First, after progress has become the theme of human society, the occurrence of crises is not only inevitable, but also many are bound to happen, because progress always comes hand in hand with risks, and crisis events have become a common problem in all countries in the world today. common problem.

Second, the more modern countries and societies develop and become more complex, so social crises are more likely to occur, which means that the possibility of low-probability events becomes greater. In this regard, "see foresight" ” is indeed a very useful saying of wisdom.

Third, globalization has connected all countries and regions, and this pattern of affecting the whole body means that events in any one part may affect other parts.