If you want to survive in the futures market for a long time, you must learn to control risk exposure.

The so-called risk exposure is your opening position. If you open 100 lots of rebar long orders, you have 100 lots of risk exposure. If you open a long order of 100 lots of rebar and open a short order of 30 lots of the same contract, then you only have 70 lots of risk exposure.

If you want to make a profit in the futures market, you have to open a position. The trend is uncertain, and you may lose money if you open a position.

Loss is not terrible, because loss and profit are integrated into each other. You bear the risk of losing money before you have the chance to make a profit.

This is the essence of futures trading: if you want to make a profit, you must open up risk exposure.

The greater your risk exposure, the faster you will make profits, and of course, the greater your potential losses.

Right?

So since we want to survive in the futures market for a long time.

In fact, there are only two things to do: stop loss + position control.

Position control controls the overall size of the risk exposure, while stop loss controls the closing timing of the risk exposure.

In other words, for a single order, if your position is small and your stop loss is timely, you can survive in the futures market for a long time. This is the best way.

Because this is fundamentally about controlling risk exposure.

Of course, I can actually give you a more reliable suggestion, which is to place orders according to the capital ratio, a win-convert-lose-contract model.

On the basis of light position + timely stop loss, you add a little loss reduction. That is, as you lose money, reduce your position and continue to reduce your risk exposure. And the method is to slowly recover after making profits.

In this way, your probability of survival is greatly increased.

Because if you keep losing money, your position will get lower and lower until you make a profit.

You can refer to it.

Of course, if we simply consider the method with the highest probability of survival, it is actually not to do transactions, because doing transactions involves taking risks.

It is also a good choice to find a job in a futures-related industry, such as a senior executive of a futures company.

What do you think?

Like and support, thank you.

I think it is easy to survive in the futures market, but I am afraid that I don’t have the patience. After all, when I first started doing futures, most of them still lost money. If there are too many losses, some people may never step in again in this life; but at the same time, there may also be people who want to get back their losses. Under the premise of being unprofessional and not understanding trading, they end up losing more and more. After years of accumulation and careful calculation, I found that the number of losses was far beyond my imagination. I want to survive longer in the futures market. The first point is to operate with a small amount of money; the second point is not to stop losses frequently.

Small capital operations have been emphasized before. If you are not good at it, use big funds to give away money. As a novice, if you lack professionalism, the possibility of losing money is almost 100%. It's the same as sending money, but the amount given with small funds is less. Why don't you use small funds? In this way, even if you lose a small amount of money, you will still have a lot of money for subsequent operations. If you bet big money on your fortune, if you're wrong, you'll lose everything.

Most of the futures traders are retail investors, and retail investors with less than 100,000 account for the majority. If this amount of funds is used to open corn, it will not exceed 55 lots; if it is opened soybean meal, it can open up to 40 lots; if it is iron ore, it can only open 20 lots; if it is opened coke and rubber, it will only be 3-5 lots. If you look at the position alone, it is more advantageous to use 100,000 yuan of funds to do small varieties, because the number of positions held can be increased or decreased, and it cannot be a full position at the beginning. If you are trading coke or rubber, if you make a mistake, first of all, the cost of stopping the loss will be quite high, and secondly, the margin will be very high, resulting in the fact that the actual number of positions opened cannot be adjusted at all. In other words, if it is a futures product, it is best for small funds to do some small products. Although the volatility is not very large and it is not very popular, at least the risk is not that high. If you make a mistake, the principal will not be lost so fast. To borrow Buffett's famous saying, the three most important points in investing are: first, preserve the principal; second, preserve the principal; third, please refer to the first two items.

Generally speaking, there are more short-term traders who do futures trading. The characteristics are short holding time, chasing the rise and killing the fall, being unable to hold the order if you are right, being unable to hold the order if you are wrong, or frequently stopping losses. I am not against frequent trading, but I very much agree with this approach. Of course, this is based on the premise that your short-term level is relatively high. What I object to is frequent stop losses, especially large stop losses. Stop loss also means that you have made a mistake and been punished by the market. But there are some traders in this market. They chase the rise and kill the fall. They just entered the long order and found that it started to fall. Then they immediately backhand, but as a result, another line went up. Then he hurriedly stopped the loss. It had just gone up a few points, but when it looked like it couldn't go up any more, he placed a short order again. Unfortunately, things always happen one after another, and the market slowly picks up again.

I was originally long, but because I was not sure about the market situation, I changed my mind at will and constantly changed my direction during the transaction. As a result, I was confused. I lost money when I was doing it, and I also lost money when I was shorting.

The actual situation is that in an intraday level market, this kind of rise and fall is very normal. Even if there is a short-term decline in the upward trend, it is not surprising. After all, summer also has a few days of sudden cooling, but it still cannot change the fact of summer. You have to wait until you place the order, right? My capital is small to begin with, but if I stop the loss like this, I will lose all my money. Can I still catch the market when it comes? Some people I talked to recently said that they had suffered heavy losses, so much that they did not dare to open a position, and so much that they did not dare to lose any more. Even though the stop loss position had not been reached, he quickly stopped the loss and stopped the loss at all the places where the stop loss should not have been reached. The originally profitable order ended up being sold at a loss.

