This article is the 332nd article in the column.

The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, "One cannot step into the same river twice." However, China's real estate market has embarked on a unified cycle three times at different times since 2008. ——Each round of economic pressure is accompanied by stimulus measures, followed by a round of sharp rises in housing prices. But in fact, the reason why philosophers can say such famous sayings means that they are really different. Every advancement means changes after trade-offs. This change in the real estate market first means that the space for trade-offs is getting smaller and smaller. It does not mean that in the past Inflation and liquidity stimulation will definitely bring growth momentum, because the cost is getting bigger and bigger.

New 4 trillion, how do you say it?

After the most famous 4 trillion yuan increase in 2008, China's housing prices have been "teaching people how to do things" with hard reality for more than ten years. The dispute between the bearish and bullish factions has long since disappeared, but The cycles of economic laws are beyond the control of human managers. Let me tell you my point of view: Real estate cannot be short or long, only stable.

The "new 4 trillion" will come again in 2022, and it is neither the original recipe nor the original taste.

The policy aspect is very simple. 4 trillion is mainly aimed at new infrastructure. This is not a new word. In the past few years, our various policy measures have used words in an endless stream. Now the words are no longer enough to stimulate people, but There is indeed a difference in content.

To make a long story short here, what is the new infrastructure mentioned this time?

It can be summarized as high-tech infrastructure, Internet infrastructure, what we are good at, our huge population base and vast land are needed, and we can take the lead in the track, basically all in Here it is.

So there is no real estate in the new 4 trillion keynote. Of course, we know that real estate and traditional infrastructure cannot be completely absent. It can be said that they are everywhere, but they are not the protagonists. In fact, what really needs attention in 2022~2023 is the issue of local debt. This topic has been repeated for many years, especially since the policy of strictly controlling local implicit debt and disposing of local financing platforms since 2018, coupled with the naked eye in the past year Visible land finance is declining (land sales are not as good as before). So with so much infrastructure investment, this time it is still necessary to return to local government bonds issuance, and the bonds must be issued as early as possible.

There were related voices at the end of last year that local governments would speed up the implementation of annual budgets, which naturally involves the implementation of expenditures and financing. Just yesterday on Valentine's Day, the Ministry of Finance, anxious for people's needs and thoughts, issued in advance a new local government debt limit of 1.788 billion yuan in 2022, of which the general debt limit is 328 billion yuan and the special debt limit is 1.460 billion yuan. . The special bonds here basically correspond to new infrastructure.

As for what to do about the local debt problem in the past, at this moment, we have to make a choice first, and it’s okay to press it or not.

The same trade-off also comes from another policy: the supervision of pre-sale funds for real estate development and commercial housing is relaxed. As long as the money in the supervision fund account is sufficient, some real estate companies can withdraw it for use. In short, just understand and loosen it, because in the past, the supervision of credit cards in various places was very strict, and I was afraid that I would not have enough money to complete the renovation of the house. Evergrande’s annual meeting mentioned that there are currently more than 50 billion in regulatory fund accounts for various projects.

Coupled with the relaxation of provident fund loan policies, a lot of trade-offs have been made. So as I mentioned earlier, I will not be bullish or bearish on real estate. I can only look at the policies. (Be careful), this is a requirement.

Two problems, one logic

The flowers have fallen out of favor, and now the real estate market has changed and can no longer be the main force driving the economy. The reason why I say this is for two reasons: 1. Housing prices have never been a barometer of the economy, but a reflection of policies; 2. There are some referenceable signs that show that the game of real estate comes from the game of internal circulation in our economy.

Let’s talk about a sign first, Vanke Yu Liang’s voice. In the past two days, Yu Liang directly summarized that real estate has entered the “Black Iron Age”. Since he proposed the “Silver Age” and later the “Bronze Age”, Now extending to Heitie, I always feel that Yu Liang is imitating Wang Xiaobo's "Era Trilogy" in his heart; different from Wang Xiaobo's maverick, Yu Liang's summary is more based on Vanke's status and real estate industry. To exert the influence of opinions based on the situation - not only to the market, but also to peers, but also to our own employees, and more importantly, to policy makers.

As the saying goes, listen to his words and watch his actions. Vanke is a good student representative who shouts to live. At the same time, after the Baowan dispute, most of his body has already joined the national team (from China Resources to Shenzhen Metro). Changes in shareholders); but the brand and background of Vanke since Wang Shi is that of a precise enterprise controlled by professional managers, doing all the right things, rational and refined, like an acquaintance around us who never shows emotions, you will always believe it He was right, but I could never get close to him emotionally.

