. Some research institutions predict that the auto parts market in China will reach 4.3 trillion yuan in 20 19, and the export volume is expected to exceed 60 billion US dollars.
This is why even though China's auto parts enterprises only occupy the fourth place in the world, the suspension of production caused by the epidemic still restricts most international auto companies. It can also be seen that the China market plays an important role among mainstream car companies.
According to industry insiders, with the popularization of COVID-19 in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, the production and sales of multinational automobile companies in these areas will face great challenges.
In contrast, China's automobile market is gradually returning to normal, and the national level and various provinces and cities have successively introduced relevant policies to stimulate automobile consumption. In the second half of 2020 and even the whole year, the automobile industry may present a new phenomenon: the global automobile revenue will mainly depend on the China market, and China will also become an important cornerstone for the future development of the global automobile industry.
As Li Xinggan, director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said, after the outbreak, some foreign trade enterprises were unable to fulfill their sales orders, so some orders were transferred, which is a normal phenomenon in the field of trade and investment. The normal market mechanism is gradually recovering, and enterprises from all countries are welcome to cooperate with enterprises in China in industrial chain and supply chain.
"China has always been a hot spot for global enterprises to invest. The current changes in the international market once again prove that China may be the best area for investment hedging in the world. "
Write it at the end
As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry has not reached a low point in the world, but according to the development trend of the epidemic, countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are likely to break out on a large scale in the next few weeks, posing a challenge to the global automobile industry.
However, this may also be a signal, as Xu Heyi, chairman of BAIC Group, said: The turning point of the automobile industry has arrived. At present, just like the beginning of the era of great adjustment in the steel industry, today in the steel industry is tomorrow in the automobile industry.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.