The difference between futures and gambling

On the gambling table, if the big number comes ten times in a row, in terms of probability, I believe that most people will press the small number next, and the tenth number will be small. Once the big comes out, more people will choose to bet on the small. People who originally bet on the small will bet more chips. Then the big comes out again for the twelfth time, and so on. If it comes out twenty times in a row, Big, there are probably not many people left at the gambling table. If there is another 21st big, how many people will be left?

Nine times out of ten bets, the one who is left will know how to stop. Yes, but I believe that if he often hangs around the casino, there will always be times when he doesn’t know where to stop. Some people on the Internet also say that he won a lot of money in the casino through probability and statistics. If it is true, it can only be one possibility of fund control. Well done, after all, the uncertainty in the casino cannot be solved by probability statistics

The biggest feature of the futures market is uncertainty. If there is certainty, even if it only appears in a year One second of certainty and the market will immediately collapse and cease to exist. So how to survive in a futures market that is like a casino?

Obviously, relying on a high probability of opening a position is far from enough for you to survive in the futures market

Of course, a high probability of opening a position is the basis

More importantly, there must be closing conditions corresponding to the opening conditions

Of course, the opening and closing conditions here must be clear, and there is no room for human choice

< p> If a transaction occurs, you must keep in mind the uncertainty of the market. If a loss exceeds expectations, the stop loss must be executed. This is the fundamental reason why it is different from gambling. Otherwise, the market is no different between you and the casino

The rule for opening and closing positions must be that the profit when making money is greater than the loss when losing money, which is what we call the profit-loss ratio

A high winning rate and a high profit-loss ratio are always what every trader dreams of. , but there is no method that has both a high winning rate and a high profit-loss ratio in a perfect market

The reason why an excellent trading opportunity appears in the market is because market participants made mistakes at a certain time There are a lot of people, so you need to wait for the opportunity and don’t make a move easily

Once you seize the trading opportunity, don’t let go easily until those who made the mistake admit defeat and leave the “gambling table”

All of these This is just an explanation of trading ideas. How to implement trading will take some time

In short, if you want to make long-term stable profits in the futures market, you must have a set of opening and closing trading rules that can withstand the test of the market. , there must be a fund management strategy and a risk control strategy

All these rules and strategies must be simple and clear. Only simple things can stabilize the market. Clarity is due to the needs of specific execution of transactions

Theoretically speaking, anyone can learn in the right way, improve trading performance, and achieve long-term stable profits

What discipline does futures belong to? It takes time to understand that the strict definition is a kind of metaphysics. It requires multi-faceted knowledge and well-developed left and right brains.

This is the art of recovering from failure. A short article to talk about sadness and peace.

The first element of survival: discipline

This cannot be overemphasized. Nine of the executives of the world's top 10 investment banks have military backgrounds. Discipline means being able to have the determination and determination to break the boat even in the most dangerous times. It means you will survive in the end. Survival is the most important thing.

The second element of survival: being able to summarize

There is nothing new under the sun, and there is not much new stuff in each independent market. Many people will sum up their experiences and lessons from their failures, and they will remember them forever ( Failure will not be summed up yet, and it will be cleared by the market soon), but valuable successful experience will not be summed up from success, which is the most terrible thing. The experience of success is often more important and valuable to the individual than the lessons of failure. After all, you are here to make money.

The third element of survival: financial management

The longer you do it, the better your skills and experience will become, and you will also have a sense of the market. Still can't continue to make money. The problem lies in financial management. If losses continue for a period of time, profits must be invested in diversified investments. In this way, you will have a good mentality, look at the market more objectively, and your level will be raised to a new level.

This question is very similar to a question I just answered. Here is a brief explanation of my point of view:

To survive longer in the futures market, it is best to achieve stability. Make a profit, or minimize your losses, at least to break even. Otherwise, long-term frustration and failure to make money will dispel your enthusiasm and make you leave the futures market as soon as possible.

So, how to survive longer in the futures market?

The first point: You must have the necessary technical analysis skills!

Trading futures is not about rolling dice and playing slot machines, blackjack and Texas Hold'em. Although there are certain mathematical principles that can improve the winning rate, the difference is that the trading time period is longer and there are more market variables within the stage. Unlike throwing dice, a few seconds determine the outcome.

Therefore, relevant technical analysis capabilities are the key to ensuring that you make money and less lose money in the futures market.

Futures trading is nothing more than earning the price difference. The process is to use technical analysis to find price differences. Just imagine, if you can't judge the direction of price movement or the position of entry and exit, you definitely can't judge the price difference, let alone profit.

The second point: You must have certain trading capabilities.

The so-called trading ability includes details such as fund management and risk control. This is a system-based operating system. People's subjective consciousness is too strong, especially during the transaction process, it is easy to become emotional and make irrational trading behaviors. The direct way for customers to solve this irrational behavior is to implement your transaction analysis results in an institutionalized trading method. This is the most effective way for traders to overcome human weaknesses and control losses.

Any good or great trader has a trading system that suits him. There is no doubt about this!