I once suggested to my friends that when it is difficult to judge our situation, look at the sophisticated and self-interested people around us who are in the same situation as us. Regardless of their positions, their choices and actions must be the best. To understand, if you look at it without emotion and moral perspective. So when we look at Vanke now, everyone understands that Vanke's real choice is to "wait for the fish to die". It has funds on hand and has good credit, just like customers at the fish market who wait for the live fish on the stall to die so that they can buy it at a low price.

At this time we can think about the first question: If 4 trillion is to support real estate, real estate companies will slow down and many fish will not die. Then Vanke is waiting in the fish market. It will be lonely for a while. However, as a keen real estate top student, Vanke's understanding of the market cannot be that outrageous. Moreover, as a member of the national team and a big boss in the real estate industry, the conclusions that Vanke can grasp and judge must not be that simple.

Yu Liang spoke up at the outlining year-end meeting, talking about the black iron era, saying that evaluation depends on performance, ability, and cost control, and saying that his assistant will no longer book first-class air tickets. These are just knocks. Various managers of Vanke are beating up suppliers, shocking peers, and are also speaking out for higher places; but what Yu Liang said cannot be summarized into business and structure. Zhu Jiusheng, who is the president and CEO, can talk about this. As the leader, General Yu Liang has some craftsmanship. Perhaps Wang Shi's aura was too strong back then. It seems that Vanke's top leader must not be someone who focuses on business, but Yu Liang has done a good job in business, and his voice is the pragmatic speech of a manager and you can't fault it.

Then think about the second question: Evergrande boss Xu also put forward requirements for many Evergrande executives in 2022 at the management meeting, including the following aspects: 600,000 units of guaranteed delivery buildings , you cannot rely on selling assets at low prices to pay off debts, otherwise it will be difficult to pay off debts even if the assets are sold at low prices. The logic is correct and the attitude is correct. Let’s talk about how to implement it. Evergrande is the current benchmark for the collapse of real estate debt and credit, and it is also the one with the lowest completion rate of sales targets among the three major real estate developers in 2021. Although Country Garden and Vanke have not completed it, Evergrande's completion rate is only over 60%.

Evergrande is short of money, and is also groping for future disposal, but Boss Xu understands that selling assets at a low price is nothing more than exchange for immediate payment, but it will also reduce the overall funds that can be used to repay debts. This The logic applies to all current real estate developers. Even if the credit debt is not defaulted, sales discounts and promotions are fine, but no one can afford large-scale discounts, including Evergrande, which is a perennial price killer.

Therefore, the fish cannot die, and the fish cannot be sold cheaply. At this time, Vanke and others waiting next to the fish stall are still waiting, and the national team composed of various state-owned enterprises and central enterprises is still waiting. Moreover, at the beginning of this year, the central bank also announced that it would provide financial support for acquisitions of distressed real estate companies and would not be included in the three red lines.

The industry can't, but the company can, and the project can. The company can survive, but the project shares must be sold for money. At this time, it becomes a price issue. In other words, there is an internal game logic in the real estate industry. If you can get as much money as you want from this round of water release, you can go back and acquire some projects of other real estate companies that are short of money. Of course, if selling at a low price does not work, then you have to use the cash from these projects. To understand the flow, high-quality projects require quick payment before buyers and sellers can negotiate.

So the problem is left to the market and policy. Here are some data:

1. The growth rate of M2 supply in January was 9.8%, a new high, but it is not enough. Because the overall stock of social financing is around 320 trillion, to imagine the effect of the previous round of price increases and destocking, the historical data of an overall annual growth rate of 17% may not be enough.

2. In January, new loans to residents decreased year-on-year, but the amount of savings hit a record of 5.41 trillion. Where this money goes is still a problem.

3. Inflation in the United States is at a 40-year high, with CPI reaching 7.5%, and U.S. bond yields are about to exceed 2%. Under this situation, multiple rounds of interest rate hikes in the United States are bound to be on the way, leaving China The time is less than that of the men’s football team. If the water release is not completed during this window period, if we want to protect the exchange rate later, we must stop lowering interest rates and issuing large-scale money.

At this juncture of this year, various views on the property market are being debated endlessly. I would like to advise you to stop arguing about stances. The property market is not a stance issue. Look at policies internally and the United States, the global economy and the world externally. The trend of the epidemic depends on luck. But the most important thing is to--

Look at the confidence of most people.

Happy Lantern Festival!

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