The third point: It is still a topic that Laosheng talks about, which is how customers overcome their own psychological barriers.

The so-called psychological barriers are simply greed and fear. The former makes you want to make more when you make money, which is irrational. The latter is worried about losing more when you lose money or making wrong operations in advance when the normal profit and loss of funds fluctuates.

This is a common problem among all people and a common psychological phenomenon in the futures trading process.

Regarding trading psychology, there are too many truths in the market, so I won’t repeat my views. will be the most efficient method. Write these psychological problems on paper and stick them next to the computer to remind yourself at all times.

When I come into contact with futures professionals, there are mainly three risk control methods, from low to high: 1. Set stop loss and take profit with iron discipline. 2. The operating amount is 5% of the total assets, and maintain a good attitude. 3. The highest level of playing futures is called "Ding Busi" (a character in Jin Yong's martial arts novels). Ding Busi can't do more than four in a day. I mean, he can't do more than four in a year. Only start when you are sure. You usually play around and design a model yourself. For example, there are six basic conditions for entering the market. Five of the six are applicable. You don't enter the market. You just pay attention to it and don't operate it. Once you enter the market, you should complete a wave, which may take as little as five or seven days, or as many as two or three months, to see how the market develops.

1. The foreign exchange market, stock market, and futures market are known as the three major risk markets in the world. Their common characteristics are: high volatility, strong uncertainty, and difficult to predict.

2. In financial market investment, the key to success or failure lies in probability and effective risk control. Improving the probability requires judgment of the direction of the macro trend, judgment of market rhythm, and the application of gaming skills; the application of effective risk control in position control, combination, weighting, stop loss, etc.

3. The futures market is a leveraged transaction. Leverage amplifies human nature, and greed and fear are the fatal weakness of futures trading.

4. Futures trading requires a perfect combination of theory and practice. Short-term winners are just a coincidence of luck and do not represent a better level. Without the three to five years of continuous profit-making practice in a bull-bear cycle, no one would dare to boast that they have mastered the key to futures trading.

5. In the long run, 80% of people in the stock market lose money and 98% of people in futures lose money. The difference is in futures leverage, but the biggest similarity is that people who master financial skills are extremely scarce. 99% of scholars, influencers, and analysts are liars who follow the script. Few celebrities are aware of this.

6. Futures trading is not just a simple technical transaction, but also a grasp of the overall pattern and direction, and a wise philosophy of choice!

Open few positions, don’t do it if you are not sure, avoid full positions and heavy positions, stop losing, carry orders, trade frequently, rush to the top and find the bottom, trade against the trend, place orders with the trend, and move the stop loss to capital preservation after making a profit Position, just hold it and look to expand profit margins. Few people continue to make profits because people are afraid of greed and immaturity. When trading is mature, steady profits will be made. You can send me a private message to communicate with us

I am trading The market has been around for a long time. If you want to survive here, you have to pay attention to many things, including fund management, patience, trading techniques, and mentality control. These are important and many people have spoken about them.

The two most important words I want to say are, quit being greedy.

After trading for a long time, I found that the trading market is a paradox game. The purpose of trading is to make money, and the more the better. Naturally, you should use as much funds as possible, but this may lead to overweight positions and problems with fund management.

Try to seize most of the opportunities you think of, but this may lead to frequent transactions.

The trading industry is different from other industries. Efforts and gains are not directly proportional, and sometimes they may be inversely proportional. The more you want to find more opportunities, the more you want to use as much funds as possible. Not only can you not make money, On the contrary, the more you do, the more you lose, and haste makes waste.

People who want to make a fortune in the futures and stock markets are not good at trading. People who ask how much money they can make in this market before they even enter the market will end up miserable. I have seen people who can make long-term profits because they have a normal mind and it is okay to make money. Those who want to get rich end up broke.

Take only one bowl of the surging river water. Only those who maintain a normal mind from the bottom of their hearts can survive in this market for a long time.

I like the questioner’s attitude towards the futures market, because more people think about how to get rich in the futures market; the questioner’s thinking is the same as mine: long-term.

A good start to trading in the futures market is to have a peaceful mind, a correct understanding of trading, and reasonable expectations for returns.

Here are some details:

There are three elements of futures market trading: technology, capital management, and mentality.

To survive in the futures market, you only need two things: carefully formulate a trading plan and strictly implement the trading plan.

First of all: establish a trading system, then implement it seriously and gradually improve it. Combine the two or three indicators you are most familiar with. Determine the direction, stop loss, and take profit. These are all set. If you are a newcomer to the futures market, you must be prepared not to make money for two years, because this period is the running-in period for you, the market, and the system.

Secondly: Understand the important aspects of fund management and conduct transactions according to the principles of fund management.

Again: have a peaceful mind (very important), consider survival first, and then consider profitability. As long as you maintain a peaceful mind, there will be less fear and greed in trading; your execution will be better. When desires are great, the weaknesses of human nature will be magnified. When human nature is magnified, it will be more difficult for us to control ourselves.

In the early stages of trading, be sure not to set too high a target. Just make a trading plan seriously and strictly implement the plan.

Summary: Trading is a very simple thing, and it is the human mind that is responsible.